CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 10 · Mountain West · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

All Big Ten SEC Big 12 ACC FBS Independents Pac-12 American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA

Season2026 2025 2024

Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Full Slate — Mountain West · Week 10 · 5 games

Wyoming @ UNLVUNLV 87%

Model

UNLV -15.8 · mkt UNLV —

proj Wyoming 21.9 · UNLV 37.7

Total

proj 59.7

Air Force @ ArmyArmy 82%

Model

Army -13.1 · mkt Army —

proj Air Force 19.3 · Army 32.4

Total

proj 51.7

Northern Illinois @ San José StateSan José State 61%

Model

San José State -3.9 · mkt San José State —

proj Northern Illinois 23.1 · San José State 27.0

Total

proj 50.1

New Mexico @ NevadaNew Mexico 61%

Model

New Mexico -4.0 · mkt New Mexico —

proj New Mexico 29.7 · Nevada 25.7

Total

proj 55.4

Hawai'i @ UTEPHawai'i 75%

Model

Hawai'i -9.7 · mkt Hawai'i —

proj Hawai'i 28.3 · UTEP 18.5

Total

proj 46.8

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.