CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 10 · Sun Belt · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Full Slate — Sun Belt · Week 10 · 7 games
UL Monroe @ Arkansas StateArkansas State 90%
Model
Arkansas State -18.1 · mkt Arkansas State —
proj UL Monroe 16.9 · Arkansas State 35.1
Total
proj 52.0
Georgia State @ App StateApp State 74%
Model
App State -9.0 · mkt App State —
proj Georgia State 23.6 · App State 32.6
Total
proj 56.2
South Alabama @ LouisianaLouisiana 62%
Model
Louisiana -4.4 · mkt Louisiana —
proj South Alabama 23.8 · Louisiana 28.2
Total
proj 52.0
Marshall @ Georgia SouthernGeorgia Southern 57%
Model
Georgia Southern -2.6 · mkt Georgia Southern —
proj Marshall 26.3 · Georgia Southern 28.9
Total
proj 55.1
Louisiana Tech @ TroyTroy 57%
Model
Troy -2.4 · mkt Troy —
proj Louisiana Tech 26.1 · Troy 28.5
Total
proj 54.6
Old Dominion @ Coastal CarolinaOld Dominion 68%
Model
Old Dominion -6.6 · mkt Old Dominion —
proj Old Dominion 30.6 · Coastal Carolina 24.0
Total
proj 54.6
James Madison @ Southern MissJames Madison 78%
Model
James Madison -11.0 · mkt James Madison —
proj James Madison 32.7 · Southern Miss 21.7
Total
proj 54.4
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.