CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 8 · Sun Belt · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Sun Belt · Week 8 · 6 games
South Alabama @ MarshallMarshall 80%
Model
Marshall -12.2 · mkt Marshall —
proj South Alabama 20.8 · Marshall 33.0
Total
proj 53.8
Georgia State @ Arkansas StateArkansas State 74%
Model
Arkansas State -9.3 · mkt Arkansas State —
proj Georgia State 23.6 · Arkansas State 32.9
Total
proj 56.5
Louisiana @ Southern MissSouthern Miss 62%
Model
Southern Miss -4.3 · mkt Southern Miss —
proj Louisiana 24.2 · Southern Miss 28.5
Total
proj 52.7
Old Dominion @ Louisiana TechOld Dominion 55%
Model
Old Dominion -1.9 · mkt Old Dominion —
proj Old Dominion 28.6 · Louisiana Tech 26.7
Total
proj 55.4
James Madison @ App StateJames Madison 89%
Model
James Madison -17.8 · mkt James Madison —
proj James Madison 34.0 · App State 16.2
Total
proj 50.2
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.