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Betting Edge

The PFT Model’s read on every game — paired with the best price across sportsbooks to act on it
Season202620252024202320222021
How to use this: The PFT Model's lean on every game is analysis, not a lock — historically ~50% against the closing spread, so the edge that compounds is price: each game lists the best number on both sides and the book offering it — take it. Mid is the gap between those two numbers; the wider it is, the bigger the middle — the range of final scores where both sides win.
PFT Model vs Market
Top Edges · Week 1 — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
ARI @ LAC4.7 pt gap
PFT vs mktPFT LAC -5.8 · mkt LAC -10.5
LeanARI +10.5
Best priceARI +11.5 -110best of 9
WinLAC 67% · mkt 78%
DEN @ KC4.7 pt gap
PFT vs mktPFT DEN -2.2 · mkt DEN +2.5
LeanDEN +2.5
Best priceDEN +3 -115best of 9
WinDEN 56% · mkt 43%
DAL @ NYG4.4 pt gap
PFT vs mktPFT NYG -1.9 · mkt NYG +2.5
LeanNYG +2.5
Best priceNYG +3 -110best of 9
WinNYG 56% · mkt 43%
SF @ LAR2.6 pt gap
PFT vs mktPFT LAR -6.1 · mkt LAR -3.5
LeanLAR -3.5
Best priceLAR -3 -120best of 9
WinLAR 67% · mkt 60%
GB @ MIN2.3 pt gap
PFT vs mktPFT MIN -1.3 · mkt MIN +1.0
LeanMIN +1.0
Best priceMIN +1.5 -118best of 9
WinMIN 54% · mkt 47%
WAS @ PHI2.2 pt gap
PFT vs mktPFT PHI -6.7 · mkt PHI -4.5
LeanPHI -4.5
Best pricePHI -4 -110best of 8
WinPHI 69% · mkt 63%
MIA @ LV2.1 pt gap
PFT vs mktPFT LV -0.9 · mkt LV -3.0
LeanMIA +3.0
Best priceMIA +3.5 -102best of 9
WinLV 53% · mkt 59%
BUF @ HOU1.8 pt gap
PFT vs mktPFT HOU -0.8 · mkt HOU +1.0
LeanHOU +1.0
Best priceHOU +1.5 -120best of 9
WinHOU 52% · mkt 47%
Full Slate — every game, model read + best price
ARI @ LACLAC 67% · mkt 78%
PFT Model
PFT LAC -5.8 · mkt LAC -10.5
proj ARI 21 · LAC 27
leans ARI +10.5
◆ Mid 1.5
LAC -10 -110BetRivers
ARI +11.5 -110DraftKings
DEN @ KCDEN 56% · mkt 43%
PFT Model
PFT DEN -2.2 · mkt DEN +2.5
proj DEN 23 · KC 21
leans DEN +2.5
◆ Mid 0.5
KC -2.5 -120DraftKings
DEN +3 -115BetMGM
DAL @ NYGNYG 56% · mkt 43%
PFT Model
PFT NYG -1.9 · mkt NYG +2.5
proj DAL 27 · NYG 29
leans NYG +2.5
◆ Mid 1.5
NYG +3 -110BetUS
DAL -1.5 -115DraftKings
SF @ LARLAR 67% · mkt 60%
PFT Model
PFT LAR -6.1 · mkt LAR -3.5
proj SF 23 · LAR 29
leans LAR -3.5
◆ Mid 0.5
LAR -3 -120DraftKings
SF +3.5 -110FanDuel
GB @ MINMIN 54% · mkt 47%
PFT Model
PFT MIN -1.3 · mkt MIN +1.0
proj GB 22 · MIN 23
leans MIN +1.0
◆ Mid 2.5
MIN +1.5 -118DraftKings
GB +1 -110BetUS
WAS @ PHIPHI 69% · mkt 63%
PFT Model
PFT PHI -6.7 · mkt PHI -4.5
proj WAS 20 · PHI 27
leans PHI -4.5
◆ Mid 1.5
PHI -4 -110LowVig
WAS +5.5 -110DraftKings
MIA @ LVLV 53% · mkt 59%
PFT Model
PFT LV -0.9 · mkt LV -3.0
proj MIA 22 · LV 22
leans MIA +3.0
◆ Mid 0.5
LV -3 -120DraftKings
MIA +3.5 -102FanDuel
BUF @ HOUHOU 52% · mkt 47%
PFT Model
PFT HOU -0.8 · mkt HOU +1.0
proj BUF 22 · HOU 23
leans HOU +1.0
◆ Mid 0.5
HOU +1.5 -120DraftKings
BUF -1 -113BetRivers
CLE @ JAXJAX 75% · mkt 71%
PFT Model
PFT JAX -9.3 · mkt JAX -7.5
proj CLE 12 · JAX 22
leans JAX -7.5
◆ Mid 0
JAX -7.5 -110DraftKings
CLE +7.5 -110DraftKings
BAL @ INDBAL 55% · mkt 60%
PFT Model
PFT BAL -1.8 · mkt BAL -3.5
proj BAL 24 · IND 23
leans IND +3.5
◆ Mid 0
IND +3.5 -110DraftKings
BAL -3.5 -110DraftKings
CHI @ CARCHI 62% · mkt 57%
PFT Model
PFT CHI -4.0 · mkt CHI -2.5
proj CHI 25 · CAR 21
leans CHI -2.5
◆ Mid 0.5
CAR +2.5 -110DraftKings
CHI -2 -120BetUS
NO @ DETDET 74% · mkt 70%
PFT Model
PFT DET -8.5 · mkt DET -7.0
proj NO 19 · DET 28
leans DET -7.0
◆ Mid 0.5
DET -7 -110DraftKings
NO +7.5 -117BetRivers
NYJ @ TENTEN 61% · mkt 57%
PFT Model
PFT TEN -3.9 · mkt TEN -2.5
proj NYJ 20 · TEN 24
leans TEN -2.5
◆ Mid 0.5
TEN -2.5 -110FanDuel
NYJ +3 -105DraftKings
ATL @ PITPIT 55% · mkt 59%
PFT Model
PFT PIT -1.7 · mkt PIT -3.0
proj ATL 20 · PIT 21
leans ATL +3.0
◆ Mid 0.5
PIT -2.5 -120FanDuel
ATL +3 +100DraftKings
NE @ SEASEA 63% · mkt 60%
PFT Model
PFT SEA -4.6 · mkt SEA -3.5
proj NE 17 · SEA 22
leans SEA -3.5
◆ Mid 1
SEA -3.5 -110DraftKings
NE +4.5 -115FanDuel
TB @ CINCIN 59% · mkt 60%
PFT Model
PFT CIN -3.0 · mkt CIN -3.5
proj TB 28 · CIN 31
leans TB +3.5
◆ Mid 0.5
CIN -3.5 -110DraftKings
TB +4 -110MyBookie
Informational only. Model projections and posted prices are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice, picks for profit, or any guarantee of outcome. Lines move; confirm at the book before betting. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.