BAL at BUF

ST Model BUF -4.2
Trends · player props · 2026 week 8
How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds of them, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself. There is deliberately no single verdict here.
BAL — the basics
439 graded games since 1999
on the road122-10254%+1.70/224n=224
vs BUF6-650%+2.80/12n=12
in the Sunday early window137-12053%+2.70/257n=257
in November55-4456%+3.30/99n=99
outdoors213-19652%+2.30/409n=409
on turf97-8952%+2.60/186n=186
at this venue1-517%-5.30/6n=6
in the last 5 seasons44-4450%+1.30/88n=88
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line · x/n = games under the current head coach
BAL — form & streaks
Last 16 games: -2.5 pts vs their number per gamen=16
All 439 graded games: +2.2 pts vs their number per gamen=439
BAL — combinations
32 lean BAL · 35 lean against
Read this first. 78 combinations shown. The best one here is 80%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 80% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
CombinationRec%PtsNowSample
on turf + in the last 5 seasons15-575%from 52%+3.90/20n=20
in the Sunday early window + in November38-2461%from 53%+5.50/62n=62
+ on turf18-1064%from 61%+6.50/28n=28
+ outdoors35-2360%from 61%+5.50/58n=58
+ on turf15-963%from 60%+6.80/24n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons2-722%from 60%+2.40/9n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons3-730%from 61%+2.50/10n=10
vs BUF + in the Sunday early window4-357%from 50%+3.60/7n=7
+ outdoors4-357%from 57%+3.60/7n=7
+ on turf2-340%from 57%-2.80/5n=5
+ on turf2-340%from 57%-2.80/5n=5
on the road + in the last 5 seasons24-1956%from 54%+2.00/43n=43
in November + on turf24-1956%from 56%+3.70/43n=43
on the road + in the Sunday early window64-5355%from 54%+1.80/117n=117
+ in November16-964%from 55%+4.40/25n=25
+ outdoors13-862%from 64%+4.40/21n=21
+ on turf5-456%from 64%+1.70/9n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons11-858%from 55%+1.10/19n=19
+ outdoors58-4755%from 55%+2.20/105n=105
+ in the last 5 seasons10-759%from 55%+1.30/17n=17
+ on turf17-2046%from 55%+0.50/37n=37
+ on turf23-2449%from 55%+0.70/47n=47
+ in the last 5 seasons8-373%from 49%+2.60/11n=11
on the road + in November26-2254%from 54%+1.50/48n=48
+ outdoors19-1950%from 54%+0.70/38n=38
+ on turf2-625%from 50%-5.10/8n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons0-50%from 50%-6.50/5n=5
+ on turf9-950%from 54%+0.20/18n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons4-544%from 54%-0.60/9n=9
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it · “Now” = games played by this team as it exists today
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice, picks for profit, or any guarantee of outcome. A trend is a description of the past, not a prediction. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.