CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 13 · Mountain West · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

All Big Ten SEC Big 12 ACC FBS Independents American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA

Season2026 2025 2024

Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Full Slate — Mountain West · Week 13 · 6 games

Sacramento State @ Hawai'iHawai'i 93%

Model

Hawai'i -21.0 · mkt Hawai'i —

proj Sacramento State 17.8 · Hawai'i 38.8

Total

proj 56.5

Nevada @ UNLVUNLV 89%

Model

UNLV -17.2 · mkt UNLV —

proj Nevada 21.2 · UNLV 38.3

Total

proj 59.5

Air Force @ New MexicoNew Mexico 79%

Model

New Mexico -11.2 · mkt New Mexico —

proj Air Force 23.4 · New Mexico 34.6

Total

proj 58.0

North Dakota State @ San José StateSan José State 67%

Model

San José State -6.3 · mkt San José State —

proj North Dakota State 23.1 · San José State 29.4

Total

proj 52.5

UTEP @ Northern IllinoisNorthern Illinois 65%

Model

Northern Illinois -5.5 · mkt Northern Illinois —

proj UTEP 22.3 · Northern Illinois 27.8

Total

proj 50.1

UConn @ WyomingUConn 74%

Model

UConn -9.0 · mkt UConn —

proj UConn 30.9 · Wyoming 21.9

Total

proj 52.7

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.