BUF at DEN—

ST Model BUF -1.3

Since first recorded BUF -1.5o/u 46.5unchanged · 6d ago · 3 books

Trends · player props · 2026 week 16

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds of them, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself. There is deliberately no single verdict here.

BUF — the basics

423 graded games since 1999

on the road	108-101	52%	+0.1	77/209	n=209
vs DEN	9-3	75%	+8.5	6/12	n=12
on Friday/Saturday	7-8	47%	+6.4	9/15	n=15
in December	57-55	51%	+0.6	38/112	n=112
outdoors	196-182	52%	+0.6	138/378	n=378
on grass	62-60	51%	-0.9	41/122	n=122
at this venue	4-1	80%	+8.0	2/5	n=5
under this head coach	85-73	54%	+2.3	158/158	n=158
in the last 5 seasons	47-45	51%	+2.8	92/92	n=92

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line · x/n = games under the current head coach

BUF — form & streaks

Last 16 games: -0.0 pts vs their number per game	n=16
All 423 graded games: +0.5 pts vs their number per game	n=423

BUF — combinations

64 lean BUF · 8 lean against

Read this first. 94 combinations shown. The best one here is 80%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 80% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Now	Sample
on the road + vs DEN	4-1	80%from 52%	+8.0	2/5	n=5
+ outdoors	4-1	80%from 80%	+8.0	2/5	n=5
+ on grass	4-1	80%from 80%	+8.0	2/5	n=5
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	+8.0	2/5	n=5
+ on grass	4-1	80%from 80%	+8.0	2/5	n=5
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	+8.0	2/5	n=5
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	+8.0	2/5	n=5
on the road + at this venue	4-1	80%from 52%	+8.0	2/5	n=5
vs DEN + in December	4-1	80%from 75%	+13.0	1/5	n=5
+ outdoors	4-1	80%from 80%	+13.0	1/5	n=5
vs DEN + on grass	4-1	80%from 75%	+8.0	2/5	n=5
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	+8.0	2/5	n=5
vs DEN + at this venue	4-1	80%from 75%	+8.0	2/5	n=5
outdoors + at this venue	4-1	80%from 52%	+8.0	2/5	n=5
on grass + at this venue	4-1	80%from 51%	+8.0	2/5	n=5
vs DEN + outdoors	9-3	75%from 75%	+8.5	6/12	n=12
+ on grass	4-1	80%from 75%	+8.0	2/5	n=5
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	+8.0	2/5	n=5
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 75%	+8.0	2/5	n=5
+ under this head coach	4-2	67%from 75%	+9.3	6/6	n=6
vs DEN + under this head coach	4-2	67%from 75%	+9.3	6/6	n=6
on the road + in December	31-23	57%from 52%	+1.1	18/54	n=54
+ under this head coach	12-6	67%from 57%	+4.8	18/18	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-4	60%from 67%	+2.6	10/10	n=10
+ outdoors	28-18	61%from 57%	+2.5	14/46	n=46
+ under this head coach	10-4	71%from 61%	+5.9	14/14	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-2	71%from 61%	+4.9	7/7	n=7
+ on grass	18-15	55%from 61%	+0.2	9/33	n=33
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-4	60%from 57%	+2.6	10/10	n=10
+ on grass	19-15	56%from 57%	+0.6	10/34	n=34
+ under this head coach	7-3	70%from 56%	+7.7	10/10	n=10

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it · “Now” = games played by this team as it exists today

DEN — the basics

427 graded games since 1999

at home	104-112	48%	-0.0	28/216	n=216
vs BUF	3-9	25%	-8.5	3/12	n=12
on Friday/Saturday	8-7	53%	-1.2	3/15	n=15
in December	50-64	44%	-1.5	13/114	n=114
outdoors	185-197	48%	-0.5	42/382	n=382
on grass	167-176	49%	-0.1	38/343	n=343
at this venue	100-107	48%	-0.1	28/207	n=207
under this head coach	27-26	51%	+1.4	53/53	n=53
in the last 5 seasons	42-45	48%	+0.2	53/87	n=87

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line · x/n = games under the current head coach

DEN — form & streaks

Last 16 games: +1.0 pts vs their number per game	n=16
All 427 graded games: -0.6 pts vs their number per game	n=427
DEN has covered 3 straight	n=3

DEN — combinations

75 lean DEN · 45 lean against

Read this first. 134 combinations shown. The best one here is 70%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 71% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Now	Sample
on Friday/Saturday + on grass	7-3	70%from 53%	+5.0	1/10	n=10
+ at this venue	4-3	57%from 70%	-1.6	1/7	n=7
at home + on Friday/Saturday	5-3	63%from 48%	+1.3	1/8	n=8
+ outdoors	5-3	63%from 63%	+1.3	1/8	n=8
+ on grass	5-3	63%from 63%	+1.3	1/8	n=8
+ at this venue	4-3	57%from 63%	-1.6	1/7	n=7
+ on grass	5-3	63%from 63%	+1.3	1/8	n=8
+ at this venue	4-3	57%from 63%	-1.6	1/7	n=7
+ at this venue	4-3	57%from 63%	-1.6	1/7	n=7
at home + under this head coach	17-11	61%from 48%	+3.9	28/28	n=28
+ in the last 5 seasons	17-11	61%from 61%	+3.9	28/28	n=28
at this venue + under this head coach	17-11	61%from 48%	+3.9	28/28	n=28
+ in the last 5 seasons	17-11	61%from 61%	+3.9	28/28	n=28
on Friday/Saturday + outdoors	8-6	57%from 53%	+0.1	2/14	n=14
+ on grass	7-3	70%from 57%	+5.0	1/10	n=10
+ at this venue	4-3	57%from 70%	-1.6	1/7	n=7
+ at this venue	4-3	57%from 57%	-1.6	1/7	n=7
on Friday/Saturday + at this venue	4-3	57%from 53%	-1.6	1/7	n=7
at home + in the last 5 seasons	25-20	56%from 48%	+2.1	28/45	n=45
at this venue + in the last 5 seasons	25-20	56%from 48%	+2.1	28/45	n=45
on grass + under this head coach	21-17	55%from 49%	+1.7	38/38	n=38
+ in the last 5 seasons	21-17	55%from 55%	+1.7	38/38	n=38
outdoors + under this head coach	23-19	55%from 48%	+1.5	42/42	n=42
+ in the last 5 seasons	23-19	55%from 55%	+1.5	42/42	n=42
outdoors + in the last 5 seasons	36-34	51%from 48%	+0.7	42/70	n=70

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it · “Now” = games played by this team as it exists today

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice, picks for profit, or any guarantee of outcome. A trend is a description of the past, not a prediction. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.