KC at LVKC -5.5o/u 43.5

ST Model KC -4.5(+1 vs market)

Since first recorded KC -5.5o/u 43.5unchanged · 49d ago · 2 books

Trends · player props · 2026 week 4

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds of them, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself. There is deliberately no single verdict here.

KC — the basics

441 graded games since 1999

on the road	115-101	53%	+0.5	112/216	n=216
vs LV	25-26	49%	+1.2	26/51	n=51
as a favorite	131-145	47%	+0.9	189/276	n=276
spread 3.5-6.5	72-72	50%	+0.7	82/144	n=144
in a division game	79-78	50%	+0.7	77/157	n=157
in the Sunday late window	60-53	53%	+1.7	65/113	n=113
in October	59-42	58%	+1.9	52/101	n=101
indoors	22-24	48%	-0.3	31/46	n=46
on grass	181-168	52%	+1.5	173/349	n=349
at this venue	4-3	57%	+4.6	7/7	n=7
under this head coach	122-112	52%	+1.8	234/234	n=234
in the last 5 seasons	44-52	46%	-0.3	96/96	n=96

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line · x/n = games under the current head coach

KC — form & streaks

Last 16 games: -0.5 pts vs their number per game	n=16
All 441 graded games: +0.9 pts vs their number per game	n=441

KC — combinations

244 lean KC · 161 lean against

Read this first. 532 combinations shown. The best one here is 83%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 88% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Now	Sample
at this venue + in the last 5 seasons	4-2	67%from 57%	+5.9	6/6	n=6
spread 3.5-6.5 + in October	23-14	62%from 50%	+1.7	18/37	n=37
+ on grass	18-9	67%from 62%	+3.9	11/27	n=27
+ under this head coach	7-4	64%from 67%	+1.9	11/11	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 67%	-1.3	5/5	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-2	67%from 62%	-0.5	6/6	n=6
+ under this head coach	10-8	56%from 62%	+0.1	18/18	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-2	67%from 56%	-0.5	6/6	n=6
on the road + vs LV	16-10	62%from 53%	+3.5	13/26	n=26
+ in October	4-2	67%from 62%	+7.7	3/6	n=6
+ on grass	4-2	67%from 67%	+7.7	3/6	n=6
+ in the Sunday late window	11-6	65%from 62%	+4.8	8/17	n=17
+ on grass	11-6	65%from 65%	+4.8	8/17	n=17
+ under this head coach	5-3	63%from 65%	+5.8	8/8	n=8
+ in a division game	16-10	62%from 62%	+3.5	13/26	n=26
+ in October	4-2	67%from 62%	+7.7	3/6	n=6
+ in the Sunday late window	11-6	65%from 62%	+4.8	8/17	n=17
+ on grass	16-10	62%from 62%	+3.5	13/26	n=26
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 62%	+6.2	5/5	n=5
+ under this head coach	7-6	54%from 62%	+4.7	13/13	n=13
+ indoors	3-3	50%from 62%	+4.6	6/6	n=6
+ at this venue	3-3	50%from 62%	+4.6	6/6	n=6
+ on grass	16-10	62%from 62%	+3.5	13/26	n=26
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 62%	+6.2	5/5	n=5
+ under this head coach	7-6	54%from 62%	+4.7	13/13	n=13
+ at this venue	3-3	50%from 62%	+4.6	6/6	n=6
+ as a favorite	11-7	61%from 62%	+4.1	13/18	n=18
+ in a division game	11-7	61%from 61%	+4.1	13/18	n=18
+ on grass	11-7	61%from 61%	+4.1	13/18	n=18
+ in the Sunday late window	6-4	60%from 61%	+4.8	8/10	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 61%	+6.2	5/5	n=5
+ under this head coach	7-6	54%from 61%	+4.7	13/13	n=13
+ indoors	3-3	50%from 61%	+4.6	6/6	n=6
+ at this venue	3-3	50%from 61%	+4.6	6/6	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 62%	+6.2	5/5	n=5
+ under this head coach	7-6	54%from 62%	+4.7	13/13	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 54%	+6.2	5/5	n=5
+ spread 3.5-6.5	3-3	50%from 62%	+3.7	2/6	n=6
+ in a division game	3-3	50%from 50%	+3.7	2/6	n=6
+ on grass	3-3	50%from 50%	+3.7	2/6	n=6
+ in the Sunday late window	2-3	40%from 50%	+3.9	2/5	n=5
+ indoors	3-3	50%from 62%	+4.6	6/6	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 50%	+6.2	5/5	n=5
+ on grass	3-3	50%from 50%	+4.6	6/6	n=6
+ at this venue	3-3	50%from 50%	+4.6	6/6	n=6
+ under this head coach	3-3	50%from 50%	+4.6	6/6	n=6
+ at this venue	3-3	50%from 62%	+4.6	6/6	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 50%	+6.2	5/5	n=5
+ under this head coach	3-3	50%from 50%	+4.6	6/6	n=6

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it · “Now” = games played by this team as it exists today

LV — the basics

419 graded games since 1999

at home	95-116	45%	-1.6	0/211	n=211
vs KC	26-25	51%	-1.2	0/51	n=51
as an underdog	134-142	49%	-1.4	0/276	n=276
spread 3.5-6.5	62-70	47%	-1.8	0/132	n=132
in a division game	78-78	50%	+0.0	0/156	n=156
in the Sunday late window	102-118	46%	-1.1	0/220	n=220
in October	44-53	45%	-2.1	0/97	n=97
indoors	48-43	53%	-2.2	0/91	n=91
on grass	167-179	48%	-0.9	0/346	n=346
at this venue	27-23	54%	-1.0	0/50	n=50
in the last 5 seasons	41-43	49%	-1.7	0/84	n=84

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line · x/n = games under the current head coach

LV — form & streaks

Last 16 games: -7.0 pts vs their number per game	n=16
All 419 graded games: -1.6 pts vs their number per game	n=419

LV — combinations

194 lean LV · 177 lean against

Read this first. 444 combinations shown. The best one here is 78%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 83% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Now	Sample
in October + at this venue	7-4	64%from 45%	-1.6	0/11	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-2	78%from 64%	+0.9	0/9	n=9
vs KC + spread 3.5-6.5	8-5	62%from 51%	+1.5	0/13	n=13
+ in the Sunday late window	4-2	67%from 62%	-3.2	0/6	n=6
+ on grass	4-2	67%from 67%	-3.2	0/6	n=6
+ in a division game	8-5	62%from 62%	+1.5	0/13	n=13
+ in the Sunday late window	4-2	67%from 62%	-3.2	0/6	n=6
+ on grass	8-5	62%from 62%	+1.5	0/13	n=13
+ on grass	8-5	62%from 62%	+1.5	0/13	n=13
in a division game + at this venue	11-7	61%from 50%	+2.3	0/18	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-6	60%from 61%	+1.6	0/15	n=15
indoors + on grass	32-24	57%from 53%	-0.4	0/56	n=56
+ in the last 5 seasons	23-19	55%from 57%	-1.0	0/42	n=42
+ at this venue	27-23	54%from 57%	-1.0	0/50	n=50
+ in the last 5 seasons	23-19	55%from 54%	-1.0	0/42	n=42
in the Sunday late window + in the last 5 seasons	23-18	56%from 46%	-0.5	0/41	n=41
in a division game + in the last 5 seasons	16-13	55%from 50%	+0.2	0/29	n=29
at home + in the last 5 seasons	23-19	55%from 45%	-1.0	0/42	n=42
vs KC + as an underdog	23-19	55%from 51%	-0.7	0/42	n=42
+ spread 3.5-6.5	6-4	60%from 55%	+2.5	0/10	n=10
+ in a division game	6-4	60%from 60%	+2.5	0/10	n=10
+ on grass	6-4	60%from 60%	+2.5	0/10	n=10
+ in October	6-4	60%from 55%	+0.4	0/10	n=10
+ on grass	5-4	56%from 60%	-1.7	0/9	n=9
+ on grass	22-18	55%from 55%	-0.7	0/40	n=40
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-5	50%from 55%	-4.3	0/10	n=10
+ at this venue	3-3	50%from 55%	-4.6	0/6	n=6
+ in a division game	23-19	55%from 55%	-0.7	0/42	n=42
+ in October	6-4	60%from 55%	+0.4	0/10	n=10
+ on grass	22-18	55%from 55%	-0.7	0/40	n=40
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-5	50%from 55%	-4.3	0/10	n=10
+ indoors	3-3	50%from 55%	-4.6	0/6	n=6
+ at this venue	3-3	50%from 55%	-4.6	0/6	n=6
+ in the Sunday late window	7-8	47%from 55%	-4.4	0/15	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-5	50%from 55%	-4.3	0/10	n=10
+ indoors	3-3	50%from 55%	-4.6	0/6	n=6
+ on grass	3-3	50%from 50%	-4.6	0/6	n=6
+ at this venue	3-3	50%from 50%	-4.6	0/6	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 50%	-6.2	0/5	n=5
+ at this venue	3-3	50%from 55%	-4.6	0/6	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 50%	-6.2	0/5	n=5
+ in the Sunday late window	7-8	47%from 55%	-4.4	0/15	n=15
+ on grass	7-7	50%from 47%	-3.3	0/14	n=14

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it · “Now” = games played by this team as it exists today

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice, picks for profit, or any guarantee of outcome. A trend is a description of the past, not a prediction. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.