CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 8 · Mountain West · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Mountain West · Week 8 · 4 games
North Dakota State @ New MexicoNew Mexico 81%
Model
New Mexico -12.3 · mkt New Mexico —
proj North Dakota State 21.9 · New Mexico 34.3
Total
proj 56.2
San José State @ NevadaNevada 53%
Model
Nevada -1.1 · mkt Nevada —
proj San José State 25.9 · Nevada 27.0
Total
proj 52.9
Hawai'i @ Northern IllinoisHawai'i 68%
Model
Hawai'i -6.8 · mkt Hawai'i —
proj Hawai'i 32.6 · Northern Illinois 25.8
Total
proj 58.4
Air Force @ WyomingAir Force 69%
Model
Air Force -7.1 · mkt Air Force —
proj Air Force 32.0 · Wyoming 24.9
Total
proj 56.9
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.