CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 4 · FBS · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Texas A&M @ LSU6.3 pt gap
Model vs mktTexas A&M -3.3 · mkt Texas A&M ~+3.0
LeanTexas A&M +3.0
Best priceTexas A&M +3 -110best of 1
WinTexas A&M 59%
Texas @ Tennessee4.6 pt gap
Model vs mktTexas -1.9 · mkt Texas ~-6.5
LeanTennessee +6.5
Best priceTennessee +6.5 -110best of 1
WinTexas 55%
Oregon @ USC3.7 pt gap
Model vs mktOregon -1.8 · mkt Oregon ~-5.5
LeanUSC +5.5
Best priceUSC +5.5 -110best of 1
WinOregon 55%
Oklahoma @ Georgia1.5 pt gap
Model vs mktGeorgia -11.5 · mkt Georgia ~-10.0
LeanGeorgia -10.0
Best priceGeorgia -10 -110best of 1
WinGeorgia 79%
Full Slate — FBS · Week 4 · 58 games
Texas A&M @ LSUTexas A&M 59%
Model
Texas A&M -3.3 · mkt Texas A&M ~+3.0
proj Texas A&M 29.1 · LSU 25.8
leans Texas A&M +3.0
◆ Mid 0
LSU -3 -110DraftKings
Texas A&M +3 -110DraftKings
Texas @ TennesseeTexas 55%
Model
Texas -1.9 · mkt Texas ~-6.5
proj Texas 28.7 · Tennessee 26.8
leans Tennessee +6.5
◆ Mid 0
Tennessee +6.5 -110DraftKings
Texas -6.5 -110DraftKings
Oregon @ USCOregon 55%
Model
Oregon -1.8 · mkt Oregon ~-5.5
proj Oregon 29.2 · USC 27.5
leans USC +5.5
◆ Mid 0
USC +5.5 -110DraftKings
Oregon -5.5 -110DraftKings
Oklahoma @ GeorgiaGeorgia 79%
Model
Georgia -11.5 · mkt Georgia ~-10.0
proj Oklahoma 20.4 · Georgia 31.9
leans Georgia -10.0
◆ Mid 0
Georgia -10 -110DraftKings
Oklahoma +10 -110DraftKings
Central Michigan @ MiamiMiami 100%
Model
Miami -40.1 · mkt Miami —
proj Central Michigan 8.1 · Miami 48.3
Total
proj 56.4
Sam Houston @ Texas TechTexas Tech 100%
Model
Texas Tech -36.9 · mkt Texas Tech —
proj Sam Houston 17.5 · Texas Tech 54.4
Total
proj 71.9
Missouri State @ SMUSMU 97%
Model
SMU -27.6 · mkt SMU —
proj Missouri State 14.8 · SMU 42.4
Total
proj 57.2
Delaware @ VirginiaVirginia 97%
Model
Virginia -27.4 · mkt Virginia —
proj Delaware 11.9 · Virginia 39.2
Total
proj 51.1
Tulsa @ ArkansasArkansas 95%
Model
Arkansas -23.6 · mkt Arkansas —
proj Tulsa 15.7 · Arkansas 39.3
Total
proj 55.0
Illinois @ Ohio StateOhio State 94%
Model
Ohio State -22.2 · mkt Ohio State —
proj Illinois 15.2 · Ohio State 37.4
Total
proj 52.5
Northwestern @ IndianaIndiana 94%
Model
Indiana -21.8 · mkt Indiana —
proj Northwestern 18.9 · Indiana 40.6
Total
proj 59.5
Massachusetts @ Sacramento StateSacramento State 93%
Model
Sacramento State -21.0 · mkt Sacramento State —
proj Massachusetts 17.8 · Sacramento State 38.8
Total
proj 56.5
Wisconsin @ Penn StatePenn State 91%
Model
Penn State -19.1 · mkt Penn State —
proj Wisconsin 16.5 · Penn State 35.6
Total
proj 52.2
South Alabama @ KentuckyKentucky 91%
Model
Kentucky -18.6 · mkt Kentucky —
proj South Alabama 17.6 · Kentucky 36.2
Total
proj 53.7
Colorado State @ UTSAUTSA 88%
Model
UTSA -16.7 · mkt UTSA —
proj Colorado State 17.6 · UTSA 34.2
Total
proj 51.8
South Carolina @ AlabamaAlabama 88%
Model
Alabama -16.6 · mkt Alabama —
proj South Carolina 17.7 · Alabama 34.3
Total
proj 52.0
App State @ NC StateNC State 84%
Model
NC State -14.2 · mkt NC State —
proj App State 20.4 · NC State 34.7
Total
proj 55.1
Rice @ Fresno StateFresno State 83%
Model
Fresno State -13.5 · mkt Fresno State —
proj Rice 20.9 · Fresno State 34.4
Total
proj 55.3
Southern Miss @ TulaneTulane 82%
Model
Tulane -12.7 · mkt Tulane —
proj Southern Miss 19.7 · Tulane 32.5
Total
proj 52.2
Middle Tennessee @ Jacksonville StateJacksonville State 80%
Model
Jacksonville State -12.0 · mkt Jacksonville State —
proj Middle Tennessee 21.8 · Jacksonville State 33.8
Total
proj 55.6
Oklahoma State @ West VirginiaWest Virginia 80%
Model
West Virginia -11.7 · mkt West Virginia —
proj Oklahoma State 21.9 · West Virginia 33.6
Total
proj 55.4
Wake Forest @ LouisvilleLouisville 77%
Model
Louisville -10.3 · mkt Louisville —
proj Wake Forest 22.5 · Louisville 32.8
Total
proj 55.3
Minnesota @ WashingtonWashington 74%
Model
Washington -9.2 · mkt Washington —
proj Minnesota 23.5 · Washington 32.7
Total
proj 56.1
Colorado @ BaylorBaylor 71%
Model
Baylor -8.0 · mkt Baylor —
proj Colorado 21.3 · Baylor 29.3
Total
proj 50.6
San Diego State @ ToledoToledo 69%
Model
Toledo -7.1 · mkt Toledo —
proj San Diego State 21.6 · Toledo 28.7
Total
proj 50.3
Kennesaw State @ Arkansas StateArkansas State 68%
Model
Arkansas State -6.6 · mkt Arkansas State —
proj Kennesaw State 22.7 · Arkansas State 29.2
Total
proj 51.9
Troy @ Utah StateUtah State 65%
Model
Utah State -5.5 · mkt Utah State —
proj Troy 26.5 · Utah State 32.0
Total
proj 58.5
Ball State @ Kent StateKent State 64%
Model
Kent State -5.0 · mkt Kent State —
proj Ball State 25.9 · Kent State 31.0
Total
proj 56.9
Iowa @ MichiganMichigan 58%
Model
Michigan -2.8 · mkt Michigan —
proj Iowa 25.9 · Michigan 28.6
Total
proj 54.5
Boise State @ Western MichiganWestern Michigan 58%
Model
Western Michigan -2.8 · mkt Western Michigan —
proj Boise State 21.4 · Western Michigan 24.1
Total
proj 45.5
UCLA @ MarylandMaryland 56%
Model
Maryland -2.2 · mkt Maryland —
proj UCLA 24.8 · Maryland 26.9
Total
proj 51.7
James Madison @ Old DominionOld Dominion 52%
Model
Old Dominion -0.9 · mkt Old Dominion —
proj James Madison 27.7 · Old Dominion 28.5
Total
proj 56.2
Liberty @ Coastal CarolinaCoastal Carolina 52%
Model
Coastal Carolina -0.7 · mkt Coastal Carolina —
proj Liberty 27.3 · Coastal Carolina 28.0
Total
proj 55.3
Missouri @ Mississippi StateMississippi State 51%
Model
Mississippi State -0.3 · mkt Mississippi State —
proj Missouri 29.9 · Mississippi State 30.1
Total
proj 60.0
Virginia Tech @ Boston CollegeVirginia Tech 51%
Model
Virginia Tech -0.5 · mkt Virginia Tech —
proj Virginia Tech 27.7 · Boston College 27.2
Total
proj 54.9
Northern Illinois @ Georgia StateNorthern Illinois 52%
Model
Northern Illinois -0.8 · mkt Northern Illinois —
proj Northern Illinois 25.0 · Georgia State 24.2
Total
proj 49.1
Arizona @ Washington StateArizona 53%
Model
Arizona -1.0 · mkt Arizona —
proj Arizona 26.8 · Washington State 25.8
Total
proj 52.5
Kansas State @ CincinnatiKansas State 54%
Model
Kansas State -1.6 · mkt Kansas State —
proj Kansas State 26.9 · Cincinnati 25.3
Total
proj 52.1
Vanderbilt @ AuburnVanderbilt 57%
Model
Vanderbilt -2.7 · mkt Vanderbilt —
proj Vanderbilt 27.6 · Auburn 25.0
Total
proj 52.6
Hawai'i @ WyomingHawai'i 60%
Model
Hawai'i -3.5 · mkt Hawai'i —
proj Hawai'i 30.5 · Wyoming 27.0
Total
proj 57.4
Oregon State @ UTEPOregon State 60%
Model
Oregon State -3.6 · mkt Oregon State —
proj Oregon State 31.3 · UTEP 27.7
Total
proj 59.0
UConn @ Miami (OH)UConn 64%
Model
UConn -5.2 · mkt UConn —
proj UConn 28.6 · Miami (OH) 23.4
Total
proj 52.0
Nebraska @ Michigan StateNebraska 65%
Model
Nebraska -5.6 · mkt Nebraska —
proj Nebraska 31.9 · Michigan State 26.3
Total
proj 58.3
Florida Atlantic @ UL MonroeFlorida Atlantic 69%
Model
Florida Atlantic -7.1 · mkt Florida Atlantic —
proj Florida Atlantic 32.5 · UL Monroe 25.5
Total
proj 58.0
Houston @ Georgia SouthernHouston 69%
Model
Houston -7.2 · mkt Houston —
proj Houston 33.1 · Georgia Southern 25.9
Total
proj 59.0
Air Force @ NevadaAir Force 74%
Model
Air Force -9.3 · mkt Air Force —
proj Air Force 29.9 · Nevada 20.6
Total
proj 50.5
Louisiana @ CharlotteLouisiana 74%
Model
Louisiana -9.3 · mkt Louisiana —
proj Louisiana 32.8 · Charlotte 23.5
Total
proj 56.3
Georgia Tech @ StanfordGeorgia Tech 77%
Model
Georgia Tech -10.4 · mkt Georgia Tech —
proj Georgia Tech 31.2 · Stanford 20.8
Total
proj 52.0
New Mexico @ New Mexico StateNew Mexico 77%
Model
New Mexico -10.4 · mkt New Mexico —
proj New Mexico 32.3 · New Mexico State 21.9
Total
proj 54.2
Clemson @ CaliforniaClemson 79%
Model
Clemson -11.2 · mkt Clemson —
proj Clemson 34.4 · California 23.1
Total
proj 57.5
Ole Miss @ FloridaOle Miss 80%
Model
Ole Miss -12.1 · mkt Ole Miss —
proj Ole Miss 33.2 · Florida 21.2
Total
proj 54.4
South Florida @ Bowling GreenSouth Florida 93%
Model
South Florida -21.2 · mkt South Florida —
proj South Florida 37.2 · Bowling Green 16.1
Total
proj 53.3
Notre Dame @ PurdueNotre Dame 96%
Model
Notre Dame -25.5 · mkt Notre Dame —
proj Notre Dame 36.3 · Purdue 10.8
Total
proj 47.1
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.