LAC at BUFBUF -3o/u 48.5

ST Model BUF -6.6(+3.6 vs market)

Since first recorded BUF -2.50.5 → BUFo/u 48.5flat49d ago · 1 books · 1 moved off it

Trends · player props · 2026 week 3

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds of them, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself. There is deliberately no single verdict here.

LAC — the basics

423 graded games since 1999

on the road	118-94	56%	+1.1	19/212	n=212
vs BUF	7-5	58%	+6.8	0/12	n=12
as an underdog	102-80	56%	+1.3	10/182	n=182
spread 3	28-40	41%	-2.3	11/68	n=68
in the Sunday early window	60-46	57%	+1.2	10/106	n=106
in September	46-38	55%	+0.3	8/84	n=84
outdoors	171-168	50%	+0.8	13/339	n=339
on turf	64-56	53%	-0.1	23/120	n=120
at this venue	3-4	43%	+0.4	0/7	n=7
under this head coach	22-14	61%	+1.1	36/36	n=36
in the last 5 seasons	46-40	53%	-0.6	36/86	n=86

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line · x/n = games under the current head coach

LAC — form & streaks

Last 16 games: -1.4 pts vs their number per game	n=16
All 423 graded games: +0.5 pts vs their number per game	n=423
LAC has failed to cover 3 straight	n=3

LAC — combinations

86 lean LAC · 82 lean against

Read this first. 197 combinations shown. The best one here is 86%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 87% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Now	Sample
in September + under this head coach	6-2	75%from 55%	+3.6	8/8	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-2	75%from 75%	+3.6	8/8	n=8
on turf + under this head coach	15-8	65%from 53%	+1.1	23/23	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	15-8	65%from 65%	+1.1	23/23	n=23
in September + in the last 5 seasons	11-6	65%from 55%	+0.2	8/17	n=17
as an underdog + in the Sunday early window	40-23	63%from 56%	+2.9	3/63	n=63
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-2	75%from 63%	+5.1	3/8	n=8
+ on turf	16-9	64%from 63%	+4.9	1/25	n=25
+ in September	8-5	62%from 63%	+2.5	1/13	n=13
+ outdoors	6-5	55%from 62%	+1.5	1/11	n=11
+ outdoors	31-22	58%from 63%	+2.0	2/53	n=53
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-2	67%from 58%	+2.8	2/6	n=6
+ on turf	8-8	50%from 58%	+3.5	0/16	n=16
under this head coach + in the last 5 seasons	22-14	61%from 61%	+1.1	36/36	n=36
on the road + as an underdog	74-49	60%from 56%	+1.6	6/123	n=123
+ in the Sunday early window	40-23	63%from 60%	+2.9	3/63	n=63
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-2	75%from 63%	+5.1	3/8	n=8
+ on turf	16-9	64%from 63%	+4.9	1/25	n=25
+ in September	8-5	62%from 63%	+2.5	1/13	n=13
+ outdoors	31-22	58%from 63%	+2.0	2/53	n=53
+ on turf	25-17	60%from 60%	+3.0	2/42	n=42
+ outdoors	60-44	58%from 60%	+1.1	5/104	n=104
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-6	57%from 58%	+0.3	5/14	n=14
+ on turf	14-14	50%from 58%	+1.1	1/28	n=28
+ under this head coach	2-3	40%from 58%	-1.3	5/5	n=5
+ in September	13-10	57%from 60%	+0.7	1/23	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-1	80%from 57%	+3.6	1/5	n=5
+ outdoors	10-9	53%from 57%	+0.1	1/19	n=19
+ on turf	2-5	29%from 57%	-3.9	0/7	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-8	56%from 60%	-0.9	6/18	n=18
+ spread 3	9-9	50%from 60%	-1.9	1/18	n=18
+ in the Sunday early window	7-7	50%from 50%	+0.1	1/14	n=14
+ outdoors	7-8	47%from 50%	-0.5	1/15	n=15
+ under this head coach	3-3	50%from 60%	+2.0	6/6	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-3	50%from 50%	+2.0	6/6	n=6

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it · “Now” = games played by this team as it exists today

BUF — the basics

423 graded games since 1999

at home	109-105	51%	+0.9	81/214	n=214
vs LAC	5-7	42%	-6.8	4/12	n=12
as a favorite	107-96	53%	+1.8	104/203	n=203
spread 3	31-29	52%	-0.2	13/60	n=60
off a bye	23-16	59%	+4.6	16/39	n=39
in the Sunday early window	148-139	52%	+0.3	88/287	n=287
in September	50-38	57%	+3.0	31/88	n=88
outdoors	196-182	52%	+0.6	138/378	n=378
on turf	155-146	52%	+1.1	117/301	n=301
at this venue	106-100	51%	+1.0	79/206	n=206
under this head coach	85-73	54%	+2.3	158/158	n=158
in the last 5 seasons	47-45	51%	+2.8	92/92	n=92

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line · x/n = games under the current head coach

BUF — form & streaks

Last 16 games: -0.0 pts vs their number per game	n=16
All 423 graded games: +0.5 pts vs their number per game	n=423

BUF — combinations

326 lean BUF · 87 lean against

Read this first. 451 combinations shown. The best one here is 80%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 83% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Now	Sample
spread 3 + off a bye	4-1	80%from 52%	+5.2	3/5	n=5
+ outdoors	4-1	80%from 80%	+5.2	3/5	n=5
off a bye + outdoors	21-12	64%from 59%	+4.5	16/33	n=33
+ on turf	14-11	56%from 64%	+3.9	13/25	n=25
+ at this venue	12-10	55%from 56%	+3.9	12/22	n=22
+ under this head coach	5-8	38%from 56%	+2.1	13/13	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-5	38%from 56%	+7.3	8/8	n=8
+ at this venue	12-10	55%from 64%	+3.9	12/22	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-4	43%from 55%	+8.9	7/7	n=7
+ under this head coach	5-7	42%from 55%	+2.6	12/12	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-5	55%from 64%	+9.4	11/11	n=11
+ under this head coach	8-8	50%from 64%	+4.5	16/16	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-5	55%from 50%	+9.4	11/11	n=11
in September + under this head coach	19-12	61%from 57%	+5.6	31/31	n=31
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-7	59%from 61%	+9.1	17/17	n=17
as a favorite + off a bye	12-8	60%from 53%	+8.4	11/20	n=20
+ outdoors	10-7	59%from 60%	+7.4	11/17	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-4	56%from 59%	+11.4	9/9	n=9
+ under this head coach	6-5	55%from 59%	+9.2	11/11	n=11
+ on turf	7-7	50%from 59%	+5.9	9/14	n=14
+ at this venue	7-7	50%from 59%	+5.9	9/14	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-4	56%from 60%	+11.4	9/9	n=9
+ in the Sunday early window	6-5	55%from 60%	+3.8	5/11	n=11
+ outdoors	6-5	55%from 55%	+3.8	5/11	n=11
+ on turf	4-5	44%from 55%	+1.6	4/9	n=9
+ at this venue	4-5	44%from 55%	+1.6	4/9	n=9
+ under this head coach	2-3	40%from 55%	+3.4	5/5	n=5
+ under this head coach	6-5	55%from 60%	+9.2	11/11	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-4	56%from 55%	+11.4	9/9	n=9
+ on turf	9-8	53%from 60%	+7.4	9/17	n=17
+ at this venue	7-7	50%from 53%	+5.9	9/14	n=14
+ under this head coach	4-5	44%from 53%	+6.8	9/9	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-4	43%from 53%	+8.9	7/7	n=7
+ at this venue	7-7	50%from 60%	+5.9	9/14	n=14
+ under this head coach	4-5	44%from 50%	+6.8	9/9	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-4	43%from 50%	+8.9	7/7	n=7

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it · “Now” = games played by this team as it exists today

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice, picks for profit, or any guarantee of outcome. A trend is a description of the past, not a prediction. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.