KC at MIAKC -7.25o/u 44.5

ST Model KC -1.3(+6 vs market)

Since first recorded KC -7o/u 44.5unchanged · 49d ago · 2 books · 1 moved off it

Trends · player props · 2026 week 3

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds of them, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself. There is deliberately no single verdict here.

KC — the basics

441 graded games since 1999

on the road	115-101	53%	+0.5	112/216	n=216
vs MIA	6-4	60%	+4.0	5/10	n=10
as a favorite	131-145	47%	+0.9	189/276	n=276
spread 7-9.5	38-45	46%	+1.2	43/83	n=83
in the Sunday early window	101-107	49%	+0.5	79/208	n=208
in September	49-37	57%	+2.8	44/86	n=86
outdoors	202-193	51%	+1.0	203/395	n=395
on grass	181-168	52%	+1.5	173/349	n=349
at this venue	3-2	60%	+8.0	3/5	n=5
under this head coach	122-112	52%	+1.8	234/234	n=234
in the last 5 seasons	44-52	46%	-0.3	96/96	n=96

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line · x/n = games under the current head coach

KC — form & streaks

Last 16 games: -0.5 pts vs their number per game	n=16
All 441 graded games: +0.9 pts vs their number per game	n=441

KC — combinations

103 lean KC · 119 lean against

Read this first. 247 combinations shown. The best one here is 90%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 83% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Now	Sample
vs MIA + under this head coach	4-1	80%from 60%	+9.8	5/5	n=5
vs MIA + as a favorite	4-2	67%from 60%	0.0	4/6	n=6
+ outdoors	4-2	67%from 67%	0.0	4/6	n=6
+ on grass	4-2	67%from 67%	0.0	4/6	n=6
+ on grass	4-2	67%from 67%	0.0	4/6	n=6
on the road + in September	31-16	66%from 53%	+4.0	24/47	n=47
+ on grass	24-6	80%from 66%	+7.6	14/30	n=30
+ under this head coach	12-2	86%from 80%	+10.9	14/14	n=14
+ outdoors	26-8	76%from 66%	+6.6	16/34	n=34
+ under this head coach	13-3	81%from 76%	+9.8	16/16	n=16
+ on grass	21-5	81%from 76%	+7.7	12/26	n=26
+ under this head coach	16-8	67%from 66%	+6.5	24/24	n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-4	50%from 67%	+1.1	8/8	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-4	50%from 66%	+1.1	8/8	n=8
in September + on grass	41-26	61%from 57%	+4.3	32/67	n=67
+ under this head coach	21-11	66%from 61%	+6.9	32/32	n=32
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-6	40%from 66%	+3.2	10/10	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-6	40%from 61%	+3.2	10/10	n=10
in September + outdoors	44-29	60%from 57%	+3.8	36/73	n=73
+ under this head coach	23-13	64%from 60%	+6.1	36/36	n=36
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-8	38%from 64%	+1.1	13/13	n=13
+ on grass	38-25	60%from 60%	+4.1	30/63	n=63
+ under this head coach	19-11	63%from 60%	+6.6	30/30	n=30
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-6	33%from 60%	+1.7	9/9	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-8	38%from 60%	+1.1	13/13	n=13

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it · “Now” = games played by this team as it exists today

MIA — the basics

419 graded games since 1999

at home	103-106	49%	-0.1	0/209	n=209
vs KC	4-6	40%	-4.0	0/10	n=10
as an underdog	121-121	50%	+0.2	0/242	n=242
spread 7-9.5	29-27	52%	+0.8	0/56	n=56
in the Sunday early window	134-137	49%	-0.2	0/271	n=271
in September	41-46	47%	-1.6	0/87	n=87
outdoors	188-191	50%	-0.3	0/379	n=379
on grass	148-156	49%	-0.1	0/304	n=304
at this venue	102-104	50%	-0.0	0/206	n=206
in the last 5 seasons	44-42	51%	-0.8	0/86	n=86

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line · x/n = games under the current head coach

MIA — form & streaks

Last 16 games: -0.0 pts vs their number per game	n=16
All 419 graded games: -0.2 pts vs their number per game	n=419

MIA — combinations

139 lean MIA · 73 lean against

Read this first. 232 combinations shown. The best one here is 100%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 80% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 5.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Now	Sample
spread 7-9.5 + in the last 5 seasons	10-2	83%from 52%	+12.1	0/12	n=12
vs KC + in the Sunday early window	4-3	57%from 40%	+1.1	0/7	n=7
+ outdoors	4-3	57%from 57%	+1.1	0/7	n=7
+ on grass	4-3	57%from 57%	+1.1	0/7	n=7
+ on grass	4-3	57%from 57%	+1.1	0/7	n=7
at home + in the last 5 seasons	24-19	56%from 49%	+1.7	0/43	n=43
at this venue + in the last 5 seasons	24-19	56%from 50%	+1.7	0/43	n=43
in September + in the last 5 seasons	10-8	56%from 47%	-2.5	0/18	n=18
spread 7-9.5 + in the Sunday early window	17-14	55%from 52%	+2.0	0/31	n=31
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-0	100%from 55%	+17.9	0/7	n=7
+ at this venue	12-7	63%from 55%	+2.3	0/19	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-0	100%from 63%	+14.6	0/5	n=5
+ on grass	14-10	58%from 55%	+2.8	0/24	n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-0	100%from 58%	+15.8	0/6	n=6
+ at this venue	12-7	63%from 58%	+2.3	0/19	n=19
+ outdoors	16-12	57%from 55%	+1.8	0/28	n=28
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-0	100%from 57%	+15.8	0/6	n=6
+ at this venue	12-7	63%from 57%	+2.3	0/19	n=19
+ on grass	14-10	58%from 57%	+2.8	0/24	n=24
at home + spread 7-9.5	14-12	54%from 49%	+1.6	0/26	n=26
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-2	75%from 54%	+9.7	0/8	n=8
+ in the Sunday early window	12-7	63%from 54%	+2.3	0/19	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-0	100%from 63%	+14.6	0/5	n=5
+ outdoors	12-7	63%from 63%	+2.3	0/19	n=19
+ on grass	12-7	63%from 63%	+2.3	0/19	n=19
+ at this venue	12-7	63%from 63%	+2.3	0/19	n=19
+ outdoors	14-12	54%from 54%	+1.6	0/26	n=26
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-2	75%from 54%	+9.7	0/8	n=8
+ on grass	14-12	54%from 54%	+1.6	0/26	n=26
+ at this venue	14-12	54%from 54%	+1.6	0/26	n=26
+ on grass	14-12	54%from 54%	+1.6	0/26	n=26
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-2	75%from 54%	+9.7	0/8	n=8
+ at this venue	14-12	54%from 54%	+1.6	0/26	n=26
+ at this venue	14-12	54%from 54%	+1.6	0/26	n=26
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-2	75%from 54%	+9.7	0/8	n=8

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it · “Now” = games played by this team as it exists today

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice, picks for profit, or any guarantee of outcome. A trend is a description of the past, not a prediction. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.