CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 5 · SEC · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — SEC · Week 5 · 6 games
Arkansas @ Texas A&MTexas A&M 91%
Model
Texas A&M -19.0 · mkt Texas A&M —
proj Arkansas 18.6 · Texas A&M 37.6
Total
proj 56.2
Vanderbilt @ GeorgiaGeorgia 91%
Model
Georgia -18.7 · mkt Georgia —
proj Vanderbilt 13.0 · Georgia 31.8
Total
proj 44.8
Kentucky @ South CarolinaSouth Carolina 70%
Model
South Carolina -7.5 · mkt South Carolina —
proj Kentucky 21.4 · South Carolina 28.9
Total
proj 50.3
Auburn @ TennesseeTennessee 69%
Model
Tennessee -7.0 · mkt Tennessee —
proj Auburn 23.0 · Tennessee 30.0
Total
proj 53.0
Florida @ MissouriMissouri 67%
Model
Missouri -6.2 · mkt Missouri —
proj Florida 24.4 · Missouri 30.6
Total
proj 55.0
Alabama @ Mississippi StateAlabama 82%
Model
Alabama -13.1 · mkt Alabama —
proj Alabama 35.1 · Mississippi State 22.1
Total
proj 57.2
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.