BUF at HOUBUF -1o/u 44.5

ST Model HOU -1.4(+2.4 vs market)

Since first recorded BUF -1o/u 44.5unchanged · 49d ago · 9 books

Trends · player props · 2026 week 1

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds of them, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself. There is deliberately no single verdict here.

BUF — the basics

423 graded games since 1999

on the road	108-101	52%	+0.1	77/209	n=209
vs HOU	5-7	42%	+0.4	5/12	n=12
as a favorite	107-96	53%	+1.8	104/203	n=203
spread 1-2.5	54-44	55%	+1.3	40/98	n=98
in the Sunday early window	148-139	52%	+0.3	88/287	n=287
in September	50-38	57%	+3.0	31/88	n=88
on turf	155-146	52%	+1.1	117/301	n=301
at this venue	2-5	29%	-0.9	4/7	n=7
under this head coach	85-73	54%	+2.3	158/158	n=158
in the last 5 seasons	47-45	51%	+2.8	92/92	n=92

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line · x/n = games under the current head coach

BUF — form & streaks

Last 16 games: -0.0 pts vs their number per game	n=16
All 423 graded games: +0.5 pts vs their number per game	n=423

BUF — combinations

126 lean BUF · 19 lean against

Read this first. 167 combinations shown. The best one here is 88%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 83% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Now	Sample
spread 1-2.5 + in the last 5 seasons	17-9	65%from 55%	+4.7	26/26	n=26
spread 1-2.5 + under this head coach	26-14	65%from 55%	+3.5	40/40	n=40
+ in the last 5 seasons	17-9	65%from 65%	+4.7	26/26	n=26
as a favorite + spread 1-2.5	31-19	62%from 53%	+2.7	18/50	n=50
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-2	80%from 62%	+6.7	10/10	n=10
+ under this head coach	14-4	78%from 62%	+5.7	18/18	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-2	80%from 78%	+6.7	10/10	n=10
+ in September	8-4	67%from 62%	+6.2	4/12	n=12
+ on turf	7-4	64%from 67%	+6.1	4/11	n=11
+ on turf	25-17	60%from 62%	+3.0	15/42	n=42
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-2	75%from 60%	+7.6	8/8	n=8
+ under this head coach	11-4	73%from 60%	+6.2	15/15	n=15
+ in the Sunday early window	18-14	56%from 62%	+2.3	7/32	n=32
+ in September	6-2	75%from 56%	+8.6	2/8	n=8
+ under this head coach	5-2	71%from 56%	+5.5	7/7	n=7
+ on turf	16-12	57%from 56%	+3.0	7/28	n=28
in September + under this head coach	19-12	61%from 57%	+5.6	31/31	n=31
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-7	59%from 61%	+9.1	17/17	n=17
vs HOU + as a favorite	3-2	60%from 42%	+3.8	2/5	n=5
+ on turf	3-2	60%from 60%	+3.8	2/5	n=5
spread 1-2.5 + in September	13-9	59%from 55%	+3.5	8/22	n=22
+ under this head coach	6-2	75%from 59%	+4.1	8/8	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 75%	+3.0	5/5	n=5
+ on turf	10-6	63%from 59%	+4.1	6/16	n=16
+ under this head coach	5-1	83%from 63%	+5.3	6/6	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 59%	+3.0	5/5	n=5

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it · “Now” = games played by this team as it exists today

HOU — the basics

393 graded games since 1999

at home	95-100	49%	-0.2	27/195	n=195
vs BUF	7-5	58%	-0.4	2/12	n=12
as an underdog	118-124	49%	+0.0	29/242	n=242
spread 1-2.5	38-37	51%	+0.1	19/75	n=75
in the Sunday early window	143-139	51%	+0.2	37/282	n=282
in September	35-44	44%	-1.4	10/79	n=79
on turf	74-86	46%	-1.4	42/160	n=160
at this venue	95-100	49%	-0.2	27/195	n=195
under this head coach	29-27	52%	+2.5	56/56	n=56
in the last 5 seasons	45-44	51%	+1.6	56/89	n=89

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line · x/n = games under the current head coach

HOU — form & streaks

Last 16 games: +6.2 pts vs their number per game	n=16
All 393 graded games: -0.2 pts vs their number per game	n=393

HOU — combinations

117 lean HOU · 58 lean against

Read this first. 237 combinations shown. The best one here is 71%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 80% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Now	Sample
at home + vs BUF	5-2	71%from 49%	+0.9	2/7	n=7
+ at this venue	5-2	71%from 71%	+0.9	2/7	n=7
+ in the Sunday early window	3-2	60%from 71%	-0.7	1/5	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	-0.7	1/5	n=5
vs BUF + at this venue	5-2	71%from 58%	+0.9	2/7	n=7
as an underdog + under this head coach	17-12	59%from 49%	+3.3	29/29	n=29
+ in the last 5 seasons	17-12	59%from 59%	+3.3	29/29	n=29
spread 1-2.5 + under this head coach	11-8	58%from 51%	+3.0	19/19	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-8	58%from 58%	+3.0	19/19	n=19
spread 1-2.5 + in the last 5 seasons	11-9	55%from 51%	+2.6	19/20	n=20
as an underdog + in the last 5 seasons	33-28	54%from 49%	+1.7	29/61	n=61
as an underdog + spread 1-2.5	23-20	53%from 49%	+3.2	10/43	n=43
+ under this head coach	6-4	60%from 53%	+4.5	10/10	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-4	60%from 60%	+4.5	10/10	n=10
+ in the Sunday early window	18-14	56%from 53%	+3.6	7/32	n=32
+ at this venue	10-7	59%from 56%	+5.1	4/17	n=17
+ under this head coach	4-3	57%from 56%	+1.7	7/7	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-3	57%from 56%	+1.7	7/7	n=7
+ on turf	7-6	54%from 56%	+2.2	5/13	n=13
+ in September	3-6	33%from 56%	-3.3	2/9	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-5	55%from 53%	+3.6	10/11	n=11
+ at this venue	12-11	52%from 53%	+5.4	5/23	n=23
+ under this head coach	3-2	60%from 52%	+7.8	5/5	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-3	50%from 52%	+5.5	5/6	n=6
+ on turf	9-10	47%from 53%	+1.3	8/19	n=19
+ under this head coach	5-3	63%from 47%	+4.9	8/8	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-4	56%from 47%	+3.7	8/9	n=9
+ at this venue	5-5	50%from 47%	+7.5	5/10	n=10
+ in September	3-7	30%from 53%	-5.6	2/10	n=10
+ at this venue	3-3	50%from 30%	+1.3	1/6	n=6
+ on turf	1-4	20%from 30%	-12.0	1/5	n=5

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it · “Now” = games played by this team as it exists today

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice, picks for profit, or any guarantee of outcome. A trend is a description of the past, not a prediction. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.