SF at KC—

ST Model KC -0.4

Trends · player props · 2026 week 16

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds of them, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself. There is deliberately no single verdict here.

SF — the basics

434 graded games since 1999

on the road	108-109	50%	-0.6	83/217	n=217
vs KC	2-8	20%	-9.2	5/10	n=10
off a bye	20-32	38%	-1.6	23/52	n=52
in the Sunday late window	106-110	49%	-0.2	78/216	n=216
in December	53-58	48%	+0.1	40/111	n=111
outdoors	174-181	49%	-0.1	130/355	n=355
on grass	158-166	49%	+0.2	123/324	n=324
under this head coach	83-79	51%	+0.8	162/162	n=162
in the last 5 seasons	51-45	53%	+0.6	96/96	n=96

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line · x/n = games under the current head coach

SF — form & streaks

Last 16 games: +1.0 pts vs their number per game	n=16
All 434 graded games: -0.0 pts vs their number per game	n=434

SF — combinations

72 lean SF · 62 lean against

Read this first. 156 combinations shown. The best one here is 78%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 80% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Now	Sample
in December + in the last 5 seasons	13-8	62%from 48%	+2.1	21/21	n=21
in December + under this head coach	23-17	57%from 48%	+1.1	40/40	n=40
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-8	62%from 57%	+2.1	21/21	n=21
on the road + under this head coach	46-37	55%from 50%	+1.6	83/83	n=83
+ in the last 5 seasons	27-23	54%from 55%	+0.5	50/50	n=50
on the road + in the Sunday late window	36-29	55%from 50%	+0.3	33/65	n=65
+ on grass	24-16	60%from 55%	+2.4	20/40	n=40
+ under this head coach	11-9	55%from 60%	+2.5	20/20	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-7	42%from 60%	-2.2	12/12	n=12
+ outdoors	22-18	55%from 55%	+0.7	20/40	n=40
+ on grass	18-9	67%from 55%	+4.8	14/27	n=27
+ under this head coach	12-8	60%from 55%	+2.0	20/20	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-5	55%from 55%	-2.1	11/11	n=11
+ under this head coach	18-15	55%from 55%	+1.6	33/33	n=33
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-10	50%from 55%	-0.6	20/20	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-10	50%from 55%	-0.6	20/20	n=20
+ in December	9-10	47%from 55%	-0.8	8/19	n=19
+ on grass	8-5	62%from 47%	+4.0	5/13	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 47%	0.0	5/5	n=5
+ outdoors	8-8	50%from 47%	-0.1	8/16	n=16
+ under this head coach	4-4	50%from 47%	-1.0	8/8	n=8
outdoors + in the last 5 seasons	43-35	55%from 49%	+0.6	78/78	n=78
on the road + in the last 5 seasons	27-23	54%from 50%	+0.5	50/50	n=50
under this head coach + in the last 5 seasons	51-45	53%from 51%	+0.6	96/96	n=96
outdoors + under this head coach	69-61	53%from 49%	+1.1	130/130	n=130
+ in the last 5 seasons	43-35	55%from 53%	+0.6	78/78	n=78

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it · “Now” = games played by this team as it exists today

KC — the basics

441 graded games since 1999

at home	109-116	48%	+1.2	122/225	n=225
vs SF	8-2	80%	+9.2	6/10	n=10
in the Sunday late window	60-53	53%	+1.7	65/113	n=113
in December	56-54	51%	+1.1	55/110	n=110
outdoors	202-193	51%	+1.0	203/395	n=395
on grass	181-168	52%	+1.5	173/349	n=349
at this venue	105-116	48%	+1.0	118/221	n=221
under this head coach	122-112	52%	+1.8	234/234	n=234
in the last 5 seasons	44-52	46%	-0.3	96/96	n=96

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line · x/n = games under the current head coach

KC — form & streaks

Last 16 games: -0.5 pts vs their number per game	n=16
All 441 graded games: +0.9 pts vs their number per game	n=441

KC — combinations

74 lean KC · 83 lean against

Read this first. 170 combinations shown. The best one here is 100%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 80% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 2.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Now	Sample
at home + vs SF	5-0	100%from 48%	+15.3	3/5	n=5
+ on grass	5-0	100%from 100%	+15.3	3/5	n=5
vs SF + under this head coach	5-1	83%from 80%	+8.4	6/6	n=6
vs SF + outdoors	7-2	78%from 80%	+9.7	5/9	n=9
+ under this head coach	4-1	80%from 78%	+9.2	5/5	n=5
+ on grass	6-2	75%from 78%	+8.4	4/8	n=8
vs SF + on grass	7-2	78%from 80%	+7.9	5/9	n=9
+ under this head coach	4-1	80%from 78%	+6.1	5/5	n=5
vs SF + in the Sunday late window	3-2	60%from 80%	+3.0	3/5	n=5
+ outdoors	3-2	60%from 60%	+3.0	3/5	n=5
in the Sunday late window + in December	15-12	56%from 53%	+0.3	16/27	n=27
+ at this venue	5-2	71%from 56%	+7.1	6/7	n=7
+ under this head coach	4-2	67%from 71%	+7.7	6/6	n=6
+ under this head coach	10-6	63%from 56%	+5.3	16/16	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 63%	+0.6	5/5	n=5
+ outdoors	14-11	56%from 56%	+0.6	14/25	n=25
+ at this venue	5-2	71%from 56%	+7.1	6/7	n=7
+ under this head coach	9-5	64%from 56%	+6.4	14/14	n=14
+ on grass	12-10	55%from 56%	-0.0	12/22	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 56%	+0.6	5/5	n=5
+ on grass	12-11	52%from 56%	-0.3	13/23	n=23
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 52%	+5.1	5/6	n=6
+ under this head coach	8-5	62%from 52%	+5.3	13/13	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 56%	+0.6	5/5	n=5
in December + under this head coach	30-25	55%from 51%	+2.3	55/55	n=55
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-10	50%from 55%	-0.3	20/20	n=20

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it · “Now” = games played by this team as it exists today

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice, picks for profit, or any guarantee of outcome. A trend is a description of the past, not a prediction. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.