CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 13 · SEC · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
Full Slate SEC · Week 13 · 10 games
Model
Georgia -16.4 · mkt Georgia
proj Georgia Tech 18.3 · Georgia 34.7
Total
proj 53.0
Model
Ole Miss -15.1 · mkt Ole Miss
proj Mississippi State 17.8 · Ole Miss 32.8
Total
proj 50.6
Texas @ Texas A&MTexas A&M 70%
Model
Texas A&M -7.5 · mkt Texas A&M
proj Texas 23.1 · Texas A&M 30.6
Total
proj 53.6
Model
Clemson -6.7 · mkt Clemson
proj South Carolina 22.4 · Clemson 29.1
Total
proj 51.5
Auburn @ AlabamaAlabama 66%
Model
Alabama -6.0 · mkt Alabama
proj Auburn 24.2 · Alabama 30.2
Total
proj 54.5
Florida @ Florida StateFlorida State 58%
Model
Florida State -3.0 · mkt Florida State
proj Florida 24.7 · Florida State 27.7
Total
proj 52.5
Model
Vanderbilt -0.9 · mkt Vanderbilt
proj Tennessee 25.9 · Vanderbilt 26.9
Total
proj 52.8
Model
Kentucky -0.3 · mkt Kentucky
proj Louisville 27.6 · Kentucky 27.9
Total
proj 55.5
Model
Oklahoma -2.3 · mkt Oklahoma
proj Oklahoma 28.6 · Missouri 26.3
Total
proj 54.9
Model
LSU -6.9 · mkt LSU
proj LSU 29.6 · Arkansas 22.7
Total
proj 52.3
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.