NYJ at ARI—

ST Model ARI -7.2

Trends · player props · 2026 week 15

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds of them, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself. There is deliberately no single verdict here.

NYJ — the basics

419 graded games since 1999

on the road	95-116	45%	-1.4	8/211	n=211
vs ARI	2-4	33%	-6.0	0/6	n=6
in the Sunday late window	43-57	43%	-2.5	1/100	n=100
in December	53-60	47%	-1.5	4/113	n=113
on grass	68-76	47%	-0.8	5/144	n=144
under this head coach	7-10	41%	-5.7	17/17	n=17
in the last 5 seasons	33-51	39%	-2.8	17/84	n=84

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line · x/n = games under the current head coach

NYJ — form & streaks

Last 16 games: -6.1 pts vs their number per game	n=16
All 419 graded games: -0.8 pts vs their number per game	n=419
NYJ has failed to cover 5 straight	n=5

NYJ — combinations

7 lean NYJ · 15 lean against

Read this first. 32 combinations shown. The best one here is 62%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 69% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Now	Sample
on grass + under this head coach	3-2	60%from 47%	-1.4	5/5	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 60%	-1.4	5/5	n=5
in December + on grass	22-18	55%from 47%	+0.7	1/40	n=40
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-3	50%from 55%	-6.7	1/6	n=6
on the road + in December	30-28	52%from 45%	-1.5	2/58	n=58
+ on grass	19-14	58%from 52%	+0.6	1/33	n=33
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-3	50%from 58%	-6.7	1/6	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-6	40%from 52%	-7.3	2/10	n=10
in the Sunday late window + on grass	25-24	51%from 43%	-1.8	0/49	n=49
on grass + in the last 5 seasons	12-13	48%from 47%	-2.6	5/25	n=25
on the road + on grass	57-63	48%from 45%	-0.9	4/120	n=120
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-13	46%from 48%	-2.9	4/24	n=24
under this head coach + in the last 5 seasons	7-10	41%from 41%	-5.7	17/17	n=17
on the road + in the Sunday late window	29-42	41%from 45%	-3.5	1/71	n=71
+ on grass	21-22	49%from 41%	-2.9	0/43	n=43
+ in December	7-9	44%from 41%	-3.4	0/16	n=16
+ on grass	5-5	50%from 44%	-4.3	0/10	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-7	22%from 41%	-9.8	1/9	n=9
in the Sunday late window + in December	10-15	40%from 43%	-3.0	0/25	n=25
+ on grass	8-5	62%from 40%	-0.1	0/13	n=13
on the road + under this head coach	3-5	38%from 45%	-4.7	8/8	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-5	38%from 38%	-4.7	8/8	n=8
on the road + in the last 5 seasons	15-26	37%from 45%	-4.5	8/41	n=41
in the Sunday late window + in the last 5 seasons	4-7	36%from 43%	-5.9	1/11	n=11
in December + in the last 5 seasons	6-16	27%from 47%	-6.8	4/22	n=22

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it · “Now” = games played by this team as it exists today

ARI — the basics

424 graded games since 1999

at home	105-109	49%	-0.6	25/214	n=214
vs NYJ	4-2	67%	+6.0	1/6	n=6
off a bye	19-22	46%	-0.9	4/41	n=41
in the Sunday late window	125-121	51%	-0.1	32/246	n=246
in December	58-53	52%	-0.2	13/111	n=111
on grass	157-156	50%	-0.7	35/313	n=313
at this venue	81-83	49%	-0.5	25/164	n=164
under this head coach	26-25	51%	-0.6	51/51	n=51
in the last 5 seasons	44-42	51%	-0.8	51/86	n=86

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line · x/n = games under the current head coach

ARI — form & streaks

Last 16 games: -4.4 pts vs their number per game	n=16
All 424 graded games: -1.0 pts vs their number per game	n=424
ARI has failed to cover 5 straight	n=5

ARI — combinations

18 lean ARI · 95 lean against

Read this first. 123 combinations shown. The best one here is 67%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 79% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Now	Sample
in the Sunday late window + in December	36-28	56%from 51%	+1.1	6/64	n=64
+ on grass	31-25	55%from 56%	+1.3	6/56	n=56
+ at this venue	19-18	51%from 55%	+1.5	5/37	n=37
+ under this head coach	1-5	17%from 55%	-6.8	6/6	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	1-6	14%from 55%	-6.9	6/7	n=7
+ at this venue	19-18	51%from 56%	+1.5	5/37	n=37
+ under this head coach	1-4	20%from 51%	-6.9	5/5	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	1-4	20%from 51%	-6.9	5/5	n=5
+ under this head coach	1-5	17%from 56%	-6.8	6/6	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	1-5	17%from 17%	-6.8	6/6	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	1-6	14%from 56%	-6.9	6/7	n=7
in the Sunday late window + at this venue	70-62	53%from 51%	+0.2	23/132	n=132
+ under this head coach	11-12	48%from 53%	+0.2	23/23	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-12	48%from 48%	+0.2	23/23	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	15-18	45%from 53%	-2.0	23/33	n=33
at home + in December	30-27	53%from 49%	+0.9	5/57	n=57
+ on grass	30-27	53%from 53%	+0.9	5/57	n=57
+ at this venue	22-24	48%from 53%	+0.3	5/46	n=46
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-7	22%from 53%	-6.8	5/9	n=9
+ under this head coach	1-4	20%from 53%	-6.9	5/5	n=5
+ at this venue	22-24	48%from 53%	+0.3	5/46	n=46
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-7	22%from 48%	-6.8	5/9	n=9
+ under this head coach	1-4	20%from 48%	-6.9	5/5	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-7	22%from 53%	-6.8	5/9	n=9
+ under this head coach	1-4	20%from 53%	-6.9	5/5	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	1-4	20%from 20%	-6.9	5/5	n=5

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it · “Now” = games played by this team as it exists today

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice, picks for profit, or any guarantee of outcome. A trend is a description of the past, not a prediction. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.