CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 5 · FBS · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Notre Dame @ North Carolina3.6 pt gap
Model vs mktNotre Dame -27.1 · mkt Notre Dame ~-23.5
LeanNotre Dame -23.5
Best priceNotre Dame -23.5 -110best of 1
WinNotre Dame 97%
Miami @ Clemson0.4 pt gap
Model vs mktMiami -7.1 · mkt Miami ~-6.7
LeanMiami -6.7
Best priceMiami -6.5 -110best of 2
WinMiami 69%
Full Slate — FBS · Week 5 · 56 games
Notre Dame @ North CarolinaNotre Dame 97%
Model
Notre Dame -27.1 · mkt Notre Dame ~-23.5
proj Notre Dame 36.6 · North Carolina 9.5
leans Notre Dame -23.5
◆ Mid 0
North Carolina +23.5 -110DraftKings
Notre Dame -23.5 -110DraftKings
Miami @ ClemsonMiami 69%
Model
Miami -7.1 · mkt Miami ~-6.7
proj Miami 30.7 · Clemson 23.7
leans Miami -6.7
◆ Mid 0.5
Clemson +7 -110DraftKings
Miami -6.5 -110BetMGM
Temple @ South FloridaSouth Florida 94%
Model
South Florida -21.9 · mkt South Florida —
proj Temple 15.6 · South Florida 37.5
Total
proj 53.1
Middle Tennessee @ KansasKansas 94%
Model
Kansas -21.7 · mkt Kansas —
proj Middle Tennessee 17.0 · Kansas 38.7
Total
proj 55.7
Wyoming @ North Dakota StateNorth Dakota State 93%
Model
North Dakota State -21.0 · mkt North Dakota State —
proj Wyoming 17.8 · North Dakota State 38.8
Total
proj 56.6
Arkansas @ Texas A&MTexas A&M 91%
Model
Texas A&M -19.0 · mkt Texas A&M —
proj Arkansas 18.6 · Texas A&M 37.6
Total
proj 56.2
Vanderbilt @ GeorgiaGeorgia 91%
Model
Georgia -18.7 · mkt Georgia —
proj Vanderbilt 13.0 · Georgia 31.8
Total
proj 44.8
Boston College @ SMUSMU 90%
Model
SMU -18.5 · mkt SMU —
proj Boston College 16.0 · SMU 34.5
Total
proj 50.5
Utah State @ Boise StateBoise State 84%
Model
Boise State -14.3 · mkt Boise State —
proj Utah State 18.6 · Boise State 32.8
Total
proj 51.4
Maryland @ NebraskaNebraska 84%
Model
Nebraska -14.1 · mkt Nebraska —
proj Maryland 19.5 · Nebraska 33.6
Total
proj 53.1
Purdue @ IllinoisIllinois 84%
Model
Illinois -13.9 · mkt Illinois —
proj Purdue 19.8 · Illinois 33.7
Total
proj 53.5
West Virginia @ Iowa StateIowa State 83%
Model
Iowa State -13.6 · mkt Iowa State —
proj West Virginia 19.3 · Iowa State 32.9
Total
proj 52.2
UTEP @ New MexicoNew Mexico 82%
Model
New Mexico -13.1 · mkt New Mexico —
proj UTEP 20.7 · New Mexico 33.8
Total
proj 54.5
San José State @ Hawai'iHawai'i 82%
Model
Hawai'i -12.9 · mkt Hawai'i —
proj San José State 22.0 · Hawai'i 34.9
Total
proj 56.8
UL Monroe @ South AlabamaSouth Alabama 81%
Model
South Alabama -12.5 · mkt South Alabama —
proj UL Monroe 20.6 · South Alabama 33.1
Total
proj 53.8
Marshall @ James MadisonJames Madison 76%
Model
James Madison -10.1 · mkt James Madison —
proj Marshall 24.8 · James Madison 34.9
Total
proj 59.7
Cincinnati @ ArizonaArizona 75%
Model
Arizona -9.7 · mkt Arizona —
proj Cincinnati 23.6 · Arizona 33.3
Total
proj 57.0
Bowling Green @ Miami (OH)Miami (OH) 75%
Model
Miami (OH) -9.6 · mkt Miami (OH) —
proj Bowling Green 21.3 · Miami (OH) 30.9
Total
proj 52.2
Kentucky @ South CarolinaSouth Carolina 70%
Model
South Carolina -7.5 · mkt South Carolina —
proj Kentucky 21.4 · South Carolina 28.9
Total
proj 50.3
Auburn @ TennesseeTennessee 69%
Model
Tennessee -7.0 · mkt Tennessee —
proj Auburn 23.0 · Tennessee 30.0
Total
proj 53.0
Baylor @ Arizona StateArizona State 68%
Model
Arizona State -6.8 · mkt Arizona State —
proj Baylor 23.8 · Arizona State 30.6
Total
proj 54.4
Akron @ Central MichiganCentral Michigan 68%
Model
Central Michigan -6.7 · mkt Central Michigan —
proj Akron 22.5 · Central Michigan 29.2
Total
proj 51.8
Florida @ MissouriMissouri 67%
Model
Missouri -6.2 · mkt Missouri —
proj Florida 24.4 · Missouri 30.6
Total
proj 55.0
Stanford @ Wake ForestWake Forest 66%
Model
Wake Forest -6.0 · mkt Wake Forest —
proj Stanford 23.0 · Wake Forest 29.0
Total
proj 52.0
Fresno State @ Washington StateWashington State 66%
Model
Washington State -6.0 · mkt Washington State —
proj Fresno State 24.8 · Washington State 30.7
Total
proj 55.5
Texas State @ San Diego StateSan Diego State 65%
Model
San Diego State -5.6 · mkt San Diego State —
proj Texas State 22.4 · San Diego State 28.0
Total
proj 50.5
Arkansas State @ LouisianaLouisiana 61%
Model
Louisiana -3.9 · mkt Louisiana —
proj Arkansas State 26.6 · Louisiana 30.5
Total
proj 57.1
Michigan State @ WisconsinWisconsin 60%
Model
Wisconsin -3.5 · mkt Wisconsin —
proj Michigan State 24.9 · Wisconsin 28.4
Total
proj 53.3
Virginia @ Florida StateFlorida State 60%
Model
Florida State -3.4 · mkt Florida State —
proj Virginia 24.8 · Florida State 28.2
Total
proj 53.0
Oregon State @ Colorado StateColorado State 59%
Model
Colorado State -3.4 · mkt Colorado State —
proj Oregon State 24.9 · Colorado State 28.2
Total
proj 53.1
Army @ Louisiana TechLouisiana Tech 56%
Model
Louisiana Tech -2.2 · mkt Louisiana Tech —
proj Army 24.1 · Louisiana Tech 26.2
Total
proj 50.3
Navy @ Air ForceAir Force 51%
Model
Air Force -0.2 · mkt Air Force —
proj Navy 29.4 · Air Force 29.7
Total
proj 59.1
Liberty @ DelawareLiberty 52%
Model
Liberty -0.7 · mkt Liberty —
proj Liberty 30.5 · Delaware 29.9
Total
proj 60.4
Louisville @ NC StateLouisville 55%
Model
Louisville -1.7 · mkt Louisville —
proj Louisville 28.4 · NC State 26.6
Total
proj 55.0
Western Michigan @ BuffaloWestern Michigan 55%
Model
Western Michigan -1.7 · mkt Western Michigan —
proj Western Michigan 28.7 · Buffalo 27.0
Total
proj 55.8
Georgia Southern @ Coastal CarolinaGeorgia Southern 61%
Model
Georgia Southern -3.8 · mkt Georgia Southern —
proj Georgia Southern 29.0 · Coastal Carolina 25.2
Total
proj 54.2
Pittsburgh @ Virginia TechPittsburgh 64%
Model
Pittsburgh -5.2 · mkt Pittsburgh —
proj Pittsburgh 31.7 · Virginia Tech 26.5
Total
proj 58.2
Ohio State @ IowaOhio State 66%
Model
Ohio State -5.9 · mkt Ohio State —
proj Ohio State 32.3 · Iowa 26.4
Total
proj 58.8
Western Kentucky @ New Mexico StateWestern Kentucky 70%
Model
Western Kentucky -7.4 · mkt Western Kentucky —
proj Western Kentucky 31.6 · New Mexico State 24.2
Total
proj 55.8
Eastern Michigan @ MassachusettsEastern Michigan 73%
Model
Eastern Michigan -8.6 · mkt Eastern Michigan —
proj Eastern Michigan 34.3 · Massachusetts 25.7
Total
proj 59.9
Michigan @ MinnesotaMichigan 73%
Model
Michigan -8.6 · mkt Michigan —
proj Michigan 32.7 · Minnesota 24.1
Total
proj 56.7
Alabama @ Mississippi StateAlabama 82%
Model
Alabama -13.1 · mkt Alabama —
proj Alabama 35.1 · Mississippi State 22.1
Total
proj 57.2
Old Dominion @ Georgia StateOld Dominion 82%
Model
Old Dominion -13.2 · mkt Old Dominion —
proj Old Dominion 36.3 · Georgia State 23.0
Total
proj 59.3
Texas Tech @ ColoradoTexas Tech 83%
Model
Texas Tech -13.5 · mkt Texas Tech —
proj Texas Tech 35.2 · Colorado 21.7
Total
proj 56.9
Penn State @ NorthwesternPenn State 86%
Model
Penn State -15.5 · mkt Penn State —
proj Penn State 36.7 · Northwestern 21.2
Total
proj 57.9
North Texas @ TulsaNorth Texas 89%
Model
North Texas -17.6 · mkt North Texas —
proj North Texas 36.8 · Tulsa 19.1
Total
proj 55.9
Toledo @ Ball StateToledo 91%
Model
Toledo -18.9 · mkt Toledo —
proj Toledo 39.5 · Ball State 20.5
Total
proj 60.0
Indiana @ RutgersIndiana 93%
Model
Indiana -21.4 · mkt Indiana —
proj Indiana 41.0 · Rutgers 19.6
Total
proj 60.5
Memphis @ CharlotteMemphis 95%
Model
Memphis -22.7 · mkt Memphis —
proj Memphis 36.0 · Charlotte 13.3
Total
proj 49.4
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.