CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 3 · FBS · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Florida @ Auburn8.8 pt gap
Model vs mktAuburn -8.8 · mkt Auburn ~0.0
LeanAuburn 0.0
Best priceAuburn 0 -110best of 1
WinAuburn 73%
LSU @ Ole Miss7.9 pt gap
Model vs mktOle Miss -9.9 · mkt Ole Miss ~-2.0
LeanOle Miss -2.0
Best priceOle Miss -1.5 -110best of 3
WinOle Miss 76%
Florida State @ Alabama3.5 pt gap
Model vs mktAlabama -12.0 · mkt Alabama ~-15.5
LeanFlorida State +15.5
Best priceFlorida State +15.5 -110best of 1
WinAlabama 80%
SMU @ Louisville1.1 pt gap
Model vs mktLouisville -2.6 · mkt Louisville ~-1.5
LeanLouisville -1.5
Best priceLouisville -1.5 -110best of 1
WinLouisville 57%
Full Slate — FBS · Week 3 · 57 games
Florida @ AuburnAuburn 73%
Model
Auburn -8.8 · mkt Auburn ~0.0
proj Florida 23.9 · Auburn 32.7
leans Auburn 0.0
◆ Mid 0
Auburn 0 -110DraftKings
Florida 0 -110DraftKings
LSU @ Ole MissOle Miss 76%
Model
Ole Miss -9.9 · mkt Ole Miss ~-2.0
proj LSU 24.0 · Ole Miss 33.9
leans Ole Miss -2.0
◆ Mid 1
Ole Miss -1.5 -110DraftKings
LSU +2.5 -110FanDuel
Florida State @ AlabamaAlabama 80%
Model
Alabama -12.0 · mkt Alabama ~-15.5
proj Florida State 21.6 · Alabama 33.5
leans Florida State +15.5
◆ Mid 0
Alabama -15.5 -110DraftKings
Florida State +15.5 -110DraftKings
SMU @ LouisvilleLouisville 57%
Model
Louisville -2.6 · mkt Louisville ~-1.5
proj SMU 25.8 · Louisville 28.3
leans Louisville -1.5
◆ Mid 0
Louisville -1.5 -110DraftKings
SMU +1.5 -110DraftKings
Kent State @ Ohio StateOhio State 100%
Model
Ohio State -47.7 · mkt Ohio State —
proj Kent State 6.4 · Ohio State 54.1
Total
proj 60.5
UTEP @ MichiganMichigan 100%
Model
Michigan -40.4 · mkt Michigan —
proj UTEP 4.0 · Michigan 44.4
Total
proj 48.5
Buffalo @ Penn StatePenn State 99%
Model
Penn State -34.8 · mkt Penn State —
proj Buffalo 9.5 · Penn State 44.4
Total
proj 53.9
Kennesaw State @ TennesseeTennessee 98%
Model
Tennessee -30.2 · mkt Tennessee —
proj Kennesaw State 10.5 · Tennessee 40.7
Total
proj 51.2
Northern Illinois @ ArizonaArizona 98%
Model
Arizona -28.0 · mkt Arizona —
proj Northern Illinois 12.7 · Arizona 40.7
Total
proj 53.4
Troy @ MissouriMissouri 96%
Model
Missouri -24.6 · mkt Missouri —
proj Troy 15.1 · Missouri 39.7
Total
proj 54.8
Western Kentucky @ IndianaIndiana 96%
Model
Indiana -24.2 · mkt Indiana —
proj Western Kentucky 14.0 · Indiana 38.2
Total
proj 52.3
New Mexico @ OklahomaOklahoma 95%
Model
Oklahoma -24.0 · mkt Oklahoma —
proj New Mexico 15.6 · Oklahoma 39.6
Total
proj 55.1
Arkansas State @ TCUTCU 95%
Model
TCU -23.0 · mkt TCU —
proj Arkansas State 16.0 · TCU 39.0
Total
proj 55.1
Akron @ MinnesotaMinnesota 93%
Model
Minnesota -21.3 · mkt Minnesota —
proj Akron 17.3 · Minnesota 38.6
Total
proj 55.9
North Carolina @ ClemsonClemson 93%
Model
Clemson -21.0 · mkt Clemson —
proj North Carolina 16.8 · Clemson 37.8
Total
proj 54.6
Bowling Green @ Iowa StateIowa State 93%
Model
Iowa State -20.5 · mkt Iowa State —
proj Bowling Green 16.8 · Iowa State 37.3
Total
proj 54.1
Michigan State @ Notre DameNotre Dame 92%
Model
Notre Dame -19.8 · mkt Notre Dame —
proj Michigan State 19.2 · Notre Dame 39.0
Total
proj 58.2
Kentucky @ Texas A&MTexas A&M 90%
Model
Texas A&M -18.2 · mkt Texas A&M —
proj Kentucky 17.6 · Texas A&M 35.8
Total
proj 53.3
Temple @ ToledoToledo 90%
Model
Toledo -18.2 · mkt Toledo —
proj Temple 22.4 · Toledo 40.6
Total
proj 63.0
Georgia State @ UCFUCF 88%
Model
UCF -16.5 · mkt UCF —
proj Georgia State 18.3 · UCF 34.8
Total
proj 53.1
Eastern Michigan @ WisconsinWisconsin 86%
Model
Wisconsin -15.6 · mkt Wisconsin —
proj Eastern Michigan 18.1 · Wisconsin 33.7
Total
proj 51.8
Houston @ Texas TechTexas Tech 86%
Model
Texas Tech -15.5 · mkt Texas Tech —
proj Houston 18.9 · Texas Tech 34.4
Total
proj 53.3
Ball State @ LibertyLiberty 85%
Model
Liberty -14.9 · mkt Liberty —
proj Ball State 18.3 · Liberty 33.2
Total
proj 51.5
Syracuse @ PittsburghPittsburgh 83%
Model
Pittsburgh -13.4 · mkt Pittsburgh —
proj Syracuse 22.1 · Pittsburgh 35.5
Total
proj 57.6
Louisiana Tech @ BaylorBaylor 80%
Model
Baylor -11.8 · mkt Baylor —
proj Louisiana Tech 21.5 · Baylor 33.4
Total
proj 54.9
NC State @ VanderbiltVanderbilt 78%
Model
Vanderbilt -11.2 · mkt Vanderbilt —
proj NC State 19.5 · Vanderbilt 30.6
Total
proj 50.1
Colorado @ NorthwesternNorthwestern 78%
Model
Northwestern -10.8 · mkt Northwestern —
proj Colorado 17.0 · Northwestern 27.8
Total
proj 44.9
Charlotte @ App StateApp State 77%
Model
App State -10.5 · mkt App State —
proj Charlotte 22.1 · App State 32.6
Total
proj 54.8
Miami (OH) @ CincinnatiCincinnati 74%
Model
Cincinnati -9.1 · mkt Cincinnati —
proj Miami (OH) 21.9 · Cincinnati 31.0
Total
proj 52.9
UAB @ LouisianaLouisiana 73%
Model
Louisiana -8.7 · mkt Louisiana —
proj UAB 21.6 · Louisiana 30.2
Total
proj 51.8
Coastal Carolina @ DelawareDelaware 70%
Model
Delaware -7.3 · mkt Delaware —
proj Coastal Carolina 27.5 · Delaware 34.9
Total
proj 62.4
North Dakota State @ Sacramento StateSacramento State 67%
Model
Sacramento State -6.3 · mkt Sacramento State —
proj North Dakota State 23.1 · Sacramento State 29.4
Total
proj 52.5
Tulane @ Kansas StateKansas State 65%
Model
Kansas State -5.6 · mkt Kansas State —
proj Tulane 23.1 · Kansas State 28.7
Total
proj 51.8
Mississippi State @ South CarolinaSouth Carolina 64%
Model
South Carolina -5.1 · mkt South Carolina —
proj Mississippi State 23.3 · South Carolina 28.4
Total
proj 51.7
Wyoming @ Central MichiganCentral Michigan 64%
Model
Central Michigan -4.9 · mkt Central Michigan —
proj Wyoming 24.3 · Central Michigan 29.3
Total
proj 53.6
Georgia Southern @ Jacksonville StateJacksonville State 63%
Model
Jacksonville State -4.9 · mkt Jacksonville State —
proj Georgia Southern 24.2 · Jacksonville State 29.0
Total
proj 53.2
Florida International @ Florida AtlanticFlorida Atlantic 60%
Model
Florida Atlantic -3.5 · mkt Florida Atlantic —
proj Florida International 25.6 · Florida Atlantic 29.0
Total
proj 54.6
Virginia Tech @ MarylandMaryland 57%
Model
Maryland -2.4 · mkt Maryland —
proj Virginia Tech 26.8 · Maryland 29.1
Total
proj 55.9
East Carolina @ Old DominionOld Dominion 54%
Model
Old Dominion -1.3 · mkt Old Dominion —
proj East Carolina 26.6 · Old Dominion 27.9
Total
proj 54.5
Nevada @ Middle TennesseeNevada 51%
Model
Nevada -0.5 · mkt Nevada —
proj Nevada 27.0 · Middle Tennessee 26.6
Total
proj 53.6
James Madison @ San Diego StateJames Madison 56%
Model
James Madison -2.1 · mkt James Madison —
proj James Madison 27.0 · San Diego State 25.0
Total
proj 52.0
Marshall @ Missouri StateMarshall 56%
Model
Marshall -2.1 · mkt Marshall —
proj Marshall 32.3 · Missouri State 30.2
Total
proj 62.6
Kansas @ Arizona StateKansas 57%
Model
Kansas -2.4 · mkt Kansas —
proj Kansas 26.9 · Arizona State 24.6
Total
proj 51.5
North Texas @ Texas StateNorth Texas 63%
Model
North Texas -4.8 · mkt North Texas —
proj North Texas 28.9 · Texas State 24.1
Total
proj 52.9
Ohio @ South AlabamaOhio 65%
Model
Ohio -5.6 · mkt Ohio —
proj Ohio 29.5 · South Alabama 23.9
Total
proj 53.4
UConn @ Southern MissUConn 67%
Model
UConn -6.3 · mkt UConn —
proj UConn 30.1 · Southern Miss 23.8
Total
proj 54.0
Virginia @ West VirginiaVirginia 67%
Model
Virginia -6.3 · mkt Virginia —
proj Virginia 29.0 · West Virginia 22.7
Total
proj 51.8
Western Michigan @ RiceWestern Michigan 72%
Model
Western Michigan -8.4 · mkt Western Michigan —
proj Western Michigan 32.4 · Rice 24.0
Total
proj 56.4
Fresno State @ San José StateFresno State 74%
Model
Fresno State -8.9 · mkt Fresno State —
proj Fresno State 34.2 · San José State 25.3
Total
proj 59.6
Georgia @ ArkansasGeorgia 86%
Model
Georgia -15.2 · mkt Georgia —
proj Georgia 37.3 · Arkansas 22.1
Total
proj 59.3
Miami @ Wake ForestMiami 89%
Model
Miami -17.7 · mkt Miami —
proj Miami 37.9 · Wake Forest 20.2
Total
proj 58.1
BYU @ Colorado StateBYU 91%
Model
BYU -18.8 · mkt BYU —
proj BYU 40.1 · Colorado State 21.3
Total
proj 61.4
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.