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Playoff Odds & Projections

2026 season forecast · 12-team CFP · CFT Model

Projected CFP Bracket

projected seeds · favorites advance

First-round byes1TTU2ND3IU4OSU

First Round

8MIA62%

9PSU38%

5UGA81%

12JMU19%

6ORE68%

11TA&M32%

7UTAH52%

10MISS49%

Quarterfinals

1TTU67%

8MIA33%

4OSU65%

5UGA35%

3IU66%

6ORE34%

2ND56%

7UTAH45%

Semifinals

1TTU44%

4OSU56%

3IU69%

2ND31%

Championship

4OSU44%

3IU56%

Champion

Indiana

Big Ten

18

Team	W	Conf%	CFP%	SF%	Champ%
Indiana	10.0	39	92	62	28.9
Ohio State	9.8	29	86	49	17.9
Oregon	9.8	18	81	35	8.1
Penn State	9.5	6	46	8	0.9
Iowa	8.5	4	24	4	0.5
USC	8.7	3	24	3	0.1
Washington	7.7	1	9	1	0.2
Illinois	7.8	<1	4	<1	0.1
Michigan	7.5	<1	3	<1	0.0
Nebraska	5.7	<1	<1	0	0.0
Northwestern	5.6	0	<1	0	0.0
Minnesota	5.5	<1	<1	0	0.0
Rutgers	5.6	0	0	0	0.0
Wisconsin	5.2	0	0	0	0.0
Maryland	4.8	0	0	0	0.0
UCLA	4.4	0	0	0	0.0
Michigan State	3.6	0	0	0	0.0
Purdue	3.6	0	0	0	0.0

SEC

16

Team	W	Conf%	CFP%	SF%	Champ%
Georgia	10.2	47	84	35	6.6
Ole Miss	8.9	18	48	16	3.3
Texas A&M	9.0	14	41	10	1.4
Vanderbilt	8.4	6	24	4	0.6
Oklahoma	8.0	5	15	3	0.2
Tennessee	8.1	3	12	1	0.0
Alabama	7.7	2	9	1	0.0
Texas	7.6	3	8	1	0.1
Missouri	6.3	<1	<1	<1	0.0
LSU	6.5	<1	<1	0	0.0
Auburn	6.6	<1	<1	<1	0.0
South Carolina	5.9	<1	<1	0	0.0
Florida	4.9	0	0	0	0.0
Mississippi State	4.9	0	0	0	0.0
Arkansas	4.3	0	0	0	0.0
Kentucky	4.2	0	0	0	0.0

Big 12

16

Team	W	Conf%	CFP%	SF%	Champ%
Texas Tech	10.6	61	95	56	15.8
Utah	9.9	28	74	24	3.4
BYU	8.4	6	18	2	0.0
Arizona	7.5	2	4	<1	0.0
Kansas State	7.6	<1	2	<1	0.0
Houston	7.7	1	2	<1	0.0
Kansas	7.4	<1	1	0	0.0
TCU	6.8	<1	<1	<1	0.0
Iowa State	6.7	<1	<1	<1	0.0
Arizona State	6.0	<1	<1	0	0.0
Baylor	5.6	<1	<1	0	0.0
UCF	5.3	0	0	0	0.0
Cincinnati	5.0	0	0	0	0.0
West Virginia	4.7	0	0	0	0.0
Colorado	4.1	<1	0	0	0.0
Oklahoma State	2.9	0	0	0	0.0

ACC

17

Team	W	Conf%	CFP%	SF%	Champ%
Miami	10.0	60	80	22	3.0
SMU	8.8	16	22	1	0.1
Virginia	8.4	7	11	<1	0.0
Louisville	7.8	7	9	<1	0.0
Clemson	8.2	3	6	<1	0.0
Pittsburgh	7.5	2	2	<1	0.0
Georgia Tech	7.4	2	2	<1	0.0
Florida State	7.1	<1	1	0	0.0
NC State	7.5	2	1	<1	0.0
Duke	5.8	<1	<1	0	0.0
California	5.6	<1	<1	0	0.0
Wake Forest	5.7	<1	0	0	0.0
Virginia Tech	4.9	<1	0	0	0.0
Boston College	3.6	0	0	0	0.0
Stanford	3.4	0	0	0	0.0
North Carolina	3.3	0	0	0	0.0
Syracuse	3.1	0	0	0	0.0

FBS Independents

2

Team	W	Conf%	CFP%	SF%	Champ%
Notre Dame	10.9	0	96	47	8.5
UConn	8.0	0	2	<1	0.0

Pac-12

8

Team	W	Conf%	CFP%	SF%	Champ%
San Diego State	7.2	35	2	<1	0.0
Washington State	6.3	22	<1	0	0.0
Boise State	6.4	19	<1	<1	0.0
Texas State	6.1	13	<1	0	0.0
Fresno State	6.2	9	<1	0	0.0
Utah State	4.5	1	0	0	0.0
Oregon State	3.8	<1	0	0	0.0
Colorado State	3.3	<1	0	0	0.0

American Athletic

14

Team	W	Conf%	CFP%	SF%	Champ%
South Florida	9.5	25	34	3	0.1
North Texas	8.3	24	16	1	0.1
East Carolina	7.9	10	5	<1	0.0
Memphis	7.9	7	5	<1	0.0
Navy	7.8	17	4	<1	0.0
Tulane	7.7	7	4	<1	0.0
UTSA	7.5	6	2	0	0.0
Army	7.2	4	<1	0	0.0
Tulsa	4.9	0	0	0	0.0
Temple	4.7	<1	0	0	0.0
Florida Atlantic	4.6	<1	0	0	0.0
UAB	3.9	0	0	0	0.0
Rice	2.7	0	0	0	0.0
Charlotte	2.3	0	0	0	0.0

Mountain West

10

Team	W	Conf%	CFP%	SF%	Champ%
UNLV	7.9	31	4	<1	0.0
Hawai'i	8.1	24	3	<1	0.0
New Mexico	7.8	19	1	<1	0.0
Air Force	8.0	17	<1	0	0.0
North Dakota State	7.0	8	<1	0	0.0
San José State	4.9	<1	0	0	0.0
Nevada	4.7	<1	0	0	0.0
Wyoming	4.7	<1	0	0	0.0
Northern Illinois	4.3	<1	0	0	0.0
UTEP	3.1	0	0	0	0.0

Sun Belt

14

Team	W	Conf%	CFP%	SF%	Champ%
James Madison	9.2	58	38	2	0.1
Old Dominion	7.7	21	5	<1	0.0
Marshall	7.6	8	<1	0	0.0
Louisiana Tech	6.5	6	<1	0	0.0
Troy	6.7	3	<1	0	0.0
Louisiana	6.9	2	<1	0	0.0
Arkansas State	6.0	1	0	0	0.0
South Alabama	5.3	<1	0	0	0.0
Southern Miss	5.3	1	0	0	0.0
Georgia Southern	5.1	<1	0	0	0.0
App State	4.9	<1	0	0	0.0
Coastal Carolina	4.6	<1	0	0	0.0
Georgia State	4.0	0	0	0	0.0
UL Monroe	2.9	0	0	0	0.0

Mid-American

13

Team	W	Conf%	CFP%	SF%	Champ%
Toledo	9.4	56	27	<1	0.0
Western Michigan	7.6	15	<1	0	0.0
Miami (OH)	7.5	16	<1	0	0.0
Ohio	6.8	5	<1	0	0.0
Buffalo	6.4	2	<1	0	0.0
Central Michigan	6.2	3	0	0	0.0
Eastern Michigan	6.0	1	0	0	0.0
Bowling Green	5.4	<1	0	0	0.0
Sacramento State	5.1	<1	0	0	0.0
Akron	4.8	<1	0	0	0.0
Ball State	4.2	<1	0	0	0.0
Kent State	3.3	<1	0	0	0.0
Massachusetts	2.8	0	0	0	0.0

Conference USA

10

Team	W	Conf%	CFP%	SF%	Champ%
Western Kentucky	7.6	47	<1	0	0.0
Liberty	7.4	13	<1	0	0.0
Jacksonville State	7.3	19	<1	0	0.0
Kennesaw State	6.1	9	<1	0	0.0
Florida International	6.3	6	0	0	0.0
Delaware	5.2	2	0	0	0.0
Middle Tennessee	5.1	1	0	0	0.0
Missouri State	5.1	2	0	0	0.0
New Mexico State	4.2	<1	0	0	0.0
Sam Houston	3.2	0	0	0	0.0

National Title Odds

top 14 · win it all

#	Team	%
1	Indiana	28.9
2	Ohio State	17.9
3	Texas Tech	15.8
4	Notre Dame	8.5
5	Oregon	8.1
6	Georgia	6.6
7	Utah	3.4
8	Ole Miss	3.3
9	Miami	3.0
10	Texas A&M	1.4
11	Penn State	0.9
12	Vanderbilt	0.6
13	Iowa	0.5
14	Oklahoma	0.2

Playoff Field Odds

top 14 · make the CFP

#	Team	%
1	Notre Dame	96.5
2	Texas Tech	95.1
3	Indiana	92.3
4	Ohio State	85.5
5	Georgia	84.4
6	Oregon	81.2
7	Miami	80.3
8	Utah	73.9
9	Ole Miss	48.3
10	Penn State	46.4
11	Texas A&M	41.2
12	James Madison	38.2
13	South Florida	33.8
14	Toledo	27.1

National Title Odds

top 14 · win it all

#	Team	%
1	Indiana	28.9
2	Ohio State	17.9
3	Texas Tech	15.8
4	Notre Dame	8.5
5	Oregon	8.1
6	Georgia	6.6
7	Utah	3.4
8	Ole Miss	3.3
9	Miami	3.0
10	Texas A&M	1.4
11	Penn State	0.9
12	Vanderbilt	0.6
13	Iowa	0.5
14	Oklahoma	0.2

Big Ten

18

Team	W	Conf%	CFP%	SF%	Champ%
Indiana	10.0	39	92	62	28.9
Ohio State	9.8	29	86	49	17.9
Oregon	9.8	18	81	35	8.1
Penn State	9.5	6	46	8	0.9
Iowa	8.5	4	24	4	0.5
USC	8.7	3	24	3	0.1
Washington	7.7	1	9	1	0.2
Illinois	7.8	<1	4	<1	0.1
Michigan	7.5	<1	3	<1	0.0
Nebraska	5.7	<1	<1	0	0.0
Northwestern	5.6	0	<1	0	0.0
Minnesota	5.5	<1	<1	0	0.0
Rutgers	5.6	0	0	0	0.0
Wisconsin	5.2	0	0	0	0.0
Maryland	4.8	0	0	0	0.0
UCLA	4.4	0	0	0	0.0
Michigan State	3.6	0	0	0	0.0
Purdue	3.6	0	0	0	0.0

SEC

16

Team	W	Conf%	CFP%	SF%	Champ%
Georgia	10.2	47	84	35	6.6
Ole Miss	8.9	18	48	16	3.3
Texas A&M	9.0	14	41	10	1.4
Vanderbilt	8.4	6	24	4	0.6
Oklahoma	8.0	5	15	3	0.2
Tennessee	8.1	3	12	1	0.0
Alabama	7.7	2	9	1	0.0
Texas	7.6	3	8	1	0.1
Missouri	6.3	<1	<1	<1	0.0
LSU	6.5	<1	<1	0	0.0
Auburn	6.6	<1	<1	<1	0.0
South Carolina	5.9	<1	<1	0	0.0
Florida	4.9	0	0	0	0.0
Mississippi State	4.9	0	0	0	0.0
Arkansas	4.3	0	0	0	0.0
Kentucky	4.2	0	0	0	0.0

Big 12

16

Team	W	Conf%	CFP%	SF%	Champ%
Texas Tech	10.6	61	95	56	15.8
Utah	9.9	28	74	24	3.4
BYU	8.4	6	18	2	0.0
Arizona	7.5	2	4	<1	0.0
Kansas State	7.6	<1	2	<1	0.0
Houston	7.7	1	2	<1	0.0
Kansas	7.4	<1	1	0	0.0
TCU	6.8	<1	<1	<1	0.0
Iowa State	6.7	<1	<1	<1	0.0
Arizona State	6.0	<1	<1	0	0.0
Baylor	5.6	<1	<1	0	0.0
UCF	5.3	0	0	0	0.0
Cincinnati	5.0	0	0	0	0.0
West Virginia	4.7	0	0	0	0.0
Colorado	4.1	<1	0	0	0.0
Oklahoma State	2.9	0	0	0	0.0

ACC

17

Team	W	Conf%	CFP%	SF%	Champ%
Miami	10.0	60	80	22	3.0
SMU	8.8	16	22	1	0.1
Virginia	8.4	7	11	<1	0.0
Louisville	7.8	7	9	<1	0.0
Clemson	8.2	3	6	<1	0.0
Pittsburgh	7.5	2	2	<1	0.0
Georgia Tech	7.4	2	2	<1	0.0
Florida State	7.1	<1	1	0	0.0
NC State	7.5	2	1	<1	0.0
Duke	5.8	<1	<1	0	0.0
California	5.6	<1	<1	0	0.0
Wake Forest	5.7	<1	0	0	0.0
Virginia Tech	4.9	<1	0	0	0.0
Boston College	3.6	0	0	0	0.0
Stanford	3.4	0	0	0	0.0
North Carolina	3.3	0	0	0	0.0
Syracuse	3.1	0	0	0	0.0