CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 7 · FBS · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Notre Dame @ BYU6.4 pt gap
Model vs mktNotre Dame -4.1 · mkt Notre Dame ~-10.5
LeanBYU +10.5
Best priceBYU +10.5 -110best of 1
WinNotre Dame 61%
Ohio State @ Indiana5.5 pt gap
Model vs mktIndiana -5.5 · mkt Indiana ~0.0
LeanIndiana 0.0
Best priceIndiana +1.5 -114best of 2
WinIndiana 65%
Kansas @ Kansas State5.5 pt gap
Model vs mktKansas State -3.0 · mkt Kansas State ~-8.5
LeanKansas +8.5
Best priceKansas +8.5 -110best of 1
WinKansas State 58%
Alabama @ Tennessee1.2 pt gap
Model vs mktAlabama -0.3 · mkt Alabama ~-1.5
LeanTennessee +1.5
Best priceTennessee +1.5 -110best of 1
WinAlabama 51%
Auburn @ Georgia1.0 pt gap
Model vs mktGeorgia -15.5 · mkt Georgia ~-16.5
LeanAuburn +16.5
Best priceAuburn +16.5 -110best of 1
WinGeorgia 86%
Full Slate — FBS · Week 7 · 59 games
Notre Dame @ BYUNotre Dame 61%
Model
Notre Dame -4.1 · mkt Notre Dame ~-10.5
proj Notre Dame 28.2 · BYU 24.1
leans BYU +10.5
◆ Mid 0
BYU +10.5 -110DraftKings
Notre Dame -10.5 -110DraftKings
Ohio State @ IndianaIndiana 65%
Model
Indiana -5.5 · mkt Indiana ~0.0
proj Ohio State 29.5 · Indiana 34.9
leans Indiana 0.0
◆ Mid 3
Indiana +1.5 -114BetRivers
Ohio State +1.5 -120FanDuel
Kansas @ Kansas StateKansas State 58%
Model
Kansas State -3.0 · mkt Kansas State ~-8.5
proj Kansas 24.7 · Kansas State 27.7
leans Kansas +8.5
◆ Mid 0
Kansas State -8.5 -110DraftKings
Kansas +8.5 -110DraftKings
Alabama @ TennesseeAlabama 51%
Model
Alabama -0.3 · mkt Alabama ~-1.5
proj Alabama 28.4 · Tennessee 28.2
leans Tennessee +1.5
◆ Mid 0
Tennessee +1.5 -110DraftKings
Alabama -1.5 -110DraftKings
Auburn @ GeorgiaGeorgia 86%
Model
Georgia -15.5 · mkt Georgia ~-16.5
proj Auburn 19.0 · Georgia 34.5
leans Auburn +16.5
◆ Mid 0
Georgia -16.5 -110DraftKings
Auburn +16.5 -110DraftKings
Kent State @ South FloridaSouth Florida 99%
Model
South Florida -31.1 · mkt South Florida —
proj Kent State 13.1 · South Florida 44.2
Total
proj 57.3
Georgia State @ James MadisonJames Madison 96%
Model
James Madison -25.4 · mkt James Madison —
proj Georgia State 18.2 · James Madison 43.6
Total
proj 61.9
Nevada @ North Dakota StateNorth Dakota State 93%
Model
North Dakota State -21.0 · mkt North Dakota State —
proj Nevada 17.8 · North Dakota State 38.8
Total
proj 56.6
Nebraska @ OregonOregon 92%
Model
Oregon -19.5 · mkt Oregon —
proj Nebraska 16.9 · Oregon 36.5
Total
proj 53.4
Kentucky @ OklahomaOklahoma 89%
Model
Oklahoma -17.4 · mkt Oklahoma —
proj Kentucky 19.5 · Oklahoma 36.9
Total
proj 56.4
Florida Atlantic @ ArmyArmy 89%
Model
Army -17.2 · mkt Army —
proj Florida Atlantic 16.4 · Army 33.7
Total
proj 50.1
Massachusetts @ BuffaloBuffalo 88%
Model
Buffalo -16.5 · mkt Buffalo —
proj Massachusetts 20.5 · Buffalo 37.0
Total
proj 57.5
Mississippi State @ LSULSU 85%
Model
LSU -14.5 · mkt LSU —
proj Mississippi State 19.7 · LSU 34.2
Total
proj 53.9
Arizona State @ Texas TechTexas Tech 84%
Model
Texas Tech -14.0 · mkt Texas Tech —
proj Arizona State 20.9 · Texas Tech 34.9
Total
proj 55.8
Charlotte @ TempleTemple 84%
Model
Temple -13.9 · mkt Temple —
proj Charlotte 18.7 · Temple 32.6
Total
proj 51.2
Florida State @ MiamiMiami 83%
Model
Miami -13.7 · mkt Miami —
proj Florida State 20.9 · Miami 34.6
Total
proj 55.6
Colorado State @ Texas StateTexas State 82%
Model
Texas State -13.1 · mkt Texas State —
proj Colorado State 21.9 · Texas State 35.0
Total
proj 56.9
Akron @ Miami (OH)Miami (OH) 82%
Model
Miami (OH) -13.0 · mkt Miami (OH) —
proj Akron 19.2 · Miami (OH) 32.3
Total
proj 51.5
Arkansas @ VanderbiltVanderbilt 81%
Model
Vanderbilt -12.6 · mkt Vanderbilt —
proj Arkansas 21.2 · Vanderbilt 33.8
Total
proj 54.9
Missouri @ Ole MissOle Miss 80%
Model
Ole Miss -12.1 · mkt Ole Miss —
proj Missouri 23.9 · Ole Miss 36.1
Total
proj 60.0
Oklahoma State @ HoustonHouston 78%
Model
Houston -11.1 · mkt Houston —
proj Oklahoma State 21.8 · Houston 32.8
Total
proj 54.6
Georgia Southern @ Old DominionOld Dominion 78%
Model
Old Dominion -10.9 · mkt Old Dominion —
proj Georgia Southern 24.7 · Old Dominion 35.5
Total
proj 60.2
North Carolina @ DukeDuke 76%
Model
Duke -9.9 · mkt Duke —
proj North Carolina 24.5 · Duke 34.4
Total
proj 59.0
Ball State @ Bowling GreenBowling Green 73%
Model
Bowling Green -8.8 · mkt Bowling Green —
proj Ball State 21.4 · Bowling Green 30.1
Total
proj 51.5
Fresno State @ San Diego StateSan Diego State 70%
Model
San Diego State -7.4 · mkt San Diego State —
proj Fresno State 22.9 · San Diego State 30.3
Total
proj 53.2
Northern Illinois @ WyomingWyoming 69%
Model
Wyoming -7.1 · mkt Wyoming —
proj Northern Illinois 23.7 · Wyoming 30.8
Total
proj 54.5
Florida International @ Jacksonville StateJacksonville State 69%
Model
Jacksonville State -7.1 · mkt Jacksonville State —
proj Florida International 22.8 · Jacksonville State 29.9
Total
proj 52.7
Ohio @ Sacramento StateSacramento State 66%
Model
Sacramento State -5.8 · mkt Sacramento State —
proj Ohio 24.2 · Sacramento State 30.1
Total
proj 54.3
New Mexico @ Hawai'iHawai'i 65%
Model
Hawai'i -5.5 · mkt Hawai'i —
proj New Mexico 23.8 · Hawai'i 29.2
Total
proj 53.0
UNLV @ Air ForceAir Force 61%
Model
Air Force -4.1 · mkt Air Force —
proj UNLV 29.4 · Air Force 33.5
Total
proj 62.9
Delaware @ Middle TennesseeMiddle Tennessee 60%
Model
Middle Tennessee -3.7 · mkt Middle Tennessee —
proj Delaware 25.4 · Middle Tennessee 29.1
Total
proj 54.5
Memphis @ TulaneTulane 57%
Model
Tulane -2.4 · mkt Tulane —
proj Memphis 26.3 · Tulane 28.7
Total
proj 55.1
Arkansas State @ Southern MissSouthern Miss 55%
Model
Southern Miss -1.9 · mkt Southern Miss —
proj Arkansas State 25.7 · Southern Miss 27.6
Total
proj 53.3
App State @ Coastal CarolinaCoastal Carolina 55%
Model
Coastal Carolina -1.7 · mkt Coastal Carolina —
proj App State 27.7 · Coastal Carolina 29.4
Total
proj 57.1
Penn State @ MichiganMichigan 52%
Model
Michigan -0.9 · mkt Michigan —
proj Penn State 26.8 · Michigan 27.6
Total
proj 54.4
Troy @ LouisianaLouisiana 50%
Model
Louisiana -0.1 · mkt Louisiana —
proj Troy 26.9 · Louisiana 27.0
Total
proj 53.9
Western Michigan @ Central MichiganWestern Michigan 51%
Model
Western Michigan -0.3 · mkt Western Michigan —
proj Western Michigan 29.5 · Central Michigan 29.2
Total
proj 58.8
Rutgers @ MarylandRutgers 52%
Model
Rutgers -0.7 · mkt Rutgers —
proj Rutgers 26.0 · Maryland 25.3
Total
proj 51.2
Wake Forest @ CaliforniaWake Forest 54%
Model
Wake Forest -1.3 · mkt Wake Forest —
proj Wake Forest 27.7 · California 26.3
Total
proj 54.0
Cincinnati @ West VirginiaCincinnati 57%
Model
Cincinnati -2.5 · mkt Cincinnati —
proj Cincinnati 27.5 · West Virginia 25.0
Total
proj 52.4
Kennesaw State @ Missouri StateKennesaw State 58%
Model
Kennesaw State -2.7 · mkt Kennesaw State —
proj Kennesaw State 27.4 · Missouri State 24.6
Total
proj 52.0
San José State @ UTEPSan José State 58%
Model
San José State -3.0 · mkt San José State —
proj San José State 26.5 · UTEP 23.5
Total
proj 50.0
Northwestern @ Michigan StateNorthwestern 61%
Model
Northwestern -3.8 · mkt Northwestern —
proj Northwestern 27.4 · Michigan State 23.6
Total
proj 51.0
Pittsburgh @ Boston CollegePittsburgh 69%
Model
Pittsburgh -6.9 · mkt Pittsburgh —
proj Pittsburgh 32.3 · Boston College 25.4
Total
proj 57.7
Toledo @ Eastern MichiganToledo 74%
Model
Toledo -9.0 · mkt Toledo —
proj Toledo 35.4 · Eastern Michigan 26.4
Total
proj 61.8
Georgia Tech @ Virginia TechGeorgia Tech 74%
Model
Georgia Tech -9.1 · mkt Georgia Tech —
proj Georgia Tech 32.0 · Virginia Tech 23.0
Total
proj 55.0
Louisiana Tech @ UL MonroeLouisiana Tech 79%
Model
Louisiana Tech -11.3 · mkt Louisiana Tech —
proj Louisiana Tech 34.0 · UL Monroe 22.7
Total
proj 56.7
Louisville @ SyracuseLouisville 84%
Model
Louisville -14.0 · mkt Louisville —
proj Louisville 36.8 · Syracuse 22.9
Total
proj 59.7
East Carolina @ UABEast Carolina 85%
Model
East Carolina -14.6 · mkt East Carolina —
proj East Carolina 35.6 · UAB 21.0
Total
proj 56.7
Washington @ PurdueWashington 86%
Model
Washington -15.2 · mkt Washington —
proj Washington 37.8 · Purdue 22.6
Total
proj 60.4
Washington State @ Oregon StateWashington State 87%
Model
Washington State -15.8 · mkt Washington State —
proj Washington State 31.4 · Oregon State 15.7
Total
proj 47.1
Western Kentucky @ Sam HoustonWestern Kentucky 92%
Model
Western Kentucky -20.3 · mkt Western Kentucky —
proj Western Kentucky 38.4 · Sam Houston 18.1
Total
proj 56.5
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.