CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 11 · Mountain West · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Full Slate — Mountain West · Week 11 · 5 games
San José State @ Air ForceAir Force 89%
Model
Air Force -17.6 · mkt Air Force —
proj San José State 20.2 · Air Force 37.8
Total
proj 58.0
North Dakota State @ Hawai'iHawai'i 77%
Model
Hawai'i -10.7 · mkt Hawai'i —
proj North Dakota State 22.3 · Hawai'i 33.0
Total
proj 55.3
Nevada @ Northern IllinoisNorthern Illinois 58%
Model
Northern Illinois -2.7 · mkt Northern Illinois —
proj Nevada 25.3 · Northern Illinois 28.0
Total
proj 53.3
Wyoming @ UTEPWyoming 63%
Model
Wyoming -4.8 · mkt Wyoming —
proj Wyoming 29.8 · UTEP 25.0
Total
proj 54.8
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.