CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 8 · Pac-12 · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Pac-12 · Week 8 · 3 games
Utah State @ Texas StateTexas State 75%
Model
Texas State -9.7 · mkt Texas State —
proj Utah State 20.6 · Texas State 30.3
Total
proj 51.0
Boise State @ Washington StateWashington State 63%
Model
Washington State -4.8 · mkt Washington State —
proj Boise State 21.7 · Washington State 26.5
Total
proj 48.2
San Diego State @ Colorado StateSan Diego State 73%
Model
San Diego State -8.8 · mkt San Diego State —
proj San Diego State 34.6 · Colorado State 25.7
Total
proj 60.3
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.