How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds of them, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself. There is deliberately no single verdict here.
BUF — the basics
423 graded games since 1999
| on the road | 108-101 | 52% | +0.1 | 77/209 | n=209 |
| vs NE | 20-31 | 39% | -3.7 | 18/51 | n=51 |
| in a division game | 75-84 | 47% | -0.3 | 54/159 | n=159 |
| off a bye | 23-16 | 59% | +4.6 | 16/39 | n=39 |
| in the Sunday late window | 36-25 | 59% | +0.5 | 21/61 | n=61 |
| in December | 57-55 | 51% | +0.6 | 38/112 | n=112 |
| outdoors | 196-182 | 52% | +0.6 | 138/378 | n=378 |
| on turf | 155-146 | 52% | +1.1 | 117/301 | n=301 |
| at this venue | 12-10 | 55% | -0.2 | 8/22 | n=22 |
| under this head coach | 85-73 | 54% | +2.3 | 158/158 | n=158 |
| in the last 5 seasons | 47-45 | 51% | +2.8 | 92/92 | n=92 |
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line · x/n = games under the current head coach
BUF — form & streaks
| Last 16 games: -0.0 pts vs their number per game | n=16 |
| All 423 graded games: +0.5 pts vs their number per game | n=423 |
BUF — combinations
207 lean BUF · 77 lean against
Read this first. 325 combinations shown. The best one here is 83%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 86% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
| Combination | Rec | % | Pts | Now | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| off a bye + in the Sunday late window | 4-1 | 80%from 59% | +7.3 | 2/5 | n=5 |
| in the Sunday late window + under this head coach | 14-7 | 67%from 59% | +2.7 | 21/21 | n=21 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 11-6 | 65%from 67% | +4.2 | 17/17 | n=17 |
| in the Sunday late window + in the last 5 seasons | 11-6 | 65%from 59% | +4.2 | 17/17 | n=17 |
| on the road + off a bye | 9-5 | 64%from 52% | +3.6 | 4/14 | n=14 |
| + outdoors | 9-2 | 82%from 64% | +5.7 | 4/11 | n=11 |
| + on turf | 2-3 | 40%from 64% | 0.0 | 1/5 | n=5 |
| off a bye + outdoors | 21-12 | 64%from 59% | +4.5 | 16/33 | n=33 |
| + on turf | 14-11 | 56%from 64% | +3.9 | 13/25 | n=25 |
| + under this head coach | 5-8 | 38%from 56% | +2.1 | 13/13 | n=13 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-5 | 38%from 56% | +7.3 | 8/8 | n=8 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 6-5 | 55%from 64% | +9.4 | 11/11 | n=11 |
| + under this head coach | 8-8 | 50%from 64% | +4.5 | 16/16 | n=16 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 6-5 | 55%from 50% | +9.4 | 11/11 | n=11 |
| at this venue + under this head coach | 5-3 | 63%from 55% | +2.2 | 8/8 | n=8 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-2 | 60%from 63% | +0.7 | 5/5 | n=5 |
| in the Sunday late window + on turf | 20-13 | 61%from 59% | +3.1 | 12/33 | n=33 |
| + under this head coach | 8-4 | 67%from 61% | +4.3 | 12/12 | n=12 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 8-4 | 67%from 67% | +4.3 | 12/12 | n=12 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 8-4 | 67%from 61% | +4.3 | 12/12 | n=12 |
| in December + at this venue | 6-4 | 60%from 51% | +1.7 | 6/10 | n=10 |
| + under this head coach | 5-1 | 83%from 60% | +6.5 | 6/6 | n=6 |
| at this venue + in the last 5 seasons | 3-2 | 60%from 55% | +0.7 | 5/5 | n=5 |
| on the road + in the Sunday late window | 25-17 | 60%from 52% | +0.2 | 12/42 | n=42 |
| + under this head coach | 8-4 | 67%from 60% | +2.2 | 12/12 | n=12 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 5-3 | 63%from 67% | +5.1 | 8/8 | n=8 |
| + on turf | 9-5 | 64%from 60% | +5.9 | 3/14 | n=14 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 5-3 | 63%from 60% | +5.1 | 8/8 | n=8 |
| + outdoors | 19-15 | 56%from 60% | -0.1 | 8/34 | n=34 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-2 | 67%from 56% | +6.3 | 6/6 | n=6 |
| + under this head coach | 5-3 | 63%from 56% | +2.3 | 8/8 | n=8 |
| + on turf | 6-4 | 60%from 56% | +6.2 | 1/10 | n=10 |
| + in December | 7-7 | 50%from 60% | +1.6 | 5/14 | n=14 |
| + under this head coach | 3-2 | 60%from 50% | +1.8 | 5/5 | n=5 |
| + outdoors | 6-6 | 50%from 50% | +1.6 | 3/12 | n=12 |
| + on turf | 2-3 | 40%from 50% | +3.3 | 2/5 | n=5 |
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it · “Now” = games played by this team as it exists today
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice, picks for profit, or any guarantee of outcome. A trend is a description of the past, not a prediction. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.