MIA at NE

ST Model NE -4.1
Trends · player props · 2026 week 18
How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds of them, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself. There is deliberately no single verdict here.
MIA — the basics
419 graded games since 1999
on the road106-10450%-0.30/210n=210
vs NE26-2551%-0.20/51n=51
in a division game78-7950%-0.70/157n=157
in the Sunday early window134-13749%-0.20/271n=271
in January9-1341%-5.90/22n=22
outdoors188-19150%-0.30/379n=379
on turf61-5453%-0.60/115n=115
at this venue10-1442%-2.70/24n=24
in the last 5 seasons44-4251%-0.80/86n=86
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line · x/n = games under the current head coach
MIA — form & streaks
Last 16 games: -0.0 pts vs their number per gamen=16
All 419 graded games: -0.2 pts vs their number per gamen=419
MIA — combinations
82 lean MIA · 91 lean against
Read this first. 192 combinations shown. The best one here is 83%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 80% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
CombinationRec%PtsNowSample
vs NE + in the last 5 seasons8-280%from 51%+3.50/10n=10
at this venue + in the last 5 seasons4-180%from 42%-0.10/5n=5
in a division game + in the last 5 seasons20-1067%from 50%+0.90/30n=30
on turf + in the last 5 seasons16-1062%from 53%-0.40/26n=26
in a division game + in January8-657%from 50%-2.00/14n=14
+ outdoors8-657%from 57%-2.00/14n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons4-357%from 57%-0.10/7n=7
+ on turf2-433%from 57%-12.20/6n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons4-357%from 57%-0.10/7n=7
+ on turf2-433%from 57%-12.20/6n=6
vs NE + in January4-357%from 51%-1.90/7n=7
+ outdoors4-357%from 57%-1.90/7n=7
on the road + on turf61-5453%from 50%-0.60/115n=115
+ in the last 5 seasons16-1062%from 53%-0.40/26n=26
+ at this venue8-947%from 53%-4.20/17n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons4-180%from 47%-0.10/5n=5
outdoors + on turf44-3953%from 50%-1.40/83n=83
+ in the last 5 seasons11-665%from 53%-1.80/17n=17
+ at this venue8-947%from 53%-4.20/17n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons4-180%from 47%-0.10/5n=5
in the Sunday early window + in the last 5 seasons29-2653%from 49%+0.10/55n=55
in a division game + on turf35-3252%from 50%-1.70/67n=67
+ in the last 5 seasons11-473%from 52%-0.30/15n=15
+ at this venue8-947%from 52%-4.20/17n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons4-180%from 47%-0.10/5n=5
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it · “Now” = games played by this team as it exists today
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice, picks for profit, or any guarantee of outcome. A trend is a description of the past, not a prediction. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.