CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 9 · FBS · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Full Slate — FBS · Week 9 · 56 games
Navy @ Notre DameNotre Dame 97%
Model
Notre Dame -26.6 · mkt Notre Dame —
proj Navy 15.3 · Notre Dame 41.8
Total
proj 57.1
Northwestern @ OregonOregon 96%
Model
Oregon -24.5 · mkt Oregon —
proj Northwestern 15.7 · Oregon 40.2
Total
proj 55.9
UAB @ South FloridaSouth Florida 96%
Model
South Florida -24.3 · mkt South Florida —
proj UAB 18.7 · South Florida 43.0
Total
proj 61.7
Purdue @ Penn StatePenn State 95%
Model
Penn State -23.3 · mkt Penn State —
proj Purdue 17.2 · Penn State 40.4
Total
proj 57.6
UTEP @ North Dakota StateNorth Dakota State 93%
Model
North Dakota State -21.5 · mkt North Dakota State —
proj UTEP 17.2 · North Dakota State 38.7
Total
proj 55.8
Minnesota @ IndianaIndiana 93%
Model
Indiana -21.4 · mkt Indiana —
proj Minnesota 17.9 · Indiana 39.3
Total
proj 57.3
Florida Atlantic @ North TexasNorth Texas 93%
Model
North Texas -21.2 · mkt North Texas —
proj Florida Atlantic 17.3 · North Texas 38.5
Total
proj 55.8
Northern Illinois @ UNLVUNLV 93%
Model
UNLV -21.1 · mkt UNLV —
proj Northern Illinois 19.5 · UNLV 40.7
Total
proj 60.2
Florida @ GeorgiaGeorgia 91%
Model
Georgia -19.4 · mkt Georgia —
proj Florida 15.5 · Georgia 34.9
Total
proj 50.4
Oklahoma State @ Iowa StateIowa State 90%
Model
Iowa State -18.0 · mkt Iowa State —
proj Oklahoma State 16.2 · Iowa State 34.2
Total
proj 50.4
Mississippi State @ TexasTexas 90%
Model
Texas -17.9 · mkt Texas —
proj Mississippi State 17.8 · Texas 35.7
Total
proj 53.5
Kent State @ Sacramento StateSacramento State 85%
Model
Sacramento State -15.0 · mkt Sacramento State —
proj Kent State 20.5 · Sacramento State 35.5
Total
proj 56.0
Arizona @ Texas TechTexas Tech 85%
Model
Texas Tech -14.9 · mkt Texas Tech —
proj Arizona 20.4 · Texas Tech 35.4
Total
proj 55.8
Troy @ James MadisonJames Madison 85%
Model
James Madison -14.7 · mkt James Madison —
proj Troy 21.9 · James Madison 36.7
Total
proj 58.6
Temple @ East CarolinaEast Carolina 84%
Model
East Carolina -14.3 · mkt East Carolina —
proj Temple 20.5 · East Carolina 34.8
Total
proj 55.3
Sam Houston @ Missouri StateMissouri State 83%
Model
Missouri State -13.7 · mkt Missouri State —
proj Sam Houston 21.0 · Missouri State 34.7
Total
proj 55.6
Army @ MemphisMemphis 81%
Model
Memphis -12.7 · mkt Memphis —
proj Army 18.5 · Memphis 31.2
Total
proj 49.7
Stanford @ LouisvilleLouisville 81%
Model
Louisville -12.5 · mkt Louisville —
proj Stanford 20.1 · Louisville 32.6
Total
proj 52.8
Bowling Green @ Western MichiganWestern Michigan 81%
Model
Western Michigan -12.4 · mkt Western Michigan —
proj Bowling Green 19.5 · Western Michigan 31.9
Total
proj 51.4
California @ NC StateNC State 81%
Model
NC State -12.4 · mkt NC State —
proj California 23.6 · NC State 35.9
Total
proj 59.5
Boston College @ DukeDuke 80%
Model
Duke -12.1 · mkt Duke —
proj Boston College 20.6 · Duke 32.7
Total
proj 53.3
Delaware @ Western KentuckyWestern Kentucky 79%
Model
Western Kentucky -11.4 · mkt Western Kentucky —
proj Delaware 20.2 · Western Kentucky 31.7
Total
proj 51.9
Colorado State @ Utah StateUtah State 77%
Model
Utah State -10.5 · mkt Utah State —
proj Colorado State 22.3 · Utah State 32.8
Total
proj 55.2
Arizona State @ BYUBYU 77%
Model
BYU -10.5 · mkt BYU —
proj Arizona State 22.3 · BYU 32.8
Total
proj 55.2
Oregon State @ Fresno StateFresno State 75%
Model
Fresno State -9.6 · mkt Fresno State —
proj Oregon State 21.8 · Fresno State 31.5
Total
proj 53.3
South Carolina @ OklahomaOklahoma 74%
Model
Oklahoma -9.3 · mkt Oklahoma —
proj South Carolina 22.8 · Oklahoma 32.1
Total
proj 54.9
Marshall @ Old DominionOld Dominion 70%
Model
Old Dominion -7.3 · mkt Old Dominion —
proj Marshall 21.1 · Old Dominion 28.4
Total
proj 49.5
Auburn @ Ole MissOle Miss 69%
Model
Ole Miss -7.2 · mkt Ole Miss —
proj Auburn 25.0 · Ole Miss 32.2
Total
proj 57.2
App State @ Georgia SouthernGeorgia Southern 69%
Model
Georgia Southern -7.0 · mkt Georgia Southern —
proj App State 26.1 · Georgia Southern 33.1
Total
proj 59.2
Florida International @ LibertyLiberty 65%
Model
Liberty -5.5 · mkt Liberty —
proj Florida International 23.5 · Liberty 29.1
Total
proj 52.6
Washington State @ San Diego StateSan Diego State 64%
Model
San Diego State -5.0 · mkt San Diego State —
proj Washington State 23.9 · San Diego State 28.9
Total
proj 52.7
Texas State @ Boise StateBoise State 64%
Model
Boise State -5.0 · mkt Boise State —
proj Texas State 24.4 · Boise State 29.4
Total
proj 53.7
UConn @ Air ForceAir Force 58%
Model
Air Force -2.8 · mkt Air Force —
proj UConn 29.8 · Air Force 32.6
Total
proj 62.4
Clemson @ Florida StateFlorida State 57%
Model
Florida State -2.4 · mkt Florida State —
proj Clemson 26.6 · Florida State 29.0
Total
proj 55.7
Georgia Tech @ PittsburghPittsburgh 56%
Model
Pittsburgh -2.2 · mkt Pittsburgh —
proj Georgia Tech 26.6 · Pittsburgh 28.8
Total
proj 55.4
Missouri @ ArkansasArkansas 50%
Model
Arkansas 0.0 · mkt Arkansas —
proj Missouri 31.1 · Arkansas 31.1
Total
proj 62.3
Louisiana Tech @ South AlabamaLouisiana Tech 53%
Model
Louisiana Tech -1.0 · mkt Louisiana Tech —
proj Louisiana Tech 30.4 · South Alabama 29.4
Total
proj 59.8
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia StateCoastal Carolina 53%
Model
Coastal Carolina -1.1 · mkt Coastal Carolina —
proj Coastal Carolina 27.8 · Georgia State 26.7
Total
proj 54.5
Kennesaw State @ Middle TennesseeKennesaw State 57%
Model
Kennesaw State -2.7 · mkt Kennesaw State —
proj Kennesaw State 27.5 · Middle Tennessee 24.8
Total
proj 52.3
Virginia @ Wake ForestVirginia 57%
Model
Virginia -2.7 · mkt Virginia —
proj Virginia 30.1 · Wake Forest 27.4
Total
proj 57.4
Washington @ NebraskaWashington 63%
Model
Washington -4.5 · mkt Washington —
proj Washington 28.9 · Nebraska 24.4
Total
proj 53.3
Michigan @ RutgersMichigan 64%
Model
Michigan -5.1 · mkt Michigan —
proj Michigan 32.0 · Rutgers 26.9
Total
proj 58.9
Ohio State @ USCOhio State 64%
Model
Ohio State -5.1 · mkt Ohio State —
proj Ohio State 31.4 · USC 26.3
Total
proj 57.8
New Mexico @ San José StateNew Mexico 64%
Model
New Mexico -5.2 · mkt New Mexico —
proj New Mexico 30.1 · San José State 25.0
Total
proj 55.1
Illinois @ MarylandIllinois 70%
Model
Illinois -7.3 · mkt Illinois —
proj Illinois 31.8 · Maryland 24.5
Total
proj 56.3
Jacksonville State @ New Mexico StateJacksonville State 72%
Model
Jacksonville State -8.2 · mkt Jacksonville State —
proj Jacksonville State 32.3 · New Mexico State 24.1
Total
proj 56.5
Kansas State @ ColoradoKansas State 73%
Model
Kansas State -8.7 · mkt Kansas State —
proj Kansas State 31.6 · Colorado 23.0
Total
proj 54.6
Southern Miss @ UL MonroeSouthern Miss 78%
Model
Southern Miss -11.1 · mkt Southern Miss —
proj Southern Miss 35.4 · UL Monroe 24.3
Total
proj 59.6
Miami @ North CarolinaMiami 93%
Model
Miami -20.7 · mkt Miami —
proj Miami 37.1 · North Carolina 16.4
Total
proj 53.6
Tulane @ CharlotteTulane 94%
Model
Tulane -21.8 · mkt Tulane —
proj Tulane 38.1 · Charlotte 16.3
Total
proj 54.4
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.