CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 1 · SEC · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
East Carolina @ Alabama10.9 pt gap
Model vs mktAlabama -15.1 · mkt Alabama -26.0
LeanEast Carolina +26.0
Best priceEast Carolina +26.5 -108best of 8
WinAlabama 86%
Clemson @ LSU7.7 pt gap
Model vs mktLSU -3.3 · mkt LSU -11.0
LeanClemson +11.0
Best priceClemson +12 -109best of 8
WinLSU 59%
Louisville @ Ole Miss7.3 pt gap
Model vs mktOle Miss -13.8 · mkt Ole Miss -6.5
LeanOle Miss -6.5
Best priceOle Miss -4.5 -110best of 6
WinOle Miss 84%
Texas State @ Texas6.7 pt gap
Model vs mktTexas -23.8 · mkt Texas -30.5
LeanTexas State +30.5
Best priceTexas State +31.5 -115best of 7
WinTexas 95%
Baylor @ Auburn6.6 pt gap
Model vs mktAuburn -13.4 · mkt Auburn -6.8
LeanAuburn -6.8
Best priceAuburn -7 -105best of 8
WinAuburn 83%
Missouri State @ Texas A&M5.7 pt gap
Model vs mktTexas A&M -44.2 · mkt Texas A&M -38.5
LeanTexas A&M -38.5
Best priceTexas A&M -38.5 -110best of 7
WinTexas A&M 100%
UTEP @ Oklahoma2.8 pt gap
Model vs mktOklahoma -37.7 · mkt Oklahoma -40.5
LeanUTEP +40.5
Best priceUTEP +40.5 -108best of 7
WinOklahoma 100%
Florida Atlantic @ Florida1.9 pt gap
Model vs mktFlorida -27.9 · mkt Florida -26.0
LeanFlorida -26.0
Best priceFlorida -26 -106best of 8
WinFlorida 98%
Full Slate — SEC · Week 1 · 10 games
East Carolina @ AlabamaAlabama 86%
Model
Alabama -15.1 · mkt Alabama -26.0
proj East Carolina 18.6 · Alabama 33.7
leans East Carolina +26.0
◆ Mid 1
Alabama -25.5 -115FanDuel
East Carolina +26.5 -108DraftKings
Clemson @ LSULSU 59%
Model
LSU -3.3 · mkt LSU -11.0
proj Clemson 25.2 · LSU 28.5
leans Clemson +11.0
◆ Mid 1
LSU -11 -111LowVig
Clemson +12 -109BetRivers
Louisville @ Ole MissOle Miss 84%
Model
Ole Miss -13.8 · mkt Ole Miss -6.5
proj Louisville 18.1 · Ole Miss 31.9
leans Ole Miss -6.5
◆ Mid 2
Ole Miss -4.5 -110BetOnline
Louisville +6.5 -108DraftKings
Texas State @ TexasTexas 95%
Model
Texas -23.8 · mkt Texas -30.5
proj Texas State 16.0 · Texas 39.9
leans Texas State +30.5
◆ Mid 1
Texas -30.5 -110DraftKings
Texas State +31.5 -115FanDuel
Baylor @ AuburnAuburn 83%
Model
Auburn -13.4 · mkt Auburn -6.8
proj Baylor 20.1 · Auburn 33.5
leans Auburn -6.8
◆ Mid 1
Auburn -7 -105DraftKings
Baylor +8 -113BetRivers
Missouri State @ Texas A&MTexas A&M 100%
Model
Texas A&M -44.2 · mkt Texas A&M -38.5
proj Missouri State 4.8 · Texas A&M 49.0
leans Texas A&M -38.5
◆ Mid 1
Texas A&M -38.5 -110DraftKings
Missouri State +39.5 -110FanDuel
UTEP @ OklahomaOklahoma 100%
Model
Oklahoma -37.7 · mkt Oklahoma -40.5
proj UTEP 8.6 · Oklahoma 46.2
leans UTEP +40.5
◆ Mid 1
Oklahoma -39.5 -115FanDuel
UTEP +40.5 -108DraftKings
Florida Atlantic @ FloridaFlorida 98%
Model
Florida -27.9 · mkt Florida -26.0
proj Florida Atlantic 14.6 · Florida 42.4
leans Florida -26.0
◆ Mid 0.5
Florida -26 -106LowVig
Florida Atlantic +26.5 -108DraftKings
Kent State @ South CarolinaSouth Carolina 99%
Model
South Carolina -32.9 · mkt South Carolina -34.5
proj Kent State 13.8 · South Carolina 46.7
leans Kent State +34.5
◆ Mid 0
South Carolina -34.5 -110DraftKings
Kent State +34.5 -110DraftKings
UL Monroe @ Mississippi StateMississippi State 98%
Model
Mississippi State -28.8 · mkt Mississippi State -28.5
proj UL Monroe 12.6 · Mississippi State 41.4
leans Mississippi State -28.5
◆ Mid 0
Mississippi State -28.5 -108DraftKings
UL Monroe +28.5 -112DraftKings
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.