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Playoff Odds & Projections

2025 season forecast · 24-team FCS playoff · CFT Model (SRS-based)

Projected FCS Bracket

projected seeds · favorites advance

First-round byes (top 8)1SDST2MTST3NDSU4SDAK5UCD6TAR7UIW8SFA

First Round

9MONT78%

24DUQ23%

10IDHO74%

23UTC26%

11LEH47%

22UND53%

12RICH60%

21TOW40%

13MER70%

20URI30%

14ACU66%

19TNTC34%

15VILL59%

18MONM41%

16ILST46%

17UTM54%

Round of 16

1SDST88%

17UTM12%

2MTST93%

15VILL7%

3NDSU90%

14ACU10%

4SDAK79%

13MER21%

5UCD77%

12RICH23%

6TAR59%

22UND41%

7UIW51%

10IDHO50%

8SFA50%

9MONT50%

Quarterfinals

1SDST92%

8SFA9%

4SDAK66%

5UCD34%

3NDSU90%

6TAR10%

2MTST86%

7UIW14%

Semifinals

1SDST75%

4SDAK25%

2MTST56%

3NDSU44%

Championship

1SDST52%

2MTST48%

Champion

South Dakota State

MVFC

10

Team	W	Conf%	Bid%	SF%	Champ%
South Dakota State	12.1	40	100	82	32.5
North Dakota State	11.5	51	100	80	27.3
South Dakota	11.1	9	100	58	7.0
Illinois State	7.9	<1	61	3	0.1
North Dakota	7.3	<1	45	2	0.1
Youngstown State	5.4	0	2	0	0.0
Southern Illinois	5.0	<1	1	0	0.0
Northern Iowa	3.9	0	<1	0	0.0
Indiana State	3.1	0	0	0	0.0
Murray State	2.3	0	0	0	0.0

Big Sky

12

Team	W	Conf%	Bid%	SF%	Champ%
Montana State	11.8	82	100	81	28.5
UC Davis	9.1	9	95	18	1.7
Montana	8.6	4	79	8	0.3
Idaho	7.8	4	74	9	0.7
Northern Arizona	6.5	1	28	1	0.1
Eastern Washington	6.1	<1	16	<1	0.0
Portland State	4.9	<1	3	<1	0.0
Sacramento State	5.2	<1	2	<1	0.0
Weber State	4.4	<1	<1	0	0.0
Idaho State	4.0	0	<1	0	0.0
Cal Poly	3.3	0	<1	0	0.0
Northern Colorado	1.6	0	0	0	0.0

Southland

10

Team	W	Conf%	Bid%	SF%	Champ%
Incarnate Word	8.7	51	87	9	0.3
Stephen F. Austin	9.0	32	85	6	0.2
SE Louisiana	7.6	7	35	<1	0.0
McNeese	7.0	6	22	<1	0.0
Lamar	6.3	2	10	<1	0.0
Nicholls	5.5	1	2	<1	0.0
Houston Christian	5.5	<1	1	0	0.0
East Texas A&M	4.0	<1	<1	0	0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley	2.7	0	0	0	0.0
Northwestern State	1.2	0	0	0	0.0

Big South-OVC

9

Team	W	Conf%	Bid%	SF%	Champ%
UT Martin	7.4	47	61	4	0.3
Tennessee Tech	7.9	21	56	2	0.1
Southeast Missouri State	6.8	16	32	1	0.0
Tennessee State	7.2	10	29	<1	0.0
Lindenwood	5.1	2	3	<1	0.0
Gardner-Webb	4.9	2	3	0	0.0
Western Illinois	4.4	<1	<1	0	0.0
Eastern Illinois	3.9	<1	<1	0	0.0
Charleston Southern	2.9	<1	<1	0	0.0

Southern

9

Team	W	Conf%	Bid%	SF%	Champ%
Mercer	8.1	42	71	4	0.3
Chattanooga	7.4	22	49	1	0.1
East Tennessee State	7.5	16	45	1	0.0
Western Carolina	7.4	15	42	<1	0.0
Samford	5.6	3	5	0	0.0
The Citadel	4.6	<1	<1	0	0.0
Wofford	4.7	<1	<1	0	0.0
Furman	3.7	<1	<1	0	0.0
VMI	2.3	0	0	0	0.0

UAC

9

Team	W	Conf%	Bid%	SF%	Champ%
Tarleton State	9.1	37	85	6	0.2
Abilene Christian	8.0	32	67	4	0.1
Southern Utah	7.1	14	38	1	0.1
Central Arkansas	6.6	9	22	<1	0.0
Eastern Kentucky	5.8	5	8	<1	0.0
North Alabama	4.9	2	2	0	0.0
Austin Peay	4.9	1	1	0	0.0
West Georgia	3.7	<1	<1	0	0.0
Utah Tech	2.5	0	0	0	0.0

Patriot

8

Team	W	Conf%	Bid%	SF%	Champ%
Richmond	8.6	46	79	3	0.1
Lehigh	8.8	35	71	2	0.1
Holy Cross	6.7	14	24	<1	0.0
Bucknell	6.1	3	5	<1	0.0
Lafayette	5.5	2	3	0	0.0
Fordham	3.5	<1	<1	0	0.0
Colgate	3.2	<1	<1	0	0.0
Georgetown	3.6	<1	<1	0	0.0

CAA

14

Team	W	Conf%	Bid%	SF%	Champ%
Villanova	8.3	18	66	3	0.0
Monmouth	8.0	21	59	1	0.0
Rhode Island	8.1	14	54	2	0.0
Towson	7.7	18	49	1	0.1
Stony Brook	7.1	9	29	<1	0.1
New Hampshire	6.3	7	14	<1	0.0
William & Mary	6.5	4	13	<1	0.0
Elon	6.2	4	10	<1	0.0
Hampton	6.4	2	9	<1	0.0
Maine	5.8	2	5	<1	0.0
UAlbany	5.2	<1	<1	0	0.0
Campbell	4.1	<1	<1	0	0.0
Bryant	3.1	0	0	0	0.0
North Carolina A&T	1.8	0	0	0	0.0

FCS Independents

2

Team	W	Conf%	Bid%	SF%	Champ%
Merrimack	6.2	68	6	0	0.0
Sacred Heart	5.2	32	<1	0	0.0

Ivy

8

Team	W	Conf%	Bid%	SF%	Champ%
Harvard	7.4	38	0	0	0.0
Yale	7.3	30	0	0	0.0
Dartmouth	6.2	16	0	0	0.0
Columbia	5.7	8	0	0	0.0
Pennsylvania	5.7	5	0	0	0.0
Cornell	4.6	2	0	0	0.0
Brown	3.2	<1	0	0	0.0
Princeton	3.0	<1	0	0	0.0

MEAC

6

Team	W	Conf%	Bid%	SF%	Champ%
North Carolina Central	8.4	42	0	0	0.0
South Carolina State	8.3	50	0	0	0.0
Morgan State	6.3	6	0	0	0.0
Norfolk State	4.5	<1	0	0	0.0
Howard	4.0	<1	0	0	0.0
Delaware State	3.4	0	0	0	0.0

NEC

9

Team	W	Conf%	Bid%	SF%	Champ%
Duquesne	7.6	55	58	<1	0.0
Central Connecticut	7.5	15	29	<1	0.0
Robert Morris	7.0	12	19	0	0.0
Long Island University	6.2	14	15	0	0.0
Wagner	5.3	1	1	0	0.0
Mercyhurst	3.7	1	1	0	0.0
St. Francis (PA)	4.5	1	1	0	0.0
New Haven	3.0	0	0	0	0.0
Stonehill	1.8	0	0	0	0.0

Pioneer

11

Team	W	Conf%	Bid%	SF%	Champ%
San Diego	7.5	40	42	<1	0.0
Butler	7.4	18	20	<1	0.0
Drake	6.7	19	19	0	0.0
Presbyterian	7.1	11	12	0	0.0
St. Thomas (MN)	5.8	5	5	0	0.0
Morehead State	6.2	4	4	0	0.0
Davidson	5.4	2	2	0	0.0
Dayton	5.0	1	1	0	0.0
Valparaiso	3.5	<1	<1	0	0.0
Stetson	3.0	<1	<1	0	0.0
Marist	2.3	0	0	0	0.0

SWAC

12

Team	W	Conf%	Bid%	SF%	Champ%
Jackson State	9.7	81	0	0	0.0
Alabama State	7.2	5	0	0	0.0
Grambling	6.9	2	0	0	0.0
Florida A&M	6.8	3	0	0	0.0
Alcorn State	6.3	1	0	0	0.0
Prairie View A&M	6.2	<1	0	0	0.0
Southern	6.1	6	0	0	0.0
Alabama A&M	6.0	2	0	0	0.0
Texas Southern	4.7	<1	0	0	0.0
Bethune-Cookman	4.3	<1	0	0	0.0
Arkansas-Pine Bluff	3.0	0	0	0	0.0
Mississippi Valley State	2.5	0	0	0	0.0

National Title Odds

top 14 · win it all

#	Team	%
1	South Dakota State	32.5
2	Montana State	28.5
3	North Dakota State	27.3
4	South Dakota	7.0
5	UC Davis	1.7
6	Idaho	0.7
7	Incarnate Word	0.3
8	Montana	0.3
9	Mercer	0.3
10	UT Martin	0.3
11	Tarleton State	0.2
12	Stephen F. Austin	0.2
13	Richmond	0.1
14	Abilene Christian	0.1

Playoff Field Odds

top 14 · make the field

#	Team	%
1	South Dakota State	100.0
2	Montana State	100.0
3	North Dakota State	100.0
4	South Dakota	100.0
5	UC Davis	94.7
6	Incarnate Word	87.2
7	Stephen F. Austin	85.0
8	Tarleton State	84.9
9	Richmond	79.5
10	Montana	78.6
11	Idaho	74.4
12	Lehigh	71.1
13	Mercer	71.0
14	Abilene Christian	66.8

National Title Odds

top 14 · win it all

#	Team	%
1	South Dakota State	32.5
2	Montana State	28.5
3	North Dakota State	27.3
4	South Dakota	7.0
5	UC Davis	1.7
6	Idaho	0.7
7	Incarnate Word	0.3
8	Montana	0.3
9	Mercer	0.3
10	UT Martin	0.3
11	Tarleton State	0.2
12	Stephen F. Austin	0.2
13	Richmond	0.1
14	Abilene Christian	0.1

MVFC

10

Team	W	Conf%	Bid%	SF%	Champ%
South Dakota State	12.1	40	100	82	32.5
North Dakota State	11.5	51	100	80	27.3
South Dakota	11.1	9	100	58	7.0
Illinois State	7.9	<1	61	3	0.1
North Dakota	7.3	<1	45	2	0.1
Youngstown State	5.4	0	2	0	0.0
Southern Illinois	5.0	<1	1	0	0.0
Northern Iowa	3.9	0	<1	0	0.0
Indiana State	3.1	0	0	0	0.0
Murray State	2.3	0	0	0	0.0

Big Sky

12

Team	W	Conf%	Bid%	SF%	Champ%
Montana State	11.8	82	100	81	28.5
UC Davis	9.1	9	95	18	1.7
Montana	8.6	4	79	8	0.3
Idaho	7.8	4	74	9	0.7
Northern Arizona	6.5	1	28	1	0.1
Eastern Washington	6.1	<1	16	<1	0.0
Portland State	4.9	<1	3	<1	0.0
Sacramento State	5.2	<1	2	<1	0.0
Weber State	4.4	<1	<1	0	0.0
Idaho State	4.0	0	<1	0	0.0
Cal Poly	3.3	0	<1	0	0.0
Northern Colorado	1.6	0	0	0	0.0

Southland

10

Team	W	Conf%	Bid%	SF%	Champ%
Incarnate Word	8.7	51	87	9	0.3
Stephen F. Austin	9.0	32	85	6	0.2
SE Louisiana	7.6	7	35	<1	0.0
McNeese	7.0	6	22	<1	0.0
Lamar	6.3	2	10	<1	0.0
Nicholls	5.5	1	2	<1	0.0
Houston Christian	5.5	<1	1	0	0.0
East Texas A&M	4.0	<1	<1	0	0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley	2.7	0	0	0	0.0
Northwestern State	1.2	0	0	0	0.0

Big South-OVC

9

Team	W	Conf%	Bid%	SF%	Champ%
UT Martin	7.4	47	61	4	0.3
Tennessee Tech	7.9	21	56	2	0.1
Southeast Missouri State	6.8	16	32	1	0.0
Tennessee State	7.2	10	29	<1	0.0
Lindenwood	5.1	2	3	<1	0.0
Gardner-Webb	4.9	2	3	0	0.0
Western Illinois	4.4	<1	<1	0	0.0
Eastern Illinois	3.9	<1	<1	0	0.0
Charleston Southern	2.9	<1	<1	0	0.0

Southern

9

Team	W	Conf%	Bid%	SF%	Champ%
Mercer	8.1	42	71	4	0.3
Chattanooga	7.4	22	49	1	0.1
East Tennessee State	7.5	16	45	1	0.0
Western Carolina	7.4	15	42	<1	0.0
Samford	5.6	3	5	0	0.0
The Citadel	4.6	<1	<1	0	0.0
Wofford	4.7	<1	<1	0	0.0
Furman	3.7	<1	<1	0	0.0
VMI	2.3	0	0	0	0.0

UAC

9

Team	W	Conf%	Bid%	SF%	Champ%
Tarleton State	9.1	37	85	6	0.2
Abilene Christian	8.0	32	67	4	0.1
Southern Utah	7.1	14	38	1	0.1
Central Arkansas	6.6	9	22	<1	0.0
Eastern Kentucky	5.8	5	8	<1	0.0
North Alabama	4.9	2	2	0	0.0
Austin Peay	4.9	1	1	0	0.0
West Georgia	3.7	<1	<1	0	0.0
Utah Tech	2.5	0	0	0	0.0

Patriot

8

Team	W	Conf%	Bid%	SF%	Champ%
Richmond	8.6	46	79	3	0.1
Lehigh	8.8	35	71	2	0.1
Holy Cross	6.7	14	24	<1	0.0
Bucknell	6.1	3	5	<1	0.0
Lafayette	5.5	2	3	0	0.0
Fordham	3.5	<1	<1	0	0.0
Colgate	3.2	<1	<1	0	0.0
Georgetown	3.6	<1	<1	0	0.0

CAA

14

Team	W	Conf%	Bid%	SF%	Champ%
Villanova	8.3	18	66	3	0.0
Monmouth	8.0	21	59	1	0.0
Rhode Island	8.1	14	54	2	0.0
Towson	7.7	18	49	1	0.1
Stony Brook	7.1	9	29	<1	0.1
New Hampshire	6.3	7	14	<1	0.0
William & Mary	6.5	4	13	<1	0.0
Elon	6.2	4	10	<1	0.0
Hampton	6.4	2	9	<1	0.0
Maine	5.8	2	5	<1	0.0
UAlbany	5.2	<1	<1	0	0.0
Campbell	4.1	<1	<1	0	0.0
Bryant	3.1	0	0	0	0.0
North Carolina A&T	1.8	0	0	0	0.0

NEC

9

Team	W	Conf%	Bid%	SF%	Champ%
Duquesne	7.6	55	58	<1	0.0
Central Connecticut	7.5	15	29	<1	0.0
Robert Morris	7.0	12	19	0	0.0
Long Island University	6.2	14	15	0	0.0
Wagner	5.3	1	1	0	0.0
Mercyhurst	3.7	1	1	0	0.0
St. Francis (PA)	4.5	1	1	0	0.0
New Haven	3.0	0	0	0	0.0
Stonehill	1.8	0	0	0	0.0

Pioneer

11

Team	W	Conf%	Bid%	SF%	Champ%
San Diego	7.5	40	42	<1	0.0
Butler	7.4	18	20	<1	0.0
Drake	6.7	19	19	0	0.0
Presbyterian	7.1	11	12	0	0.0
St. Thomas (MN)	5.8	5	5	0	0.0
Morehead State	6.2	4	4	0	0.0
Davidson	5.4	2	2	0	0.0
Dayton	5.0	1	1	0	0.0
Valparaiso	3.5	<1	<1	0	0.0
Stetson	3.0	<1	<1	0	0.0
Marist	2.3	0	0	0	0.0