CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 4 · Mountain West · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Full Slate — Mountain West · Week 4 · 6 games
Northern Illinois @ Georgia StateNorthern Illinois 52%
Model
Northern Illinois -0.8 · mkt Northern Illinois —
proj Northern Illinois 25.0 · Georgia State 24.2
Total
proj 49.1
Hawai'i @ WyomingHawai'i 60%
Model
Hawai'i -3.5 · mkt Hawai'i —
proj Hawai'i 30.5 · Wyoming 27.0
Total
proj 57.4
Oregon State @ UTEPOregon State 60%
Model
Oregon State -3.6 · mkt Oregon State —
proj Oregon State 31.3 · UTEP 27.7
Total
proj 59.0
Air Force @ NevadaAir Force 74%
Model
Air Force -9.3 · mkt Air Force —
proj Air Force 29.9 · Nevada 20.6
Total
proj 50.5
New Mexico @ New Mexico StateNew Mexico 77%
Model
New Mexico -10.4 · mkt New Mexico —
proj New Mexico 32.3 · New Mexico State 21.9
Total
proj 54.2
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.