How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds of them, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself. There is deliberately no single verdict here.
NE — the basics
455 graded games since 1999
| on the road | 127-93 | 58% | +3.3 | 9/220 | n=220 |
| vs NYJ | 31-21 | 60% | +3.2 | 2/52 | n=52 |
| in a division game | 91-67 | 58% | +2.9 | 6/158 | n=158 |
| in the Sunday early window | 125-91 | 58% | +3.0 | 12/216 | n=216 |
| in December | 61-47 | 56% | +3.0 | 4/108 | n=108 |
| outdoors | 232-176 | 57% | +2.8 | 20/408 | n=408 |
| on turf | 154-110 | 58% | +3.9 | 15/264 | n=264 |
| at this venue | 8-10 | 44% | +1.5 | 1/18 | n=18 |
| under this head coach | 14-7 | 67% | +5.3 | 21/21 | n=21 |
| in the last 5 seasons | 43-44 | 49% | +1.3 | 21/87 | n=87 |
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line · x/n = games under the current head coach
NE — form & streaks
| Last 16 games: +5.3 pts vs their number per game | n=16 |
| All 455 graded games: +2.8 pts vs their number per game | n=455 |
| NE has failed to cover 2 straight | n=2 |
NE — combinations
190 lean NE · 11 lean against
Read this first. 242 combinations shown. The best one here is 100%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 86% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 1.
| Combination | Rec | % | Pts | Now | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| in a division game + under this head coach | 5-1 | 83%from 58% | +8.4 | 6/6 | n=6 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 5-1 | 83%from 83% | +8.4 | 6/6 | n=6 |
| vs NYJ + in the last 5 seasons | 8-2 | 80%from 60% | +5.5 | 2/10 | n=10 |
| on the road + under this head coach | 7-2 | 78%from 58% | +7.2 | 9/9 | n=9 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 7-2 | 78%from 78% | +7.2 | 9/9 | n=9 |
| vs NYJ + in December | 10-4 | 71%from 60% | +6.5 | 1/14 | n=14 |
| + on turf | 8-3 | 73%from 71% | +8.9 | 1/11 | n=11 |
| + outdoors | 10-4 | 71%from 71% | +6.5 | 1/14 | n=14 |
| + on turf | 8-3 | 73%from 71% | +8.9 | 1/11 | n=11 |
| under this head coach + in the last 5 seasons | 14-7 | 67%from 67% | +5.3 | 21/21 | n=21 |
| on turf + under this head coach | 10-5 | 67%from 58% | +6.0 | 15/15 | n=15 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 10-5 | 67%from 67% | +6.0 | 15/15 | n=15 |
| at this venue + in the last 5 seasons | 4-2 | 67%from 44% | +2.6 | 1/6 | n=6 |
| on the road + vs NYJ | 17-9 | 65%from 58% | +5.0 | 1/26 | n=26 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-1 | 80%from 65% | +4.6 | 1/5 | n=5 |
| + in December | 5-2 | 71%from 65% | +4.3 | 1/7 | n=7 |
| + outdoors | 5-2 | 71%from 71% | +4.3 | 1/7 | n=7 |
| + on turf | 4-2 | 67%from 71% | +4.3 | 1/6 | n=6 |
| + in a division game | 17-9 | 65%from 65% | +5.0 | 1/26 | n=26 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-1 | 80%from 65% | +4.6 | 1/5 | n=5 |
| + in December | 5-2 | 71%from 65% | +4.3 | 1/7 | n=7 |
| + outdoors | 17-9 | 65%from 65% | +5.0 | 1/26 | n=26 |
| + in the Sunday early window | 8-5 | 62%from 65% | +4.8 | 1/13 | n=13 |
| + on turf | 14-9 | 61%from 65% | +3.6 | 1/23 | n=23 |
| + at this venue | 8-8 | 50%from 65% | +2.5 | 1/16 | n=16 |
| + outdoors | 17-9 | 65%from 65% | +5.0 | 1/26 | n=26 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-1 | 80%from 65% | +4.6 | 1/5 | n=5 |
| + on turf | 14-9 | 61%from 65% | +3.6 | 1/23 | n=23 |
| + at this venue | 8-8 | 50%from 65% | +2.5 | 1/16 | n=16 |
| + in the Sunday early window | 8-5 | 62%from 65% | +4.8 | 1/13 | n=13 |
| + outdoors | 8-5 | 62%from 62% | +4.8 | 1/13 | n=13 |
| + at this venue | 5-4 | 56%from 62% | +1.4 | 1/9 | n=9 |
| + on turf | 6-5 | 55%from 62% | +1.8 | 1/11 | n=11 |
| + on turf | 14-9 | 61%from 65% | +3.6 | 1/23 | n=23 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-1 | 80%from 61% | +4.6 | 1/5 | n=5 |
| + at this venue | 8-8 | 50%from 61% | +2.5 | 1/16 | n=16 |
| + at this venue | 8-8 | 50%from 65% | +2.5 | 1/16 | n=16 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-1 | 80%from 50% | +4.6 | 1/5 | n=5 |
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it · “Now” = games played by this team as it exists today
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice, picks for profit, or any guarantee of outcome. A trend is a description of the past, not a prediction. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.