Pro Baseball Terminal — MLB projections, standings & analytics

Ryne Nelson

P · AZ

28 yrs

Pitcher

60-Day IL· elbow

Description

Position: P
Team: AZ
Type: Pitcher
Bats: Right
Throws: Right
Born: 1998-02-01
Age: 28
Country: USA
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 184 lb
Last active: 2026

Career Résumé

5 seasons

Seasons	5 2022–2026
Games	108
W-L	29-23
ERA	4.30
WHIP	1.23
IP	550
SO	432
SV	2

Pitching Projections

2026 · per ~700 BF

Stat	Proj	Range (p10–p90)	vs LY
SO	141	117–168	+1
BB	49	35–60	+2
HR	22	17–32	+1
Hits	161	139–175	+0
ER	78	60–96	0

Pitching

Regular season

Season	Tm	W	L	ERA	WHIP	G	GS	SV	IP	SO	BB	HR	ER	xERA	Brl%
2026	AZ	3	5	4.97	1.24	15	15	0	83.1	62	22	18	46	5.13	10.2%
2025	AZ	7	3	3.39	1.07	33	23	1	154.0	132	41	17	58	3.93	7.5%
2024	AZ	10	6	4.24	1.25	28	25	1	150.2	126	34	17	71	4.08	7.5%
2023	AZ	8	8	5.31	1.42	29	27	0	144.0	96	46	24	85	5.27	11.6%
2022	AZ	1	1	1.47	0.82	3	3	0	18.1	16	6	2	3	2.32	6.4%

Fielding

Regular season · OAA 2016+

Season	Pos	G	GS	Inn	PO	A	E	DP	FLD%	RF/9	OAA
2026	P	15	15	83.1	4	4	1	0	.889	0.86	—
2025	P	33	23	154.0	5	14	0	0	1.000	1.11	—
2024	P	28	25	150.2	8	8	1	0	.941	0.96	—
2023	P	29	27	144.0	5	12	0	2	1.000	1.06	—
2022	P	3	3	18.1	1	2	1	0	.750	1.47	—

Pitching game log

2026 · last 15

Date		Opp	Res	Dec	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	Pit
2026-06-15	vs	LAA	W	W	7.0	9	2	2	1	0	5	95
2026-06-10	@	MIA	L	L	4.0	8	7	7	2	1	2	82
2026-06-04	vs	LAD	W	ND	7.0	5	2	2	0	2	3	94
2026-05-30	@	SEA	L	L	5.1	7	5	4	4	0	3	99
2026-05-24	vs	COL	W	W	8.0	6	1	1	0	3	3	103
2026-05-19	vs	SF	W	ND	7.0	8	3	3	2	2	3	88
2026-05-13	@	TEX	L	ND	7.0	4	3	3	1	0	8	88
2026-05-08	vs	NYM	L	ND	6.2	2	1	1	1	1	7	95
2026-05-02	@	CHC	L	L	5.2	4	1	1	1	2	4	84
2026-04-26	vs	SD	W	ND	5.0	7	6	6	2	2	4	93
2026-04-19	vs	TOR	L	L	0.1	8	8	8	0	1	1	30
2026-04-13	@	BAL	L	ND	5.1	3	2	1	0	2	7	92
2026-04-08	@	NYM	W	W	5.2	5	1	1	0	0	5	86
2026-04-02	vs	ATL	L	L	4.2	3	7	2	2	3	3	80
2026-03-27	@	LAD	L	ND	4.2	2	4	4	2	3	4	83

2026 · vs 168

K/9

6.718

BB/9

2.475

HR/9

1.95

ERA

4.9725

WHIP

1.2456

xERA

5.1318

Brl%A

10.2%20

PlayerMedian (50th)percentile vs league

Career Highs

Stat	Best	Year
Wins	10	2024
SO	132	2025
SV	1	2025
ERA	1.47	2022
WHIP	0.82	2022

Comparable Players

2026 · stat-profile similarity

Bailey OberMIN30y
4.59 ERA · 46 K · 1.22 WHIP
91%
vs
Zebby MatthewsMIN26y
4.78 ERA · 34 K · 1.18 WHIP
90%
vs
Tomoyuki SuganoCOL36y
4.31 ERA · 46 K · 1.29 WHIP
86%
vs
Tanner BibeeCLE27y
4.03 ERA · 78 K · 1.18 WHIP
85%
vs
Jeffrey SpringsATH33y
5.55 ERA · 72 K · 1.35 WHIP
85%
vs

Career Arc

ERA by season · taller = better

Year over Year

pitching trajectory

Yr	Tm	W	ERA	WHIP	SO	IP
22	AZ	1	1.47	0.82	16	18
23	AZ	8▲	5.31▲	1.42▲	96▲	144▲
24	AZ	10▲	4.24▼	1.25▼	126▲	151▲
25	AZ	7▼	3.39▼	1.07▼	132▲	154▲
26	AZ	3▼	4.97▲	1.24▲	62▼	83▼

Career Milestones

chase to the next mark

Wins29

21 to 50

Strikeouts432

568 to 1,000

Saves2

98 to 100

Season

Batted Balls

2025 · Statcast

89.8

Avg EV

89.8

Max EV

Hard-hit%

Hit (1)Out (0)1 batted balls

Pitch Arsenal

2025 · Statcast

Pitch	Use	Velo	Spin
4-Seam	62%	95.6	2270
Slider	14%	86.6	2403
Curve	11%	80.0	2565
Cutter	10%	90.8	2207
Changeup	3%	87.0	1799

Plate Discipline

2025 · induced

27.8%

Chase

lg 28.5%

70.7%

Z-Swing

lg 67%

18.8%

Whiff

lg 24.5%

81.2%

Contact

lg 76%

52.3%

Zone

lg 48.5%

24.6%

CSW

lg 28%

2,519 pitches · green/red vs league avg

Statcast Trend

xERA by season · taller = better

Barrel% Against by season · taller = better

Per game	11.3
Ceiling (90th)	22.7
Floor (10th)	-3.1
Std dev	11.8
Boom rate	40%
Bust rate	20%
Profile	Volatile