CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 8 · FBS · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — FBS · Week 8 · 56 games
Massachusetts @ UConnUConn 97%
Model
UConn -26.0 · mkt UConn —
proj Massachusetts 15.7 · UConn 41.7
Total
proj 57.3
Pittsburgh @ MiamiMiami 90%
Model
Miami -17.8 · mkt Miami —
proj Pittsburgh 17.4 · Miami 35.2
Total
proj 52.6
Virginia Tech @ ClemsonClemson 87%
Model
Clemson -15.7 · mkt Clemson —
proj Virginia Tech 20.3 · Clemson 36.0
Total
proj 56.3
Boston College @ Georgia TechGeorgia Tech 85%
Model
Georgia Tech -14.4 · mkt Georgia Tech —
proj Boston College 17.7 · Georgia Tech 32.2
Total
proj 49.9
West Virginia @ TCUTCU 84%
Model
TCU -14.1 · mkt TCU —
proj West Virginia 19.6 · TCU 33.6
Total
proj 53.2
North Dakota State @ New MexicoNew Mexico 81%
Model
New Mexico -12.3 · mkt New Mexico —
proj North Dakota State 21.9 · New Mexico 34.3
Total
proj 56.2
South Alabama @ MarshallMarshall 80%
Model
Marshall -12.2 · mkt Marshall —
proj South Alabama 20.8 · Marshall 33.0
Total
proj 53.8
Eastern Michigan @ OhioOhio 77%
Model
Ohio -10.7 · mkt Ohio —
proj Eastern Michigan 23.0 · Ohio 33.7
Total
proj 56.8
Sacramento State @ Ball StateBall State 77%
Model
Ball State -10.7 · mkt Ball State —
proj Sacramento State 22.3 · Ball State 32.9
Total
proj 55.2
Utah State @ Texas StateTexas State 75%
Model
Texas State -9.7 · mkt Texas State —
proj Utah State 20.6 · Texas State 30.3
Total
proj 51.0
Middle Tennessee @ Florida InternationalFlorida International 75%
Model
Florida International -9.7 · mkt Florida International —
proj Middle Tennessee 22.7 · Florida International 32.4
Total
proj 55.1
Georgia State @ Arkansas StateArkansas State 74%
Model
Arkansas State -9.3 · mkt Arkansas State —
proj Georgia State 23.6 · Arkansas State 32.9
Total
proj 56.5
Syracuse @ North CarolinaNorth Carolina 71%
Model
North Carolina -7.7 · mkt North Carolina —
proj Syracuse 22.4 · North Carolina 30.1
Total
proj 52.5
Rice @ Florida AtlanticFlorida Atlantic 70%
Model
Florida Atlantic -7.3 · mkt Florida Atlantic —
proj Rice 20.8 · Florida Atlantic 28.1
Total
proj 48.9
Rutgers @ NorthwesternNorthwestern 68%
Model
Northwestern -6.7 · mkt Northwestern —
proj Rutgers 23.4 · Northwestern 30.1
Total
proj 53.5
Duke @ VirginiaVirginia 67%
Model
Virginia -6.4 · mkt Virginia —
proj Duke 23.2 · Virginia 29.6
Total
proj 52.8
Bowling Green @ BuffaloBuffalo 67%
Model
Buffalo -6.3 · mkt Buffalo —
proj Bowling Green 24.8 · Buffalo 31.1
Total
proj 55.9
Western Michigan @ ToledoToledo 66%
Model
Toledo -5.9 · mkt Toledo —
proj Western Michigan 22.3 · Toledo 28.2
Total
proj 50.5
Baylor @ KansasKansas 66%
Model
Kansas -5.9 · mkt Kansas —
proj Baylor 24.3 · Kansas 30.2
Total
proj 54.5
Boise State @ Washington StateWashington State 63%
Model
Washington State -4.8 · mkt Washington State —
proj Boise State 21.7 · Washington State 26.5
Total
proj 48.2
Louisiana @ Southern MissSouthern Miss 62%
Model
Southern Miss -4.3 · mkt Southern Miss —
proj Louisiana 24.2 · Southern Miss 28.5
Total
proj 52.7
Iowa State @ ArizonaArizona 62%
Model
Arizona -4.2 · mkt Arizona —
proj Iowa State 26.4 · Arizona 30.6
Total
proj 57.0
East Carolina @ MemphisMemphis 60%
Model
Memphis -3.6 · mkt Memphis —
proj East Carolina 25.7 · Memphis 29.2
Total
proj 54.9
Kansas State @ Arizona StateArizona State 58%
Model
Arizona State -2.9 · mkt Arizona State —
proj Kansas State 24.3 · Arizona State 27.2
Total
proj 51.5
Liberty @ Kennesaw StateKennesaw State 56%
Model
Kennesaw State -2.1 · mkt Kennesaw State —
proj Liberty 25.0 · Kennesaw State 27.1
Total
proj 52.1
Texas A&M @ AlabamaAlabama 53%
Model
Alabama -1.1 · mkt Alabama —
proj Texas A&M 25.1 · Alabama 26.2
Total
proj 51.2
San José State @ NevadaNevada 53%
Model
Nevada -1.1 · mkt Nevada —
proj San José State 25.9 · Nevada 27.0
Total
proj 52.9
Michigan State @ UCLAUCLA 53%
Model
UCLA -1.0 · mkt UCLA —
proj Michigan State 25.9 · UCLA 26.9
Total
proj 52.9
Missouri State @ DelawareDelaware 52%
Model
Delaware -0.7 · mkt Delaware —
proj Missouri State 25.3 · Delaware 25.9
Total
proj 51.2
Akron @ Kent StateKent State 50%
Model
Kent State -0.1 · mkt Kent State —
proj Akron 26.5 · Kent State 26.6
Total
proj 53.1
Ole Miss @ TexasOle Miss 52%
Model
Ole Miss -0.5 · mkt Ole Miss —
proj Ole Miss 26.2 · Texas 25.7
Total
proj 51.8
North Texas @ NavyNorth Texas 52%
Model
North Texas -0.7 · mkt North Texas —
proj North Texas 30.8 · Navy 30.1
Total
proj 61.0
Colorado @ Oklahoma StateColorado 53%
Model
Colorado -0.9 · mkt Colorado —
proj Colorado 27.6 · Oklahoma State 26.7
Total
proj 54.3
Old Dominion @ Louisiana TechOld Dominion 55%
Model
Old Dominion -1.9 · mkt Old Dominion —
proj Old Dominion 28.6 · Louisiana Tech 26.7
Total
proj 55.4
Miami (OH) @ Central MichiganMiami (OH) 56%
Model
Miami (OH) -2.0 · mkt Miami (OH) —
proj Miami (OH) 29.9 · Central Michigan 27.9
Total
proj 57.8
New Mexico State @ Sam HoustonNew Mexico State 57%
Model
New Mexico State -2.6 · mkt New Mexico State —
proj New Mexico State 28.5 · Sam Houston 25.9
Total
proj 54.4
Tennessee @ South CarolinaTennessee 67%
Model
Tennessee -6.2 · mkt Tennessee —
proj Tennessee 30.5 · South Carolina 24.3
Total
proj 54.8
Hawai'i @ Northern IllinoisHawai'i 68%
Model
Hawai'i -6.8 · mkt Hawai'i —
proj Hawai'i 32.6 · Northern Illinois 25.8
Total
proj 58.4
Air Force @ WyomingAir Force 69%
Model
Air Force -7.1 · mkt Air Force —
proj Air Force 32.0 · Wyoming 24.9
Total
proj 56.9
Oregon @ IllinoisOregon 73%
Model
Oregon -8.5 · mkt Oregon —
proj Oregon 31.0 · Illinois 22.5
Total
proj 53.6
NC State @ StanfordNC State 73%
Model
NC State -8.8 · mkt NC State —
proj NC State 31.0 · Stanford 22.1
Total
proj 53.1
San Diego State @ Colorado StateSan Diego State 73%
Model
San Diego State -8.8 · mkt San Diego State —
proj San Diego State 34.6 · Colorado State 25.7
Total
proj 60.3
Indiana @ MichiganIndiana 74%
Model
Indiana -9.3 · mkt Indiana —
proj Indiana 31.1 · Michigan 21.8
Total
proj 53.0
Oklahoma @ Mississippi StateOklahoma 75%
Model
Oklahoma -9.5 · mkt Oklahoma —
proj Oklahoma 32.4 · Mississippi State 22.9
Total
proj 55.4
Vanderbilt @ KentuckyVanderbilt 82%
Model
Vanderbilt -13.1 · mkt Vanderbilt —
proj Vanderbilt 30.1 · Kentucky 17.0
Total
proj 47.1
James Madison @ App StateJames Madison 89%
Model
James Madison -17.8 · mkt James Madison —
proj James Madison 34.0 · App State 16.2
Total
proj 50.2
Texas Tech @ CincinnatiTexas Tech 92%
Model
Texas Tech -20.0 · mkt Texas Tech —
proj Texas Tech 42.6 · Cincinnati 22.5
Total
proj 65.1
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.