NE at BUFBUF -3o/u 49.5

ST Model BUF -5.8(+2.8 vs market)

Since first recorded BUF -3o/u 49.5unchanged · 49d ago · 1 books

Trends · player props · 2026 week 4

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds of them, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself. There is deliberately no single verdict here.

NE — the basics

455 graded games since 1999

on the road	127-93	58%	+3.3	9/220	n=220
vs BUF	31-20	61%	+3.7	2/51	n=51
as an underdog	70-54	56%	+3.6	7/124	n=124
spread 3	28-30	48%	+0.2	1/58	n=58
in a division game	91-67	58%	+2.9	6/158	n=158
in the Sunday early window	125-91	58%	+3.0	12/216	n=216
in October	68-38	64%	+3.8	4/106	n=106
outdoors	232-176	57%	+2.8	20/408	n=408
on turf	154-110	58%	+3.9	15/264	n=264
at this venue	20-7	74%	+6.9	1/27	n=27
under this head coach	14-7	67%	+5.3	21/21	n=21
in the last 5 seasons	43-44	49%	+1.3	21/87	n=87

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line · x/n = games under the current head coach

NE — form & streaks

Last 16 games: +5.3 pts vs their number per game	n=16
All 455 graded games: +2.8 pts vs their number per game	n=455
NE has failed to cover 2 straight	n=2

NE — combinations

374 lean NE · 26 lean against

Read this first. 428 combinations shown. The best one here is 100%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 100% by chance alone, and about 1 perfect record — this matchup has 21.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Now	Sample
in October + at this venue	6-0	100%from 64%	+11.3	1/6	n=6
in a division game + under this head coach	5-1	83%from 58%	+8.4	6/6	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-1	83%from 83%	+8.4	6/6	n=6
on the road + under this head coach	7-2	78%from 58%	+7.2	9/9	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-2	78%from 78%	+7.2	9/9	n=9
vs BUF + in October	7-2	78%from 61%	+6.4	1/9	n=9
+ at this venue	6-0	100%from 78%	+11.3	1/6	n=6
+ on turf	7-1	88%from 78%	+7.4	1/8	n=8
+ at this venue	6-0	100%from 88%	+11.3	1/6	n=6
+ outdoors	7-2	78%from 78%	+6.4	1/9	n=9
+ at this venue	6-0	100%from 78%	+11.3	1/6	n=6
+ on turf	7-1	88%from 78%	+7.4	1/8	n=8
as an underdog + at this venue	9-3	75%from 56%	+3.9	1/12	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-2	67%from 75%	+1.3	1/6	n=6
on the road + vs BUF	20-7	74%from 58%	+6.9	1/27	n=27
+ in October	6-0	100%from 74%	+11.3	1/6	n=6
+ outdoors	6-0	100%from 100%	+11.3	1/6	n=6
+ on turf	6-0	100%from 100%	+11.3	1/6	n=6
+ at this venue	6-0	100%from 100%	+11.3	1/6	n=6
+ as an underdog	9-3	75%from 74%	+3.9	1/12	n=12
+ in a division game	9-3	75%from 75%	+3.9	1/12	n=12
+ outdoors	9-3	75%from 75%	+3.9	1/12	n=12
+ on turf	9-3	75%from 75%	+3.9	1/12	n=12
+ at this venue	9-3	75%from 75%	+3.9	1/12	n=12
+ in the Sunday early window	6-2	75%from 75%	+5.4	0/8	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-2	67%from 75%	+1.3	1/6	n=6
+ in a division game	20-7	74%from 74%	+6.9	1/27	n=27
+ in October	6-0	100%from 74%	+11.3	1/6	n=6
+ outdoors	20-7	74%from 74%	+6.9	1/27	n=27
+ on turf	20-7	74%from 74%	+6.9	1/27	n=27
+ at this venue	20-7	74%from 74%	+6.9	1/27	n=27
+ in the Sunday early window	15-6	71%from 74%	+7.1	0/21	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-2	67%from 74%	+1.3	1/6	n=6
+ outdoors	20-7	74%from 74%	+6.9	1/27	n=27
+ on turf	20-7	74%from 74%	+6.9	1/27	n=27
+ at this venue	20-7	74%from 74%	+6.9	1/27	n=27
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-2	67%from 74%	+1.3	1/6	n=6
+ on turf	20-7	74%from 74%	+6.9	1/27	n=27
+ at this venue	20-7	74%from 74%	+6.9	1/27	n=27
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-2	67%from 74%	+1.3	1/6	n=6
+ at this venue	20-7	74%from 74%	+6.9	1/27	n=27
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-2	67%from 74%	+1.3	1/6	n=6
+ in the Sunday early window	15-6	71%from 74%	+7.1	0/21	n=21
+ outdoors	15-6	71%from 71%	+7.1	0/21	n=21
+ on turf	15-6	71%from 71%	+7.1	0/21	n=21
+ at this venue	15-6	71%from 71%	+7.1	0/21	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-2	67%from 74%	+1.3	1/6	n=6

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it · “Now” = games played by this team as it exists today

BUF — the basics

423 graded games since 1999

at home	109-105	51%	+0.9	81/214	n=214
vs NE	20-31	39%	-3.7	18/51	n=51
as a favorite	107-96	53%	+1.8	104/203	n=203
spread 3	31-29	52%	-0.2	13/60	n=60
in a division game	75-84	47%	-0.3	54/159	n=159
in the Sunday early window	148-139	52%	+0.3	88/287	n=287
in October	46-52	47%	-0.7	32/98	n=98
outdoors	196-182	52%	+0.6	138/378	n=378
on turf	155-146	52%	+1.1	117/301	n=301
at this venue	106-100	51%	+1.0	79/206	n=206
under this head coach	85-73	54%	+2.3	158/158	n=158
in the last 5 seasons	47-45	51%	+2.8	92/92	n=92

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line · x/n = games under the current head coach

BUF — form & streaks

Last 16 games: -0.0 pts vs their number per game	n=16
All 423 graded games: +0.5 pts vs their number per game	n=423

BUF — combinations

207 lean BUF · 357 lean against

Read this first. 614 combinations shown. The best one here is 80%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 86% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Now	Sample
as a favorite + spread 3	15-11	58%from 53%	+0.2	8/26	n=26
+ in October	4-2	67%from 58%	+1.3	3/6	n=6
+ outdoors	3-2	60%from 67%	+0.8	2/5	n=5
+ in the Sunday early window	9-7	56%from 58%	-0.3	1/16	n=16
+ outdoors	9-7	56%from 56%	-0.3	1/16	n=16
+ at this venue	5-5	50%from 56%	-4.3	0/10	n=10
+ on turf	6-7	46%from 56%	-3.5	1/13	n=13
+ outdoors	14-11	56%from 58%	+0.1	7/25	n=25
+ at this venue	8-7	53%from 56%	-1.7	2/15	n=15
+ on turf	10-10	50%from 56%	-1.3	5/20	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 56%	+2.6	5/5	n=5
+ under this head coach	2-5	29%from 56%	-4.6	7/7	n=7
+ at this venue	8-7	53%from 58%	-1.7	2/15	n=15
+ on turf	10-10	50%from 58%	-1.3	5/20	n=20
+ at this venue	8-7	53%from 50%	-1.7	2/15	n=15
+ under this head coach	1-4	20%from 50%	-3.8	5/5	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 58%	+2.6	5/5	n=5
+ under this head coach	3-5	38%from 58%	-3.5	8/8	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 38%	+2.6	5/5	n=5
+ in a division game	2-5	29%from 58%	-10.3	3/7	n=7
+ at this venue	2-3	40%from 29%	-9.2	1/5	n=5
+ outdoors	2-5	29%from 29%	-10.3	3/7	n=7
+ on turf	2-5	29%from 29%	-10.3	3/7	n=7
spread 3 + in October	8-6	57%from 52%	+1.3	4/14	n=14
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 57%	+2.3	0/6	n=6
+ on turf	7-4	64%from 57%	+5.5	2/11	n=11
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 64%	+2.3	0/6	n=6
+ outdoors	7-6	54%from 57%	+1.1	3/13	n=13
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 54%	+2.3	0/6	n=6
+ on turf	7-4	64%from 54%	+5.5	2/11	n=11

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it · “Now” = games played by this team as it exists today

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice, picks for profit, or any guarantee of outcome. A trend is a description of the past, not a prediction. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.