DEN at KCKC -3o/u 42.5

ST Model KC -2.8(-0.2 vs market)

Since first recorded KC -2.50.5 → KCo/u 42.5flat49d ago · 9 books · 4 moved off it

Trends · player props · 2026 week 1

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds of them, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself. There is deliberately no single verdict here.

DEN — the basics

427 graded games since 1999

on the road	100-111	47%	-1.3	25/211	n=211
vs KC	26-25	51%	+0.5	6/51	n=51
as an underdog	91-82	53%	-0.1	24/173	n=173
spread 3	33-33	50%	-1.3	6/66	n=66
in a division game	73-80	48%	-0.7	18/153	n=153
on Monday night	15-19	44%	-2.1	3/34	n=34
in September	43-40	52%	+2.2	11/83	n=83
outdoors	185-197	48%	-0.5	42/382	n=382
on grass	167-176	49%	-0.1	38/343	n=343
at this venue	12-13	48%	-0.9	3/25	n=25
under this head coach	27-26	51%	+1.4	53/53	n=53
in the last 5 seasons	42-45	48%	+0.2	53/87	n=87

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line · x/n = games under the current head coach

DEN — form & streaks

Last 16 games: +1.0 pts vs their number per game	n=16
All 427 graded games: -0.6 pts vs their number per game	n=427
DEN has covered 3 straight	n=3

DEN — combinations

198 lean DEN · 144 lean against

Read this first. 372 combinations shown. The best one here is 83%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 86% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Now	Sample
on Monday night + in the last 5 seasons	4-1	80%from 44%	+4.6	3/5	n=5
vs KC + in the last 5 seasons	7-3	70%from 51%	+7.0	6/10	n=10
vs KC + under this head coach	4-2	67%from 51%	+9.1	6/6	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-2	67%from 67%	+9.1	6/6	n=6
vs KC + as an underdog	15-9	63%from 51%	+2.4	4/24	n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-2	75%from 63%	+6.2	4/8	n=8
+ on grass	14-8	64%from 63%	+2.8	4/22	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-2	75%from 64%	+6.2	4/8	n=8
+ at this venue	9-5	64%from 64%	+3.0	2/14	n=14
+ in a division game	15-9	63%from 63%	+2.4	4/24	n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-2	75%from 63%	+6.2	4/8	n=8
+ on grass	14-8	64%from 63%	+2.8	4/22	n=22
+ outdoors	15-9	63%from 63%	+2.4	4/24	n=24
+ at this venue	10-6	63%from 63%	+2.5	2/16	n=16
+ outdoors	15-9	63%from 63%	+2.4	4/24	n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-2	75%from 63%	+6.2	4/8	n=8
+ on grass	14-8	64%from 63%	+2.8	4/22	n=22
+ at this venue	10-6	63%from 63%	+2.5	2/16	n=16
+ at this venue	10-6	63%from 63%	+2.5	2/16	n=16
as an underdog + at this venue	10-6	63%from 53%	+2.5	2/16	n=16
as an underdog + in September	18-12	60%from 53%	+2.0	6/30	n=30
+ outdoors	17-9	65%from 60%	+2.7	5/26	n=26
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-2	67%from 65%	-2.0	5/6	n=6
+ on grass	13-8	62%from 65%	+1.8	3/21	n=21
+ under this head coach	3-2	60%from 65%	-2.8	5/5	n=5
+ on grass	13-8	62%from 60%	+1.8	3/21	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-3	57%from 60%	-1.8	6/7	n=7
+ under this head coach	3-3	50%from 60%	-2.4	6/6	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-3	50%from 50%	-2.4	6/6	n=6

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it · “Now” = games played by this team as it exists today

KC — the basics

441 graded games since 1999

at home	109-116	48%	+1.2	122/225	n=225
vs DEN	25-26	49%	-0.5	26/51	n=51
as a favorite	131-145	47%	+0.9	189/276	n=276
spread 3	35-31	53%	+1.6	29/66	n=66
in a division game	79-78	50%	+0.7	77/157	n=157
on Monday night	17-11	61%	+1.5	17/28	n=28
in September	49-37	57%	+2.8	44/86	n=86
outdoors	202-193	51%	+1.0	203/395	n=395
on grass	181-168	52%	+1.5	173/349	n=349
at this venue	105-116	48%	+1.0	118/221	n=221
under this head coach	122-112	52%	+1.8	234/234	n=234
in the last 5 seasons	44-52	46%	-0.3	96/96	n=96

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line · x/n = games under the current head coach

KC — form & streaks

Last 16 games: -0.5 pts vs their number per game	n=16
All 441 graded games: +0.9 pts vs their number per game	n=441

KC — combinations

174 lean KC · 319 lean against

Read this first. 534 combinations shown. The best one here is 80%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 86% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Now	Sample
spread 3 + in the last 5 seasons	4-1	80%from 53%	+3.2	5/5	n=5
spread 3 + under this head coach	21-8	72%from 53%	+6.4	29/29	n=29
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-1	80%from 72%	+3.2	5/5	n=5
in a division game + on Monday night	7-3	70%from 50%	-1.4	5/10	n=10
+ outdoors	7-3	70%from 70%	-1.4	5/10	n=10
+ on grass	7-3	70%from 70%	-1.4	5/10	n=10
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 70%	-0.1	3/6	n=6
+ under this head coach	3-2	60%from 70%	-3.7	5/5	n=5
+ on grass	7-3	70%from 70%	-1.4	5/10	n=10
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 70%	-0.1	3/6	n=6
+ under this head coach	3-2	60%from 70%	-3.7	5/5	n=5
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 70%	-0.1	3/6	n=6
+ under this head coach	3-2	60%from 70%	-3.7	5/5	n=5
as a favorite + on Monday night	11-6	65%from 47%	+0.3	14/17	n=17
+ outdoors	11-6	65%from 65%	+0.3	14/17	n=17
+ on grass	9-6	60%from 65%	-0.5	12/15	n=15
+ under this head coach	8-6	57%from 65%	-0.6	14/14	n=14
+ at this venue	6-5	55%from 65%	-0.5	10/11	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-6	25%from 65%	-3.6	8/8	n=8
+ on grass	9-6	60%from 65%	-0.5	12/15	n=15
+ under this head coach	6-6	50%from 60%	-1.8	12/12	n=12
+ at this venue	5-5	50%from 60%	-1.4	9/10	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-6	25%from 60%	-3.6	8/8	n=8
+ under this head coach	8-6	57%from 65%	-0.6	14/14	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-6	25%from 57%	-3.6	8/8	n=8
+ at this venue	6-5	55%from 65%	-0.5	10/11	n=11
+ under this head coach	5-5	50%from 55%	-0.8	10/10	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-5	29%from 55%	-3.2	7/7	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-6	25%from 65%	-3.6	8/8	n=8

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it · “Now” = games played by this team as it exists today

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice, picks for profit, or any guarantee of outcome. A trend is a description of the past, not a prediction. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.