CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 11 · SEC · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Full Slate — SEC · Week 11 · 8 games
Missouri @ GeorgiaGeorgia 81%
Model
Georgia -12.2 · mkt Georgia —
proj Missouri 21.9 · Georgia 34.2
Total
proj 56.1
Tennessee @ Texas A&MTexas A&M 67%
Model
Texas A&M -6.3 · mkt Texas A&M —
proj Tennessee 23.7 · Texas A&M 29.9
Total
proj 53.6
Alabama @ VanderbiltVanderbilt 52%
Model
Vanderbilt -0.6 · mkt Vanderbilt —
proj Alabama 28.6 · Vanderbilt 29.2
Total
proj 57.8
South Carolina @ ArkansasSouth Carolina 54%
Model
South Carolina -1.5 · mkt South Carolina —
proj South Carolina 26.0 · Arkansas 24.5
Total
proj 50.6
Florida @ KentuckyFlorida 55%
Model
Florida -1.7 · mkt Florida —
proj Florida 29.0 · Kentucky 27.3
Total
proj 56.3
Auburn @ Mississippi StateAuburn 60%
Model
Auburn -3.5 · mkt Auburn —
proj Auburn 30.2 · Mississippi State 26.8
Total
proj 57.0
Ole Miss @ OklahomaOle Miss 65%
Model
Ole Miss -5.6 · mkt Ole Miss —
proj Ole Miss 30.4 · Oklahoma 24.9
Total
proj 55.3
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.