CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 12 · SEC · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Full Slate — SEC · Week 12 · 6 games
Arkansas @ TexasTexas 83%
Model
Texas -13.3 · mkt Texas —
proj Arkansas 21.1 · Texas 34.5
Total
proj 55.6
Kentucky @ MissouriMissouri 73%
Model
Missouri -8.5 · mkt Missouri —
proj Kentucky 21.9 · Missouri 30.4
Total
proj 52.4
LSU @ TennesseeTennessee 67%
Model
Tennessee -6.3 · mkt Tennessee —
proj LSU 22.3 · Tennessee 28.6
Total
proj 50.9
Texas A&M @ OklahomaOklahoma 53%
Model
Oklahoma -0.9 · mkt Oklahoma —
proj Texas A&M 26.6 · Oklahoma 27.5
Total
proj 54.0
Vanderbilt @ FloridaVanderbilt 71%
Model
Vanderbilt -7.9 · mkt Vanderbilt —
proj Vanderbilt 26.3 · Florida 18.4
Total
proj 44.8
Georgia @ South CarolinaGeorgia 88%
Model
Georgia -16.5 · mkt Georgia —
proj Georgia 36.7 · South Carolina 20.2
Total
proj 56.9
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.