MIA at MINMIN -7.5o/u 43.5

ST Model MIN -4.5(-3 vs market)

Since first recorded MIN -7.5o/u 43.5unchanged · 49d ago · 2 books

Trends · player props · 2026 week 4

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds of them, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself. There is deliberately no single verdict here.

MIA — the basics

419 graded games since 1999

on the road	106-104	50%	-0.3	0/210	n=210
vs MIN	2-5	29%	-3.2	0/7	n=7
as an underdog	121-121	50%	+0.2	0/242	n=242
spread 7-9.5	29-27	52%	+0.8	0/56	n=56
in the Sunday late window	42-29	59%	+1.4	0/71	n=71
in October	47-49	49%	+0.1	0/96	n=96
indoors	21-19	53%	+0.8	0/40	n=40
on turf	61-54	53%	-0.6	0/115	n=115
in the last 5 seasons	44-42	51%	-0.8	0/86	n=86

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line · x/n = games under the current head coach

MIA — form & streaks

Last 16 games: -0.0 pts vs their number per game	n=16
All 419 graded games: -0.2 pts vs their number per game	n=419

MIA — combinations

53 lean MIA · 27 lean against

Read this first. 104 combinations shown. The best one here is 100%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 83% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 7.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Now	Sample
spread 7-9.5 + in the Sunday late window	7-0	100%from 52%	+12.7	0/7	n=7
in the Sunday late window + indoors	9-1	90%from 59%	+5.0	0/10	n=10
+ on turf	6-0	100%from 90%	+8.8	0/6	n=6
spread 7-9.5 + in the last 5 seasons	10-2	83%from 52%	+12.1	0/12	n=12
in the Sunday late window + on turf	13-6	68%from 59%	+1.4	0/19	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 68%	-6.4	0/5	n=5
in the Sunday late window + in the last 5 seasons	7-4	64%from 59%	+0.1	0/11	n=11
on the road + in the Sunday late window	31-18	63%from 50%	+2.3	0/49	n=49
+ indoors	9-1	90%from 63%	+5.0	0/10	n=10
+ on turf	6-0	100%from 90%	+8.8	0/6	n=6
+ on turf	13-6	68%from 63%	+1.4	0/19	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 68%	-6.4	0/5	n=5
+ in October	4-3	57%from 63%	+7.1	0/7	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-4	50%from 63%	-3.6	0/8	n=8
spread 7-9.5 + in October	10-6	63%from 52%	+5.7	0/16	n=16
+ on turf	2-3	40%from 63%	-1.2	0/5	n=5
on turf + in the last 5 seasons	16-10	62%from 53%	-0.4	0/26	n=26
indoors + in the last 5 seasons	6-4	60%from 53%	+2.1	0/10	n=10
as an underdog + in the Sunday late window	29-20	59%from 50%	+2.1	0/49	n=49
+ indoors	9-1	90%from 59%	+5.0	0/10	n=10
+ on turf	6-0	100%from 90%	+8.8	0/6	n=6
+ on turf	12-6	67%from 59%	+1.4	0/18	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 67%	-6.4	0/5	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-4	56%from 59%	-1.5	0/9	n=9
+ in October	2-4	33%from 59%	+6.4	0/6	n=6

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it · “Now” = games played by this team as it exists today

MIN — the basics

424 graded games since 1999

at home	114-98	54%	+1.1	35/212	n=212
vs MIA	5-2	71%	+3.2	1/7	n=7
as a favorite	113-112	50%	-0.6	39/225	n=225
spread 7-9.5	32-29	52%	+1.1	5/61	n=61
in the Sunday late window	28-29	49%	0.0	8/57	n=57
in October	49-48	51%	-1.4	15/97	n=97
indoors	132-117	53%	+1.1	42/249	n=249
on turf	156-142	52%	+0.8	48/298	n=298
at this venue	43-39	52%	+1.0	34/82	n=82
under this head coach	34-31	52%	+0.3	65/65	n=65
in the last 5 seasons	43-39	52%	+0.2	65/82	n=82

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line · x/n = games under the current head coach

MIN — form & streaks

Last 16 games: +1.9 pts vs their number per game	n=16
All 424 graded games: -0.1 pts vs their number per game	n=424
MIN has covered 5 straight	n=5

MIN — combinations

65 lean MIN · 156 lean against

Read this first. 250 combinations shown. The best one here is 83%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 83% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Now	Sample
spread 7-9.5 + at this venue	5-1	83%from 52%	+10.2	3/6	n=6
spread 7-9.5 + under this head coach	4-1	80%from 52%	+10.7	5/5	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-1	80%from 80%	+10.7	5/5	n=5
spread 7-9.5 + in the last 5 seasons	6-2	75%from 52%	+6.3	5/8	n=8
spread 7-9.5 + indoors	17-12	59%from 52%	+4.5	4/29	n=29
+ at this venue	5-1	83%from 59%	+10.2	3/6	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-1	80%from 59%	+9.3	4/5	n=5
+ on turf	16-12	57%from 59%	+3.8	4/28	n=28
+ at this venue	5-1	83%from 57%	+10.2	3/6	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-1	80%from 57%	+9.3	4/5	n=5
spread 7-9.5 + on turf	21-15	58%from 52%	+4.2	4/36	n=36
+ at this venue	5-1	83%from 58%	+10.2	3/6	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-1	80%from 58%	+9.3	4/5	n=5
in the Sunday late window + in October	7-5	58%from 49%	+3.8	1/12	n=12
+ indoors	4-2	67%from 58%	+5.1	1/6	n=6
+ on turf	4-2	67%from 67%	+5.1	1/6	n=6
+ on turf	5-4	56%from 58%	+5.4	1/9	n=9
as a favorite + in October	33-24	58%from 50%	-0.3	11/57	n=57
+ under this head coach	7-4	64%from 58%	+1.1	11/11	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-4	64%from 64%	+1.1	11/11	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-6	57%from 58%	-0.0	11/14	n=14
+ on turf	23-19	55%from 58%	-0.2	5/42	n=42
+ at this venue	5-7	42%from 55%	-1.3	3/12	n=12
+ under this head coach	1-4	20%from 55%	-3.2	5/5	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	1-6	14%from 55%	-4.6	5/7	n=7
+ indoors	20-17	54%from 58%	-0.7	4/37	n=37
+ on turf	20-17	54%from 54%	-0.7	4/37	n=37
+ at this venue	5-7	42%from 54%	-1.3	3/12	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	1-5	17%from 54%	-5.3	4/6	n=6
+ at this venue	5-7	42%from 58%	-1.3	3/12	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	1-4	20%from 42%	-3.7	3/5	n=5

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it · “Now” = games played by this team as it exists today

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice, picks for profit, or any guarantee of outcome. A trend is a description of the past, not a prediction. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.