DEN at SFSF -2.5o/u 46.5

ST Model SF -4.4(+1.9 vs market)

Since first recorded SF -2.5o/u 46.5unchanged · 49d ago · 2 books

Trends · player props · 2026 week 4

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds of them, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself. There is deliberately no single verdict here.

DEN — the basics

427 graded games since 1999

on the road	100-111	47%	-1.3	25/211	n=211
vs SF	4-3	57%	+3.9	0/7	n=7
as an underdog	91-82	53%	-0.1	24/173	n=173
spread 1-2.5	38-42	48%	+0.5	11/80	n=80
in the Sunday late window	110-120	48%	-0.1	29/230	n=230
in October	50-53	49%	-1.3	12/103	n=103
outdoors	185-197	48%	-0.5	42/382	n=382
on grass	167-176	49%	-0.1	38/343	n=343
under this head coach	27-26	51%	+1.4	53/53	n=53
in the last 5 seasons	42-45	48%	+0.2	53/87	n=87

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line · x/n = games under the current head coach

DEN — form & streaks

Last 16 games: +1.0 pts vs their number per game	n=16
All 427 graded games: -0.6 pts vs their number per game	n=427
DEN has covered 3 straight	n=3

DEN — combinations

105 lean DEN · 90 lean against

Read this first. 222 combinations shown. The best one here is 80%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 83% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Now	Sample
spread 1-2.5 + under this head coach	7-4	64%from 48%	+5.8	11/11	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-4	64%from 64%	+5.8	11/11	n=11
in the Sunday late window + under this head coach	17-12	59%from 48%	+4.0	29/29	n=29
+ in the last 5 seasons	17-12	59%from 59%	+4.0	29/29	n=29
in October + under this head coach	7-5	58%from 49%	+4.3	12/12	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-5	58%from 58%	+4.3	12/12	n=12
vs SF + outdoors	4-3	57%from 57%	+3.9	0/7	n=7
+ on grass	4-3	57%from 57%	+3.9	0/7	n=7
vs SF + on grass	4-3	57%from 57%	+3.9	0/7	n=7
as an underdog + outdoors	80-64	56%from 53%	+0.3	17/144	n=144
+ in the last 5 seasons	17-11	61%from 56%	+1.4	17/28	n=28
+ under this head coach	10-7	59%from 56%	+0.1	17/17	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-7	59%from 59%	+0.1	17/17	n=17
+ on grass	67-52	56%from 56%	+0.7	12/119	n=119
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-9	59%from 56%	+1.6	12/22	n=22
+ under this head coach	7-5	58%from 56%	+0.2	12/12	n=12
as an underdog + spread 1-2.5	20-16	56%from 53%	+2.3	3/36	n=36
+ outdoors	18-12	60%from 56%	+3.2	1/30	n=30
+ on grass	14-10	58%from 60%	+4.0	1/24	n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-3	57%from 60%	+3.4	1/7	n=7
+ in the Sunday late window	10-7	59%from 56%	+3.6	2/17	n=17
+ outdoors	10-4	71%from 59%	+4.9	1/14	n=14
+ on grass	9-5	64%from 59%	+4.4	1/14	n=14
+ in October	2-3	40%from 59%	-7.9	0/5	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 59%	+3.0	2/5	n=5
+ on grass	14-11	56%from 56%	+3.6	1/25	n=25
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-4	43%from 56%	+1.7	1/7	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-5	50%from 56%	+2.1	3/10	n=10
+ in October	5-6	45%from 56%	-3.4	0/11	n=11
+ outdoors	5-5	50%from 45%	-3.0	0/10	n=10
+ on grass	2-5	29%from 45%	-5.1	0/7	n=7

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it · “Now” = games played by this team as it exists today

SF — the basics

434 graded games since 1999

at home	106-111	49%	+0.6	79/217	n=217
vs DEN	3-4	43%	-3.9	2/7	n=7
as a favorite	115-111	51%	+1.4	104/226	n=226
spread 1-2.5	30-41	42%	-0.2	32/71	n=71
in the Sunday late window	106-110	49%	-0.2	78/216	n=216
in October	50-56	47%	-1.1	40/106	n=106
outdoors	174-181	49%	-0.1	130/355	n=355
on grass	158-166	49%	+0.2	123/324	n=324
at this venue	45-55	45%	-0.3	76/100	n=100
under this head coach	83-79	51%	+0.8	162/162	n=162
in the last 5 seasons	51-45	53%	+0.6	96/96	n=96

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line · x/n = games under the current head coach

SF — form & streaks

Last 16 games: +1.0 pts vs their number per game	n=16
All 434 graded games: -0.0 pts vs their number per game	n=434

SF — combinations

75 lean SF · 277 lean against

Read this first. 385 combinations shown. The best one here is 61%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 80% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Now	Sample
as a favorite + in the last 5 seasons	44-33	57%from 51%	+1.9	77/77	n=77
as a favorite + in October	31-25	55%from 51%	+1.4	26/56	n=56
+ outdoors	27-21	56%from 55%	+1.3	21/48	n=48
+ on grass	25-20	56%from 56%	+1.5	19/45	n=45
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-7	53%from 56%	-0.4	15/15	n=15
+ under this head coach	10-11	48%from 56%	-0.6	21/21	n=21
+ at this venue	8-9	47%from 56%	-1.7	15/17	n=17
+ on grass	26-22	54%from 55%	+1.5	21/48	n=48
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-6	54%from 54%	+0.2	13/13	n=13
+ at this venue	8-9	47%from 54%	-1.7	15/17	n=17
+ under this head coach	9-12	43%from 54%	-0.7	21/21	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-8	53%from 55%	-0.1	17/17	n=17
+ at this venue	8-9	47%from 55%	-1.7	15/17	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-5	50%from 47%	-0.8	10/10	n=10
+ under this head coach	7-8	47%from 47%	-0.8	15/15	n=15
+ under this head coach	11-15	42%from 55%	-0.9	26/26	n=26
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-8	53%from 42%	-0.1	17/17	n=17
outdoors + in the last 5 seasons	43-35	55%from 49%	+0.6	78/78	n=78
under this head coach + in the last 5 seasons	51-45	53%from 51%	+0.6	96/96	n=96
outdoors + under this head coach	69-61	53%from 49%	+1.1	130/130	n=130
+ in the last 5 seasons	43-35	55%from 53%	+0.6	78/78	n=78
as a favorite + outdoors	101-91	53%from 51%	+1.5	87/192	n=192
+ in the last 5 seasons	40-26	61%from 53%	+2.2	66/66	n=66
+ under this head coach	49-38	56%from 53%	+2.1	87/87	n=87
+ in the last 5 seasons	40-26	61%from 56%	+2.2	66/66	n=66
+ on grass	86-85	50%from 53%	+1.2	74/171	n=171
+ in the last 5 seasons	32-24	57%from 50%	+1.7	56/56	n=56
+ under this head coach	38-36	51%from 50%	+1.3	74/74	n=74
+ at this venue	30-37	45%from 50%	-0.8	57/67	n=67
+ at this venue	30-37	45%from 53%	-0.8	57/67	n=67
+ in the last 5 seasons	23-18	56%from 45%	+1.1	41/41	n=41
+ under this head coach	28-29	49%from 45%	+0.5	57/57	n=57

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it · “Now” = games played by this team as it exists today

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice, picks for profit, or any guarantee of outcome. A trend is a description of the past, not a prediction. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.