CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 3 · Mountain West · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Full Slate — Mountain West · Week 3 · 7 games
UTEP @ MichiganMichigan 100%
Model
Michigan -40.4 · mkt Michigan —
proj UTEP 4.0 · Michigan 44.4
Total
proj 48.5
Northern Illinois @ ArizonaArizona 98%
Model
Arizona -28.0 · mkt Arizona —
proj Northern Illinois 12.7 · Arizona 40.7
Total
proj 53.4
New Mexico @ OklahomaOklahoma 95%
Model
Oklahoma -24.0 · mkt Oklahoma —
proj New Mexico 15.6 · Oklahoma 39.6
Total
proj 55.1
North Dakota State @ Sacramento StateSacramento State 67%
Model
Sacramento State -6.3 · mkt Sacramento State —
proj North Dakota State 23.1 · Sacramento State 29.4
Total
proj 52.5
Wyoming @ Central MichiganCentral Michigan 64%
Model
Central Michigan -4.9 · mkt Central Michigan —
proj Wyoming 24.3 · Central Michigan 29.3
Total
proj 53.6
Nevada @ Middle TennesseeNevada 51%
Model
Nevada -0.5 · mkt Nevada —
proj Nevada 27.0 · Middle Tennessee 26.6
Total
proj 53.6
Fresno State @ San José StateFresno State 74%
Model
Fresno State -8.9 · mkt Fresno State —
proj Fresno State 34.2 · San José State 25.3
Total
proj 59.6
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.