CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 1 · FBS · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

All Big Ten SEC Big 12 ACC FBS Independents Pac-12 American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA

Season2026 2025 2024

Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price

North Texas @ Indiana22.4 pt gap

Model vs mktIndiana -18.1 · mkt Indiana -40.5

LeanNorth Texas +40.5

Best priceNorth Texas +40.5 -110best of 7

WinIndiana 90%

Toledo @ Michigan State16.6 pt gap

Model vs mktToledo -6.1 · mkt Toledo +10.5

LeanToledo +10.5

Best priceToledo +11.5 -115best of 7

WinToledo 67%

Oklahoma State @ Tulsa13.9 pt gap

Model vs mktTulsa -1.9 · mkt Tulsa +12.0

LeanTulsa +12.0

Best priceTulsa +13.5 -115best of 7

WinTulsa 55%

Ohio @ Nebraska13.1 pt gap

Model vs mktNebraska -10.4 · mkt Nebraska -23.5

LeanOhio +23.5

Best priceOhio +23.5 -112best of 8

WinNebraska 77%

Jacksonville State @ North Dakota State11.3 pt gap

Model vs mktNorth Dakota State -20.6 · mkt North Dakota State -9.3

LeanNorth Dakota State -9.3

Best priceNorth Dakota State -7.5 -110best of 7

WinNorth Dakota State 93%

East Carolina @ Alabama10.9 pt gap

Model vs mktAlabama -15.1 · mkt Alabama -26.0

LeanEast Carolina +26.0

Best priceEast Carolina +26.5 -108best of 8

WinAlabama 86%

Liberty @ James Madison10.8 pt gap

Model vs mktJames Madison -16.8 · mkt James Madison -6.0

LeanJames Madison -6.0

Best priceJames Madison -6 -110best of 7

WinJames Madison 88%

Florida International @ South Florida10.4 pt gap

Model vs mktSouth Florida -22.9 · mkt South Florida -12.5

LeanSouth Florida -12.5

Best priceSouth Florida -11.5 -110best of 7

WinSouth Florida 95%

Full Slate — FBS · Week 1 · 51 games

North Texas @ IndianaIndiana 90%

Model

Indiana -18.1 · mkt Indiana -40.5

proj North Texas 18.6 · Indiana 36.7

leans North Texas +40.5

◆ Mid 1

Indiana -39.5 -105FanDuel

North Texas +40.5 -110DraftKings

Toledo @ Michigan StateToledo 67%

Model

Toledo -6.1 · mkt Toledo +10.5

proj Toledo 33.8 · Michigan State 27.7

leans Toledo +10.5

◆ Mid 1

Michigan State -10.5 -110DraftKings

Toledo +11.5 -115FanDuel

Oklahoma State @ TulsaTulsa 55%

Model

Tulsa -1.9 · mkt Tulsa +12.0

proj Oklahoma State 26.8 · Tulsa 28.7

leans Tulsa +12.0

◆ Mid 1

Tulsa +13.5 -115FanDuel

Oklahoma State -12.5 -112DraftKings

Ohio @ NebraskaNebraska 77%

Model

Nebraska -10.4 · mkt Nebraska -23.5

proj Ohio 21.4 · Nebraska 31.8

leans Ohio +23.5

◆ Mid 0

Nebraska -23.5 -108DraftKings

Ohio +23.5 -112DraftKings

Jacksonville State @ North Dakota StateNorth Dakota State 93%

Model

North Dakota State -20.6 · mkt North Dakota State -9.3

proj Jacksonville State 18.0 · North Dakota State 38.6

leans North Dakota State -9.3

◆ Mid 1

North Dakota State -7.5 -110FanDuel

Jacksonville State +8.5 -108DraftKings

East Carolina @ AlabamaAlabama 86%

Model

Alabama -15.1 · mkt Alabama -26.0

proj East Carolina 18.6 · Alabama 33.7

leans East Carolina +26.0

◆ Mid 1

Alabama -25.5 -115FanDuel

East Carolina +26.5 -108DraftKings

Liberty @ James MadisonJames Madison 88%

Model

James Madison -16.8 · mkt James Madison -6.0

proj Liberty 20.2 · James Madison 37.0

leans James Madison -6.0

◆ Mid 0.5

James Madison -6 -110DraftKings

Liberty +6.5 -108FanDuel

Florida International @ South FloridaSouth Florida 95%

Model

South Florida -22.9 · mkt South Florida -12.5

proj Florida International 15.7 · South Florida 38.6

leans South Florida -12.5

◆ Mid 1

South Florida -11.5 -110FanDuel

Florida International +12.5 -108DraftKings

Northern Illinois @ IowaIowa 100%

Model

Iowa -39.3 · mkt Iowa -30.0

proj Northern Illinois 7.7 · Iowa 47.0

leans Iowa -30.0

◆ Mid 0

Iowa -30.5 -105DraftKings

Northern Illinois +30.5 -115DraftKings

North Carolina @ TCUTCU 84%

Model

TCU -14.3 · mkt TCU -6.5

proj North Carolina 21.5 · TCU 35.8

leans TCU -6.5

◆ Mid 0.5

TCU -6.5 -110DraftKings

North Carolina +7 -115BetRivers

Marshall @ Penn StatePenn State 99%

Model

Penn State -31.2 · mkt Penn State -23.5

proj Marshall 10.9 · Penn State 42.0

leans Penn State -23.5

◆ Mid 1

Penn State -22.5 -106LowVig

Marshall +23.5 -112DraftKings

Washington State @ WashingtonWashington 83%

Model

Washington -13.8 · mkt Washington -21.5

proj Washington State 19.2 · Washington 32.9

leans Washington State +21.5

◆ Mid 0

Washington -21.5 -108DraftKings

Washington State +21.5 -112DraftKings

Clemson @ LSULSU 59%

Model

LSU -3.3 · mkt LSU -11.0

proj Clemson 25.2 · LSU 28.5

leans Clemson +11.0

◆ Mid 1

LSU -11 -111LowVig

Clemson +12 -109BetRivers

Colorado @ Georgia TechGeorgia Tech 85%

Model

Georgia Tech -14.6 · mkt Georgia Tech -7.3

proj Colorado 15.9 · Georgia Tech 30.5

leans Georgia Tech -7.3

◆ Mid 0.5

Georgia Tech -7 -106LowVig

Colorado +7.5 -112DraftKings

Louisville @ Ole MissOle Miss 84%

Model

Ole Miss -13.8 · mkt Ole Miss -6.5

proj Louisville 18.1 · Ole Miss 31.9

leans Ole Miss -6.5

◆ Mid 2

Ole Miss -4.5 -110BetOnline

Louisville +6.5 -108DraftKings

Akron @ Wake ForestWake Forest 87%

Model

Wake Forest -15.7 · mkt Wake Forest -22.5

proj Akron 18.6 · Wake Forest 34.3

leans Akron +22.5

◆ Mid 0

Wake Forest -22.5 -108DraftKings

Akron +22.5 -112DraftKings

Texas State @ TexasTexas 95%

Model

Texas -23.8 · mkt Texas -30.5

proj Texas State 16.0 · Texas 39.9

leans Texas State +30.5

◆ Mid 1

Texas -30.5 -110DraftKings

Texas State +31.5 -115FanDuel

Baylor @ AuburnAuburn 83%

Model

Auburn -13.4 · mkt Auburn -6.8

proj Baylor 20.1 · Auburn 33.5

leans Auburn -6.8

◆ Mid 1

Auburn -7 -105DraftKings

Baylor +8 -113BetRivers

Coastal Carolina @ West VirginiaWest Virginia 79%

Model

West Virginia -11.3 · mkt West Virginia -17.5

proj Coastal Carolina 20.4 · West Virginia 31.7

leans Coastal Carolina +17.5

◆ Mid 1

West Virginia -17.5 -112DraftKings

Coastal Carolina +18.5 -115FanDuel

Missouri State @ Texas A&MTexas A&M 100%

Model

Texas A&M -44.2 · mkt Texas A&M -38.5

proj Missouri State 4.8 · Texas A&M 49.0

leans Texas A&M -38.5

◆ Mid 1

Texas A&M -38.5 -110DraftKings

Missouri State +39.5 -110FanDuel

SMU @ Florida StateFlorida State 59%

Model

Florida State -3.2 · mkt Florida State +2.5

proj SMU 26.4 · Florida State 29.6

leans Florida State +2.5

◆ Mid 0.5

Florida State +3 -111LowVig

SMU -2.5 -115DraftKings

Hawai'i @ StanfordHawai'i 57%

Model

Hawai'i -2.4 · mkt Hawai'i +3.3

proj Hawai'i 28.2 · Stanford 25.8

leans Hawai'i +3.3

◆ Mid 0

Stanford -3.5 -108DraftKings

Hawai'i +3.5 -112DraftKings

Massachusetts @ RutgersRutgers 99%

Model

Rutgers -35.6 · mkt Rutgers -30.5

proj Massachusetts 9.9 · Rutgers 45.6

leans Rutgers -30.5

◆ Mid 0

Rutgers -30.5 -110DraftKings

Massachusetts +30.5 -110DraftKings

Tulane @ DukeDuke 62%

Model

Duke -4.2 · mkt Duke -9.0

proj Tulane 25.0 · Duke 29.2

leans Tulane +9.0

◆ Mid 1

Duke -9.5 -105DraftKings

Tulane +10.5 -105FanDuel

Ball State @ Ohio StateOhio State 100%

Model

Ohio State -45.3 · mkt Ohio State -50.0

proj Ball State 9.5 · Ohio State 54.7

leans Ball State +50.0

◆ Mid 1

Ohio State -49.5 -106LowVig

Ball State +50.5 -112DraftKings

Oregon State @ HoustonHouston 84%

Model

Houston -14.2 · mkt Houston -18.5

proj Oregon State 19.7 · Houston 33.8

leans Oregon State +18.5

◆ Mid 0

Houston -18.5 -110DraftKings

Oregon State +18.5 -110DraftKings

Sacramento State @ Eastern MichiganEastern Michigan 81%

Model

Eastern Michigan -12.3 · mkt Eastern Michigan -8.0

proj Sacramento State 21.9 · Eastern Michigan 34.3

leans Eastern Michigan -8.0

◆ Mid 1

Eastern Michigan -7.5 -112DraftKings

Sacramento State +8.5 -110BetMGM

Miami (OH) @ PittsburghPittsburgh 80%

Model

Pittsburgh -11.7 · mkt Pittsburgh -16.0

proj Miami (OH) 20.2 · Pittsburgh 31.9

leans Miami (OH) +16.0

◆ Mid 1

Pittsburgh -15.5 -110DraftKings

Miami (OH) +16.5 -106LowVig

UCLA @ CaliforniaCalifornia 66%

Model

California -5.8 · mkt California -1.5

proj UCLA 26.2 · California 32.1

leans California -1.5

◆ Mid 1.5

California 0 -106LowVig

UCLA +1.5 -112DraftKings

Western Kentucky @ NevadaWestern Kentucky 70%

Model

Western Kentucky -7.4 · mkt Western Kentucky -3.5

proj Western Kentucky 31.4 · Nevada 24.0

leans Western Kentucky -3.5

◆ Mid 1

Nevada +3.5 -111LowVig

Western Kentucky -2.5 -122FanDuel

Western Michigan @ MichiganMichigan 95%

Model

Michigan -23.2 · mkt Michigan -26.5

proj Western Michigan 14.4 · Michigan 37.7

leans Western Michigan +26.5

◆ Mid 1

Michigan -25.5 -112FanDuel

Western Michigan +26.5 -108DraftKings

Central Michigan @ New MexicoNew Mexico 75%

Model

New Mexico -9.4 · mkt New Mexico -12.5

proj Central Michigan 23.9 · New Mexico 33.3

leans Central Michigan +12.5

◆ Mid 0

New Mexico -12.5 -108DraftKings

Central Michigan +12.5 -112DraftKings

UAB @ IllinoisIllinois 96%

Model

Illinois -24.5 · mkt Illinois -27.5

proj UAB 14.2 · Illinois 38.6

leans UAB +27.5

◆ Mid 0

Illinois -27.5 -112DraftKings

UAB +27.5 -108DraftKings

NC State @ VirginiaVirginia 69%

Model

Virginia -7.2 · mkt Virginia -4.3

proj NC State 23.0 · Virginia 30.2

leans Virginia -4.3

◆ Mid 1

Virginia -5.5 -108DraftKings

NC State +6.5 -111LowVig

UTEP @ OklahomaOklahoma 100%

Model

Oklahoma -37.7 · mkt Oklahoma -40.5

proj UTEP 8.6 · Oklahoma 46.2

leans UTEP +40.5

◆ Mid 1

Oklahoma -39.5 -115FanDuel

UTEP +40.5 -108DraftKings

New Mexico State @ Florida StateFlorida State 99%

Model

Florida State -32.1 · mkt Florida State -30.0

proj New Mexico State 13.4 · Florida State 45.5

leans Florida State -30.0

◆ Mid 1.5

Florida State -29.5 -110FanDuel

New Mexico State +31 -106LowVig

UNLV @ Hawai'iUNLV 60%

Model

UNLV -3.6 · mkt UNLV -1.5

proj UNLV 30.9 · Hawai'i 27.3

leans UNLV -1.5

◆ Mid 1.5

Hawai'i +2.5 -110FanDuel

UNLV -1 -101LowVig

Florida Atlantic @ FloridaFlorida 98%

Model

Florida -27.9 · mkt Florida -26.0

proj Florida Atlantic 14.6 · Florida 42.4

leans Florida -26.0

◆ Mid 0.5

Florida -26 -106LowVig

Florida Atlantic +26.5 -108DraftKings

Miami @ StanfordMiami 95%

Model

Miami -23.8 · mkt Miami -22.0

proj Miami 41.3 · Stanford 17.5

leans Miami -22.0

◆ Mid 1.5

Stanford +23 -101LowVig

Miami -21.5 -105FanDuel

Kent State @ South CarolinaSouth Carolina 99%

Model

South Carolina -32.9 · mkt South Carolina -34.5

proj Kent State 13.8 · South Carolina 46.7

leans Kent State +34.5

◆ Mid 0

South Carolina -34.5 -110DraftKings

Kent State +34.5 -110DraftKings

Memphis @ UNLVUNLV 55%

Model

UNLV -1.7 · mkt UNLV -3.0

proj Memphis 26.1 · UNLV 27.8

leans Memphis +3.0

◆ Mid 1

UNLV -3.5 -105DraftKings

Memphis +4.5 -105FanDuel

Fresno State @ USCUSC 94%

Model

USC -22.3 · mkt USC -23.5

proj Fresno State 17.4 · USC 39.7

leans Fresno State +23.5

◆ Mid 1

USC -22.5 -106LowVig

Fresno State +23.5 -110DraftKings

Boise State @ OregonOregon 96%

Model

Oregon -25.6 · mkt Oregon -24.5

proj Boise State 12.9 · Oregon 38.5

leans Oregon -24.5

◆ Mid 0.5

Oregon -24.5 -115DraftKings

Boise State +25 -110BetRivers

Arkansas State @ MemphisMemphis 75%

Model

Memphis -9.6 · mkt Memphis -10.5

proj Arkansas State 19.4 · Memphis 29.1

leans Arkansas State +10.5

◆ Mid 0

Memphis -10.5 -110DraftKings

Arkansas State +10.5 -110DraftKings

San José State @ Eastern MichiganEastern Michigan 58%

Model

Eastern Michigan -3.0 · mkt Eastern Michigan -3.8

proj San José State 25.7 · Eastern Michigan 28.7

leans San José State +3.8

◆ Mid 1

Eastern Michigan -3.5 -106FanDuel

San José State +4.5 -106LowVig

Boston College @ CincinnatiCincinnati 74%

Model

Cincinnati -9.0 · mkt Cincinnati -8.5

proj Boston College 20.8 · Cincinnati 29.7

leans Cincinnati -8.5

◆ Mid 0

Cincinnati -7.5 -110DraftKings

Boston College +7.5 -110DraftKings

Wyoming @ Colorado StateColorado State 60%

Model

Colorado State -3.6 · mkt Colorado State -4.0

proj Wyoming 25.7 · Colorado State 29.3

leans Wyoming +4.0

◆ Mid 0.5

Colorado State -3.5 -115FanDuel

Wyoming +4 -115DraftKings

Notre Dame @ WisconsinNotre Dame 93%

Model

Notre Dame -20.9 · mkt Notre Dame -20.5

proj Notre Dame 34.2 · Wisconsin 13.3

leans Notre Dame -20.5

Total

proj 47.5 · mkt 47.5

UL Monroe @ Mississippi StateMississippi State 98%

Model

Mississippi State -28.8 · mkt Mississippi State -28.5

proj UL Monroe 12.6 · Mississippi State 41.4

leans Mississippi State -28.5

◆ Mid 0

Mississippi State -28.5 -108DraftKings

UL Monroe +28.5 -112DraftKings

San José State @ USCUSC 99%

Model

USC -35.6 · mkt USC -35.5

proj San José State 8.8 · USC 44.4

leans USC -35.5

◆ Mid 0

USC -35.5 -112DraftKings

San José State +35.5 -108DraftKings

Sam Houston @ TroyTroy 88%

Model

Troy -16.9 · mkt Troy -17.0

proj Sam Houston 19.5 · Troy 36.4

leans Sam Houston +17.0

◆ Mid 0.5

Troy -17.5 -105DraftKings

Sam Houston +18 -106LowVig

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.