CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 10 · SEC · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Full Slate — SEC · Week 10 · 8 games
Kentucky @ TennesseeTennessee 87%
Model
Tennessee -16.2 · mkt Tennessee —
proj Kentucky 18.4 · Tennessee 34.5
Total
proj 52.9
Arkansas @ AuburnAuburn 75%
Model
Auburn -9.4 · mkt Auburn —
proj Arkansas 22.1 · Auburn 31.5
Total
proj 53.6
Texas @ MissouriMissouri 54%
Model
Missouri -1.3 · mkt Missouri —
proj Texas 25.7 · Missouri 27.0
Total
proj 52.6
Georgia @ Ole MissGeorgia 56%
Model
Georgia -2.3 · mkt Georgia —
proj Georgia 31.2 · Ole Miss 28.9
Total
proj 60.2
Oklahoma @ FloridaOklahoma 69%
Model
Oklahoma -7.1 · mkt Oklahoma —
proj Oklahoma 31.1 · Florida 24.0
Total
proj 55.1
Texas A&M @ South CarolinaTexas A&M 72%
Model
Texas A&M -8.4 · mkt Texas A&M —
proj Texas A&M 31.6 · South Carolina 23.2
Total
proj 54.8
Vanderbilt @ Mississippi StateVanderbilt 88%
Model
Vanderbilt -16.6 · mkt Vanderbilt —
proj Vanderbilt 34.6 · Mississippi State 18.0
Total
proj 52.6
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.