MIA at DEN—

ST Model DEN -4.6

Trends · player props · 2026 week 13

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds of them, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself. There is deliberately no single verdict here.

MIA — the basics

419 graded games since 1999

on the road	106-104	50%	-0.3	0/210	n=210
vs DEN	8-2	80%	+12.5	0/10	n=10
in the Sunday late window	42-29	59%	+1.4	0/71	n=71
in December	54-59	48%	-0.4	0/113	n=113
outdoors	188-191	50%	-0.3	0/379	n=379
on grass	148-156	49%	-0.1	0/304	n=304
at this venue	4-1	80%	+3.9	0/5	n=5
in the last 5 seasons	44-42	51%	-0.8	0/86	n=86

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line · x/n = games under the current head coach

MIA — form & streaks

Last 16 games: -0.0 pts vs their number per game	n=16
All 419 graded games: -0.2 pts vs their number per game	n=419

MIA — combinations

36 lean MIA · 23 lean against

Read this first. 74 combinations shown. The best one here is 83%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 76% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Now	Sample
vs DEN + outdoors	8-2	80%from 80%	+12.5	0/10	n=10
+ on grass	8-2	80%from 80%	+12.5	0/10	n=10
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	+3.9	0/5	n=5
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	+3.9	0/5	n=5
vs DEN + on grass	8-2	80%from 80%	+12.5	0/10	n=10
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	+3.9	0/5	n=5
on the road + vs DEN	4-1	80%from 50%	+3.9	0/5	n=5
+ outdoors	4-1	80%from 80%	+3.9	0/5	n=5
+ on grass	4-1	80%from 80%	+3.9	0/5	n=5
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	+3.9	0/5	n=5
+ on grass	4-1	80%from 80%	+3.9	0/5	n=5
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	+3.9	0/5	n=5
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	+3.9	0/5	n=5
on the road + at this venue	4-1	80%from 50%	+3.9	0/5	n=5
vs DEN + at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	+3.9	0/5	n=5
outdoors + at this venue	4-1	80%from 50%	+3.9	0/5	n=5
on grass + at this venue	4-1	80%from 49%	+3.9	0/5	n=5
in the Sunday late window + in the last 5 seasons	7-4	64%from 59%	+0.1	0/11	n=11
on the road + in the Sunday late window	31-18	63%from 50%	+2.3	0/49	n=49
+ on grass	18-12	60%from 63%	+2.9	0/30	n=30
+ in December	8-6	57%from 63%	+0.2	0/14	n=14
+ outdoors	6-6	50%from 57%	-1.3	0/12	n=12
+ on grass	3-5	38%from 57%	-2.3	0/8	n=8
+ outdoors	22-17	56%from 63%	+1.6	0/39	n=39
+ on grass	15-11	58%from 56%	+3.4	0/26	n=26
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-4	33%from 56%	-5.8	0/6	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-4	50%from 63%	-3.6	0/8	n=8

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it · “Now” = games played by this team as it exists today

DEN — the basics

427 graded games since 1999

at home	104-112	48%	-0.0	28/216	n=216
vs MIA	2-8	20%	-12.5	1/10	n=10
in the Sunday late window	110-120	48%	-0.1	29/230	n=230
in December	50-64	44%	-1.5	13/114	n=114
outdoors	185-197	48%	-0.5	42/382	n=382
on grass	167-176	49%	-0.1	38/343	n=343
at this venue	100-107	48%	-0.1	28/207	n=207
under this head coach	27-26	51%	+1.4	53/53	n=53
in the last 5 seasons	42-45	48%	+0.2	53/87	n=87

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line · x/n = games under the current head coach

DEN — form & streaks

Last 16 games: +1.0 pts vs their number per game	n=16
All 427 graded games: -0.6 pts vs their number per game	n=427
DEN has covered 3 straight	n=3

DEN — combinations

98 lean DEN · 59 lean against

Read this first. 174 combinations shown. The best one here is 75%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Now	Sample
at home + under this head coach	17-11	61%from 48%	+3.9	28/28	n=28
+ in the last 5 seasons	17-11	61%from 61%	+3.9	28/28	n=28
at this venue + under this head coach	17-11	61%from 48%	+3.9	28/28	n=28
+ in the last 5 seasons	17-11	61%from 61%	+3.9	28/28	n=28
in the Sunday late window + under this head coach	17-12	59%from 48%	+4.0	29/29	n=29
+ in the last 5 seasons	17-12	59%from 59%	+4.0	29/29	n=29
at home + in the last 5 seasons	25-20	56%from 48%	+2.1	28/45	n=45
at this venue + in the last 5 seasons	25-20	56%from 48%	+2.1	28/45	n=45
on grass + under this head coach	21-17	55%from 49%	+1.7	38/38	n=38
+ in the last 5 seasons	21-17	55%from 55%	+1.7	38/38	n=38
outdoors + under this head coach	23-19	55%from 48%	+1.5	42/42	n=42
+ in the last 5 seasons	23-19	55%from 55%	+1.5	42/42	n=42
outdoors + in the last 5 seasons	36-34	51%from 48%	+0.7	42/70	n=70
under this head coach + in the last 5 seasons	27-26	51%from 51%	+1.4	53/53	n=53
in the Sunday late window + outdoors	108-106	50%from 48%	+0.6	23/214	n=214
+ under this head coach	15-8	65%from 50%	+4.6	23/23	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	15-8	65%from 65%	+4.6	23/23	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	22-16	58%from 50%	+2.6	23/38	n=38
+ on grass	100-99	50%from 50%	+0.5	20/199	n=199
+ under this head coach	14-6	70%from 50%	+5.8	20/20	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	20-14	59%from 50%	+2.9	20/34	n=34
+ at this venue	72-79	48%from 50%	-0.0	20/151	n=151
+ at this venue	72-81	47%from 50%	-0.1	22/153	n=153
+ under this head coach	14-8	64%from 47%	+4.8	22/22	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	20-16	56%from 47%	+2.5	22/36	n=36

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it · “Now” = games played by this team as it exists today

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice, picks for profit, or any guarantee of outcome. A trend is a description of the past, not a prediction. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.