Betting Edge

How to use this: The PBT Model simulates each game thousands of times (lineup vs. starter, park-adjusted, bullpen) into a projected score and run margin. MLB is high-variance and the closing line is sharp — this is nota claim to beat it. Each game shows the model's margin beside the run line (±1.5), the side it leans, and the best price on both sides with the book offering it — the edge that compounds is price, so take the number. Mid shows when books post alt run lines that open a middle. The earlier date tabs are a backtest — each shows how the model graded against the closing line that day (straight-up, run-line, and whether our win probabilities beat the market).