KC at BUF—

ST Model BUF -4.6

Since first recorded BUF -2.5o/u 50.5unchanged · 6d ago · 3 books

Trends · player props · 2026 week 12

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds of them, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself. There is deliberately no single verdict here.

KC — the basics

441 graded games since 1999

on the road	115-101	53%	+0.5	112/216	n=216
vs BUF	9-14	39%	-3.8	14/23	n=23
on a short week	8-9	47%	+0.6	13/17	n=17
on Thursday night	10-10	50%	+1.1	16/20	n=20
in November	38-61	38%	-1.5	47/99	n=99
outdoors	202-193	51%	+1.0	203/395	n=395
on turf	43-49	47%	-1.5	61/92	n=92
at this venue	4-4	50%	-2.4	6/8	n=8
under this head coach	122-112	52%	+1.8	234/234	n=234
in the last 5 seasons	44-52	46%	-0.3	96/96	n=96

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line · x/n = games under the current head coach

KC — form & streaks

Last 16 games: -0.5 pts vs their number per game	n=16
All 441 graded games: +0.9 pts vs their number per game	n=441

KC — combinations

40 lean KC · 71 lean against

Read this first. 150 combinations shown. The best one here is 71%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 80% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Now	Sample
on a short week + in the last 5 seasons	4-2	67%from 47%	+3.1	6/6	n=6
at this venue + under this head coach	4-2	67%from 50%	+0.8	6/6	n=6
vs BUF + under this head coach	8-6	57%from 39%	-1.3	14/14	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-5	38%from 57%	-4.1	8/8	n=8
on Thursday night + in the last 5 seasons	4-3	57%from 50%	+0.2	7/7	n=7
on Thursday night + under this head coach	9-7	56%from 50%	+2.3	16/16	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-3	57%from 56%	+0.2	7/7	n=7
vs BUF + on turf	5-4	56%from 39%	-0.9	7/9	n=9
+ under this head coach	5-2	71%from 56%	+2.2	7/7	n=7
+ at this venue	4-4	50%from 56%	-2.4	6/8	n=8
+ under this head coach	4-2	67%from 50%	+0.8	6/6	n=6
on the road + under this head coach	62-50	55%from 53%	+2.3	112/112	n=112
+ in the last 5 seasons	20-25	44%from 55%	-1.3	45/45	n=45
on the road + outdoors	94-77	55%from 53%	+0.7	82/171	n=171
+ under this head coach	47-35	57%from 55%	+2.7	82/82	n=82
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-17	39%from 57%	-2.7	28/28	n=28
+ at this venue	4-4	50%from 55%	-2.4	6/8	n=8
+ under this head coach	4-2	67%from 50%	+0.8	6/6	n=6
+ on turf	20-21	49%from 55%	-1.2	22/41	n=41
+ at this venue	4-4	50%from 49%	-2.4	6/8	n=8
+ under this head coach	10-12	45%from 49%	+0.1	22/22	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-6	40%from 49%	-0.5	10/10	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-17	39%from 55%	-2.7	28/28	n=28
on a short week + under this head coach	7-6	54%from 47%	+2.1	13/13	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-2	67%from 54%	+3.1	6/6	n=6

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it · “Now” = games played by this team as it exists today

BUF — the basics

423 graded games since 1999

at home	109-105	51%	+0.9	81/214	n=214
vs KC	14-9	61%	+3.8	11/23	n=23
on a short week	5-9	36%	+0.2	8/14	n=14
on Thursday night	8-9	47%	+2.7	10/17	n=17
in November	50-45	53%	-0.3	35/95	n=95
outdoors	196-182	52%	+0.6	138/378	n=378
on turf	155-146	52%	+1.1	117/301	n=301
at this venue	106-100	51%	+1.0	79/206	n=206
under this head coach	85-73	54%	+2.3	158/158	n=158
in the last 5 seasons	47-45	51%	+2.8	92/92	n=92

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line · x/n = games under the current head coach

BUF — form & streaks

Last 16 games: -0.0 pts vs their number per game	n=16
All 423 graded games: +0.5 pts vs their number per game	n=423

BUF — combinations

98 lean BUF · 45 lean against

Read this first. 179 combinations shown. The best one here is 70%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 80% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Now	Sample
vs KC + in November	7-3	70%from 61%	+5.3	3/10	n=10
+ outdoors	7-3	70%from 70%	+5.3	3/10	n=10
+ on turf	3-2	60%from 70%	+2.6	2/5	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 70%	+2.6	2/5	n=5
+ on turf	3-2	60%from 70%	+2.6	2/5	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	+2.6	2/5	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 70%	+2.6	2/5	n=5
vs KC + in the last 5 seasons	5-3	63%from 61%	+4.1	8/8	n=8
vs KC + outdoors	14-9	61%from 61%	+3.8	11/23	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-3	63%from 61%	+4.1	8/8	n=8
+ under this head coach	6-5	55%from 61%	+3.0	11/11	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-3	63%from 55%	+4.1	8/8	n=8
+ at this venue	4-4	50%from 61%	+2.4	4/8	n=8
+ on turf	4-5	44%from 61%	+0.9	5/9	n=9
+ at this venue	4-4	50%from 44%	+2.4	4/8	n=8
+ under this head coach	2-3	40%from 44%	-0.8	5/5	n=5
in November + on turf	39-29	57%from 53%	+1.4	27/68	n=68
+ under this head coach	15-12	56%from 57%	+0.4	27/27	n=27
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-8	50%from 56%	-0.8	16/16	n=16
+ at this venue	24-20	55%from 57%	-1.1	16/44	n=44
+ under this head coach	9-7	56%from 55%	-1.9	16/16	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-4	50%from 55%	-2.0	8/8	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-8	50%from 57%	-0.8	16/16	n=16
at home + in November	26-20	57%from 51%	-0.4	17/46	n=46
+ under this head coach	10-7	59%from 57%	-1.8	17/17	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-4	56%from 59%	-1.7	9/9	n=9
+ on turf	26-20	57%from 57%	-0.4	17/46	n=46
+ under this head coach	10-7	59%from 57%	-1.8	17/17	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-4	56%from 57%	-1.7	9/9	n=9
+ at this venue	24-20	55%from 57%	-1.1	16/44	n=44
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-4	56%from 57%	-1.7	9/9	n=9
+ outdoors	24-20	55%from 57%	-1.1	16/44	n=44
+ under this head coach	9-7	56%from 55%	-1.9	16/16	n=16
+ on turf	24-20	55%from 55%	-1.1	16/44	n=44
+ at this venue	24-20	55%from 55%	-1.1	16/44	n=44
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-4	50%from 55%	-2.0	8/8	n=8
+ at this venue	24-20	55%from 57%	-1.1	16/44	n=44
+ under this head coach	9-7	56%from 55%	-1.9	16/16	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-4	50%from 55%	-2.0	8/8	n=8

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it · “Now” = games played by this team as it exists today

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice, picks for profit, or any guarantee of outcome. A trend is a description of the past, not a prediction. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.