CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 1 · Sun Belt · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Liberty @ James Madison10.8 pt gap
Model vs mktJames Madison -16.8 · mkt James Madison -6.0
LeanJames Madison -6.0
Best priceJames Madison -6 -110best of 7
WinJames Madison 88%
Marshall @ Penn State7.7 pt gap
Model vs mktPenn State -31.2 · mkt Penn State -23.5
LeanPenn State -23.5
Best pricePenn State -22.5 -106best of 7
WinPenn State 99%
Coastal Carolina @ West Virginia6.2 pt gap
Model vs mktWest Virginia -11.3 · mkt West Virginia -17.5
LeanCoastal Carolina +17.5
Best priceCoastal Carolina +18.5 -115best of 7
WinWest Virginia 79%
Arkansas State @ Memphis0.9 pt gap
Model vs mktMemphis -9.6 · mkt Memphis -10.5
LeanArkansas State +10.5
Best priceArkansas State +10.5 -110best of 6
WinMemphis 75%
UL Monroe @ Mississippi State0.3 pt gap
Model vs mktMississippi State -28.8 · mkt Mississippi State -28.5
LeanMississippi State -28.5
Best priceMississippi State -28.5 -108best of 7
WinMississippi State 98%
Sam Houston @ Troy0.1 pt gap
Model vs mktTroy -16.9 · mkt Troy -17.0
LeanSam Houston +17.0
Best priceSam Houston +18 -106best of 7
WinTroy 88%
Full Slate — Sun Belt · Week 1 · 6 games
Liberty @ James MadisonJames Madison 88%
Model
James Madison -16.8 · mkt James Madison -6.0
proj Liberty 20.2 · James Madison 37.0
leans James Madison -6.0
◆ Mid 0.5
James Madison -6 -110DraftKings
Liberty +6.5 -108FanDuel
Marshall @ Penn StatePenn State 99%
Model
Penn State -31.2 · mkt Penn State -23.5
proj Marshall 10.9 · Penn State 42.0
leans Penn State -23.5
◆ Mid 1
Penn State -22.5 -106LowVig
Marshall +23.5 -112DraftKings
Coastal Carolina @ West VirginiaWest Virginia 79%
Model
West Virginia -11.3 · mkt West Virginia -17.5
proj Coastal Carolina 20.4 · West Virginia 31.7
leans Coastal Carolina +17.5
◆ Mid 1
West Virginia -17.5 -112DraftKings
Coastal Carolina +18.5 -115FanDuel
Arkansas State @ MemphisMemphis 75%
Model
Memphis -9.6 · mkt Memphis -10.5
proj Arkansas State 19.4 · Memphis 29.1
leans Arkansas State +10.5
◆ Mid 0
Memphis -10.5 -110DraftKings
Arkansas State +10.5 -110DraftKings
UL Monroe @ Mississippi StateMississippi State 98%
Model
Mississippi State -28.8 · mkt Mississippi State -28.5
proj UL Monroe 12.6 · Mississippi State 41.4
leans Mississippi State -28.5
◆ Mid 0
Mississippi State -28.5 -108DraftKings
UL Monroe +28.5 -112DraftKings
Sam Houston @ TroyTroy 88%
Model
Troy -16.9 · mkt Troy -17.0
proj Sam Houston 19.5 · Troy 36.4
leans Sam Houston +17.0
◆ Mid 0.5
Troy -17.5 -105DraftKings
Sam Houston +18 -106LowVig
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.