CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 4 · SEC · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Texas A&M @ LSU6.3 pt gap
Model vs mktTexas A&M -3.3 · mkt Texas A&M ~+3.0
LeanTexas A&M +3.0
Best priceTexas A&M +3 -110best of 1
WinTexas A&M 59%
Texas @ Tennessee4.6 pt gap
Model vs mktTexas -1.9 · mkt Texas ~-6.5
LeanTennessee +6.5
Best priceTennessee +6.5 -110best of 1
WinTexas 55%
Oklahoma @ Georgia1.5 pt gap
Model vs mktGeorgia -11.5 · mkt Georgia ~-10.0
LeanGeorgia -10.0
Best priceGeorgia -10 -110best of 1
WinGeorgia 79%
Full Slate — SEC · Week 4 · 9 games
Texas A&M @ LSUTexas A&M 59%
Model
Texas A&M -3.3 · mkt Texas A&M ~+3.0
proj Texas A&M 29.1 · LSU 25.8
leans Texas A&M +3.0
◆ Mid 0
LSU -3 -110DraftKings
Texas A&M +3 -110DraftKings
Texas @ TennesseeTexas 55%
Model
Texas -1.9 · mkt Texas ~-6.5
proj Texas 28.7 · Tennessee 26.8
leans Tennessee +6.5
◆ Mid 0
Tennessee +6.5 -110DraftKings
Texas -6.5 -110DraftKings
Oklahoma @ GeorgiaGeorgia 79%
Model
Georgia -11.5 · mkt Georgia ~-10.0
proj Oklahoma 20.4 · Georgia 31.9
leans Georgia -10.0
◆ Mid 0
Georgia -10 -110DraftKings
Oklahoma +10 -110DraftKings
Tulsa @ ArkansasArkansas 95%
Model
Arkansas -23.6 · mkt Arkansas —
proj Tulsa 15.7 · Arkansas 39.3
Total
proj 55.0
South Alabama @ KentuckyKentucky 91%
Model
Kentucky -18.6 · mkt Kentucky —
proj South Alabama 17.6 · Kentucky 36.2
Total
proj 53.7
South Carolina @ AlabamaAlabama 88%
Model
Alabama -16.6 · mkt Alabama —
proj South Carolina 17.7 · Alabama 34.3
Total
proj 52.0
Missouri @ Mississippi StateMississippi State 51%
Model
Mississippi State -0.3 · mkt Mississippi State —
proj Missouri 29.9 · Mississippi State 30.1
Total
proj 60.0
Vanderbilt @ AuburnVanderbilt 57%
Model
Vanderbilt -2.7 · mkt Vanderbilt —
proj Vanderbilt 27.6 · Auburn 25.0
Total
proj 52.6
Ole Miss @ FloridaOle Miss 80%
Model
Ole Miss -12.1 · mkt Ole Miss —
proj Ole Miss 33.2 · Florida 21.2
Total
proj 54.4
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.