NE at JAXJAX -1.5o/u 45.5

ST Model JAX -4.8(+3.3 vs market)

Since first recorded JAX -1.5o/u 45.5unchanged · 49d ago · 2 books

Trends · player props · 2026 week 3

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds of them, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself. There is deliberately no single verdict here.

NE — the basics

455 graded games since 1999

on the road	127-93	58%	+3.3	9/220	n=220
vs JAX	6-5	55%	+5.1	0/11	n=11
as an underdog	70-54	56%	+3.6	7/124	n=124
spread 1-2.5	39-31	56%	+3.0	5/70	n=70
in the Sunday early window	125-91	58%	+3.0	12/216	n=216
in September	43-42	51%	+1.1	4/85	n=85
outdoors	232-176	57%	+2.8	20/408	n=408
on grass	103-88	54%	+1.2	6/191	n=191
under this head coach	14-7	67%	+5.3	21/21	n=21
in the last 5 seasons	43-44	49%	+1.3	21/87	n=87

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line · x/n = games under the current head coach

NE — form & streaks

Last 16 games: +5.3 pts vs their number per game	n=16
All 455 graded games: +2.8 pts vs their number per game	n=455
NE has failed to cover 2 straight	n=2

NE — combinations

128 lean NE · 30 lean against

Read this first. 186 combinations shown. The best one here is 83%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 88% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Now	Sample
on the road + under this head coach	7-2	78%from 58%	+7.2	9/9	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-2	78%from 78%	+7.2	9/9	n=9
vs JAX + in the Sunday early window	5-2	71%from 55%	+8.3	0/7	n=7
+ outdoors	5-2	71%from 71%	+8.3	0/7	n=7
under this head coach + in the last 5 seasons	14-7	67%from 67%	+5.3	21/21	n=21
on grass + under this head coach	4-2	67%from 54%	+3.7	6/6	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-2	67%from 67%	+3.7	6/6	n=6
outdoors + under this head coach	13-7	65%from 57%	+5.5	20/20	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-7	65%from 65%	+5.5	20/20	n=20
as an underdog + in the Sunday early window	35-21	63%from 56%	+4.9	4/56	n=56
+ on grass	18-12	60%from 63%	+5.2	2/30	n=30
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-5	44%from 60%	+2.5	2/9	n=9
+ outdoors	29-21	58%from 63%	+4.2	4/50	n=50
+ on grass	17-12	59%from 58%	+5.3	2/29	n=29
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-13	46%from 58%	+1.6	4/24	n=24
+ in September	7-6	54%from 63%	+4.2	2/13	n=13
+ on grass	4-3	57%from 54%	+10.6	1/7	n=7
+ outdoors	7-6	54%from 54%	+4.2	2/13	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-3	50%from 54%	-0.3	2/6	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-13	46%from 63%	+1.6	4/24	n=24
on the road + spread 1-2.5	25-16	61%from 58%	+4.8	2/41	n=41
+ in September	6-2	75%from 61%	+3.3	1/8	n=8
+ outdoors	6-2	75%from 75%	+3.3	1/8	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-3	63%from 61%	+4.3	2/8	n=8
+ outdoors	18-11	62%from 61%	+4.5	2/29	n=29
+ on grass	11-8	58%from 62%	+4.2	2/19	n=19
+ in the Sunday early window	11-7	61%from 61%	+3.7	2/18	n=18
+ in September	4-1	80%from 61%	+5.6	1/5	n=5
+ on grass	7-4	64%from 61%	+7.3	2/11	n=11
+ outdoors	10-6	63%from 61%	+4.4	2/16	n=16
+ on grass	13-10	57%from 61%	+3.5	2/23	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-1	80%from 57%	+9.5	2/5	n=5

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it · “Now” = games played by this team as it exists today

JAX — the basics

418 graded games since 1999

at home	96-113	46%	-0.3	10/209	n=209
vs NE	5-6	45%	-5.1	0/11	n=11
as a favorite	66-82	45%	-0.8	10/148	n=148
spread 1-2.5	37-47	44%	-1.4	7/84	n=84
in the Sunday early window	145-155	48%	-0.2	13/300	n=300
in September	43-44	49%	-1.6	4/87	n=87
outdoors	171-188	48%	-0.8	14/359	n=359
on grass	152-170	47%	-0.6	15/322	n=322
at this venue	90-108	45%	-0.5	10/198	n=198
under this head coach	12-6	67%	+6.1	18/18	n=18
in the last 5 seasons	46-41	53%	+0.2	18/87	n=87

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line · x/n = games under the current head coach

JAX — form & streaks

Last 16 games: +6.2 pts vs their number per game	n=16
All 418 graded games: -0.7 pts vs their number per game	n=418

JAX — combinations

131 lean JAX · 150 lean against

Read this first. 316 combinations shown. The best one here is 83%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 80% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Now	Sample
on grass + under this head coach	11-4	73%from 47%	+7.7	15/15	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-4	73%from 73%	+7.7	15/15	n=15
outdoors + under this head coach	10-4	71%from 48%	+8.3	14/14	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-4	71%from 71%	+8.3	14/14	n=14
at home + under this head coach	7-3	70%from 46%	+7.5	10/10	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-3	70%from 70%	+7.5	10/10	n=10
as a favorite + under this head coach	7-3	70%from 45%	+5.8	10/10	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-3	70%from 70%	+5.8	10/10	n=10
at this venue + under this head coach	7-3	70%from 45%	+7.5	10/10	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-3	70%from 70%	+7.5	10/10	n=10
under this head coach + in the last 5 seasons	12-6	67%from 67%	+6.1	18/18	n=18
spread 1-2.5 + in September	10-5	67%from 44%	+0.6	1/15	n=15
+ outdoors	10-5	67%from 67%	+0.6	1/15	n=15
+ at this venue	7-4	64%from 67%	0.0	1/11	n=11
+ on grass	8-5	62%from 67%	-0.1	1/13	n=13
+ at this venue	7-4	64%from 67%	0.0	1/11	n=11
+ on grass	8-5	62%from 67%	-0.1	1/13	n=13
+ at this venue	7-4	64%from 62%	0.0	1/11	n=11
in the Sunday early window + under this head coach	8-5	62%from 48%	+6.0	13/13	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-5	62%from 62%	+6.0	13/13	n=13
on grass + in the last 5 seasons	33-28	54%from 47%	+1.3	15/61	n=61
at home + in the last 5 seasons	24-21	53%from 46%	+1.7	10/45	n=45
in the Sunday early window + in the last 5 seasons	35-32	52%from 48%	+0.4	13/67	n=67
outdoors + in the last 5 seasons	36-34	51%from 48%	+0.5	14/70	n=70
spread 1-2.5 + at this venue	19-18	51%from 44%	+0.5	4/37	n=37
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-3	63%from 51%	+3.6	4/8	n=8

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it · “Now” = games played by this team as it exists today

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice, picks for profit, or any guarantee of outcome. A trend is a description of the past, not a prediction. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.