CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 9 · SEC · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

All Big Ten SEC Big 12 ACC FBS Independents Pac-12 American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA

Season2026 2025 2024

Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Full Slate — SEC · Week 9 · 5 games

Florida @ GeorgiaGeorgia 91%

Model

Georgia -19.4 · mkt Georgia —

proj Florida 15.5 · Georgia 34.9

Total

proj 50.4

Mississippi State @ TexasTexas 90%

Model

Texas -17.9 · mkt Texas —

proj Mississippi State 17.8 · Texas 35.7

Total

proj 53.5

South Carolina @ OklahomaOklahoma 74%

Model

Oklahoma -9.3 · mkt Oklahoma —

proj South Carolina 22.8 · Oklahoma 32.1

Total

proj 54.9

Auburn @ Ole MissOle Miss 69%

Model

Ole Miss -7.2 · mkt Ole Miss —

proj Auburn 25.0 · Ole Miss 32.2

Total

proj 57.2

Missouri @ ArkansasArkansas 50%

Model

Arkansas 0.0 · mkt Arkansas —

proj Missouri 31.1 · Arkansas 31.1

Total

proj 62.3

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.