CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 6 · FBS · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Texas @ Oklahoma9.9 pt gap
Model vs mktOklahoma -3.7 · mkt Oklahoma ~+6.2
LeanOklahoma +6.2
Best priceOklahoma +6.5 -110best of 4
WinOklahoma 60%
USC @ Penn State3.6 pt gap
Model vs mktPenn State -3.6 · mkt Penn State ~0.0
LeanPenn State 0.0
Best pricePenn State 0 -110best of 1
WinPenn State 60%
Georgia @ Alabama2.7 pt gap
Model vs mktGeorgia -5.4 · mkt Georgia ~-2.7
LeanGeorgia -2.7
Best priceGeorgia -2.5 -122best of 4
WinGeorgia 65%
Full Slate — FBS · Week 6 · 58 games
Texas @ OklahomaOklahoma 60%
Model
Oklahoma -3.7 · mkt Oklahoma ~+6.2
proj Texas 24.9 · Oklahoma 28.6
leans Oklahoma +6.2
◆ Mid 0.5
Oklahoma +6.5 -110FanDuel
Texas -6 -110DraftKings
USC @ Penn StatePenn State 60%
Model
Penn State -3.6 · mkt Penn State ~0.0
proj USC 25.1 · Penn State 28.7
leans Penn State 0.0
◆ Mid 0
Penn State 0 -110DraftKings
USC 0 -110DraftKings
Georgia @ AlabamaGeorgia 65%
Model
Georgia -5.4 · mkt Georgia ~-2.7
proj Georgia 30.8 · Alabama 25.4
leans Georgia -2.7
◆ Mid 0.5
Alabama +3 -110DraftKings
Georgia -2.5 -122FanDuel
Maryland @ Ohio StateOhio State 99%
Model
Ohio State -34.1 · mkt Ohio State —
proj Maryland 11.7 · Ohio State 45.8
Total
proj 57.5
Charlotte @ North TexasNorth Texas 99%
Model
North Texas -33.0 · mkt North Texas —
proj Charlotte 12.6 · North Texas 45.6
Total
proj 58.3
Stanford @ Notre DameNotre Dame 99%
Model
Notre Dame -32.9 · mkt Notre Dame —
proj Stanford 12.9 · Notre Dame 45.8
Total
proj 58.6
Ball State @ NorthwesternNorthwestern 95%
Model
Northwestern -23.9 · mkt Northwestern —
proj Ball State 13.8 · Northwestern 37.7
Total
proj 51.5
UAB @ MemphisMemphis 92%
Model
Memphis -19.8 · mkt Memphis —
proj UAB 18.4 · Memphis 38.2
Total
proj 56.6
Kent State @ Western MichiganWestern Michigan 92%
Model
Western Michigan -19.7 · mkt Western Michigan —
proj Kent State 18.1 · Western Michigan 37.8
Total
proj 55.8
Buffalo @ ToledoToledo 91%
Model
Toledo -18.7 · mkt Toledo —
proj Buffalo 17.9 · Toledo 36.5
Total
proj 54.4
Rice @ East CarolinaEast Carolina 90%
Model
East Carolina -18.6 · mkt East Carolina —
proj Rice 16.4 · East Carolina 35.0
Total
proj 51.4
Sam Houston @ LibertyLiberty 88%
Model
Liberty -16.9 · mkt Liberty —
proj Sam Houston 18.1 · Liberty 35.0
Total
proj 53.2
Syracuse @ VirginiaVirginia 87%
Model
Virginia -15.9 · mkt Virginia —
proj Syracuse 20.5 · Virginia 36.4
Total
proj 56.9
Sacramento State @ Bowling GreenBowling Green 85%
Model
Bowling Green -14.8 · mkt Bowling Green —
proj Sacramento State 20.6 · Bowling Green 35.5
Total
proj 56.1
Missouri State @ Western KentuckyWestern Kentucky 84%
Model
Western Kentucky -14.2 · mkt Western Kentucky —
proj Missouri State 20.3 · Western Kentucky 34.5
Total
proj 54.8
Hawai'i @ Arizona StateArizona State 82%
Model
Arizona State -13.2 · mkt Arizona State —
proj Hawai'i 19.8 · Arizona State 33.1
Total
proj 52.9
New Mexico State @ Florida InternationalFlorida International 81%
Model
Florida International -12.7 · mkt Florida International —
proj New Mexico State 21.5 · Florida International 34.2
Total
proj 55.7
North Carolina @ PittsburghPittsburgh 78%
Model
Pittsburgh -11.2 · mkt Pittsburgh —
proj North Carolina 22.3 · Pittsburgh 33.5
Total
proj 55.7
North Dakota State @ UNLVUNLV 78%
Model
UNLV -11.1 · mkt UNLV —
proj North Dakota State 22.4 · UNLV 33.5
Total
proj 55.8
Central Michigan @ OhioOhio 74%
Model
Ohio -9.3 · mkt Ohio —
proj Central Michigan 25.0 · Ohio 34.3
Total
proj 59.3
Coastal Carolina @ MarshallMarshall 74%
Model
Marshall -8.9 · mkt Marshall —
proj Coastal Carolina 23.7 · Marshall 32.6
Total
proj 56.3
South Alabama @ Arkansas StateArkansas State 68%
Model
Arkansas State -6.8 · mkt Arkansas State —
proj South Alabama 23.9 · Arkansas State 30.7
Total
proj 54.7
Wake Forest @ NC StateNC State 67%
Model
NC State -6.2 · mkt NC State —
proj Wake Forest 23.7 · NC State 30.0
Total
proj 53.7
Duke @ Georgia TechGeorgia Tech 67%
Model
Georgia Tech -6.2 · mkt Georgia Tech —
proj Duke 22.0 · Georgia Tech 28.2
Total
proj 50.1
Louisiana @ Louisiana TechLouisiana Tech 66%
Model
Louisiana Tech -6.0 · mkt Louisiana Tech —
proj Louisiana 22.7 · Louisiana Tech 28.7
Total
proj 51.4
Florida State @ LouisvilleLouisville 66%
Model
Louisville -5.7 · mkt Louisville —
proj Florida State 23.6 · Louisville 29.3
Total
proj 53.0
Southern Miss @ TroyTroy 65%
Model
Troy -5.4 · mkt Troy —
proj Southern Miss 24.7 · Troy 30.1
Total
proj 54.9
Houston @ Kansas StateKansas State 64%
Model
Kansas State -5.1 · mkt Kansas State —
proj Houston 23.9 · Kansas State 29.0
Total
proj 52.9
Virginia Tech @ CaliforniaCalifornia 63%
Model
California -4.8 · mkt California —
proj Virginia Tech 24.7 · California 29.5
Total
proj 54.2
South Carolina @ FloridaFlorida 59%
Model
Florida -3.2 · mkt Florida —
proj South Carolina 23.7 · Florida 26.9
Total
proj 50.6
Eastern Michigan @ AkronAkron 57%
Model
Akron -2.5 · mkt Akron —
proj Eastern Michigan 27.0 · Akron 29.5
Total
proj 56.4
Wyoming @ San José StateSan José State 56%
Model
San José State -2.2 · mkt San José State —
proj Wyoming 26.5 · San José State 28.7
Total
proj 55.2
Minnesota @ PurduePurdue 52%
Model
Purdue -0.8 · mkt Purdue —
proj Minnesota 27.8 · Purdue 28.5
Total
proj 56.3
Boise State @ Fresno StateFresno State 52%
Model
Fresno State -0.7 · mkt Fresno State —
proj Boise State 25.2 · Fresno State 25.9
Total
proj 51.0
Jacksonville State @ Kennesaw StateKennesaw State 51%
Model
Kennesaw State -0.4 · mkt Kennesaw State —
proj Jacksonville State 27.0 · Kennesaw State 27.4
Total
proj 54.4
Texas A&M @ MissouriTexas A&M 52%
Model
Texas A&M -0.8 · mkt Texas A&M —
proj Texas A&M 28.5 · Missouri 27.6
Total
proj 56.1
Ole Miss @ VanderbiltOle Miss 53%
Model
Ole Miss -1.2 · mkt Ole Miss —
proj Ole Miss 29.0 · Vanderbilt 27.8
Total
proj 56.8
South Florida @ UTSASouth Florida 56%
Model
South Florida -2.1 · mkt South Florida —
proj South Florida 28.5 · UTSA 26.4
Total
proj 54.9
Tennessee @ ArkansasTennessee 58%
Model
Tennessee -2.9 · mkt Tennessee —
proj Tennessee 29.8 · Arkansas 26.9
Total
proj 56.7
UCF @ Oklahoma StateUCF 66%
Model
UCF -5.8 · mkt UCF —
proj UCF 28.6 · Oklahoma State 22.8
Total
proj 51.4
Washington State @ Utah StateWashington State 70%
Model
Washington State -7.6 · mkt Washington State —
proj Washington State 30.6 · Utah State 23.0
Total
proj 53.5
Illinois @ Michigan StateIllinois 71%
Model
Illinois -8.0 · mkt Illinois —
proj Illinois 31.0 · Michigan State 23.0
Total
proj 53.9
Arizona @ West VirginiaArizona 75%
Model
Arizona -9.4 · mkt Arizona —
proj Arizona 30.9 · West Virginia 21.5
Total
proj 52.4
Air Force @ Northern IllinoisAir Force 77%
Model
Air Force -10.6 · mkt Air Force —
proj Air Force 28.5 · Northern Illinois 17.8
Total
proj 46.3
San Diego State @ Oregon StateSan Diego State 82%
Model
San Diego State -12.8 · mkt San Diego State —
proj San Diego State 34.2 · Oregon State 21.4
Total
proj 55.6
Old Dominion @ App StateOld Dominion 83%
Model
Old Dominion -13.5 · mkt Old Dominion —
proj Old Dominion 34.0 · App State 20.5
Total
proj 54.5
James Madison @ Georgia SouthernJames Madison 87%
Model
James Madison -16.2 · mkt James Madison —
proj James Madison 35.6 · Georgia Southern 19.5
Total
proj 55.1
Indiana @ NebraskaIndiana 88%
Model
Indiana -17.0 · mkt Indiana —
proj Indiana 36.3 · Nebraska 19.3
Total
proj 55.6
Miami (OH) @ MassachusettsMiami (OH) 95%
Model
Miami (OH) -23.7 · mkt Miami (OH) —
proj Miami (OH) 41.7 · Massachusetts 18.1
Total
proj 59.8
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.