CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 1 · Mid-American · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Toledo @ Michigan State16.6 pt gap
Model vs mktToledo -6.1 · mkt Toledo +10.5
LeanToledo +10.5
Best priceToledo +11.5 -115best of 7
WinToledo 67%
Ohio @ Nebraska13.1 pt gap
Model vs mktNebraska -10.4 · mkt Nebraska -23.5
LeanOhio +23.5
Best priceOhio +23.5 -112best of 8
WinNebraska 77%
Akron @ Wake Forest6.8 pt gap
Model vs mktWake Forest -15.7 · mkt Wake Forest -22.5
LeanAkron +22.5
Best priceAkron +22.5 -112best of 7
WinWake Forest 87%
Massachusetts @ Rutgers5.1 pt gap
Model vs mktRutgers -35.6 · mkt Rutgers -30.5
LeanRutgers -30.5
Best priceRutgers -30.5 -110best of 5
WinRutgers 99%
Ball State @ Ohio State4.7 pt gap
Model vs mktOhio State -45.3 · mkt Ohio State -50.0
LeanBall State +50.0
Best priceBall State +50.5 -112best of 7
WinOhio State 100%
Sacramento State @ Eastern Michigan4.3 pt gap
Model vs mktEastern Michigan -12.3 · mkt Eastern Michigan -8.0
LeanEastern Michigan -8.0
Best priceEastern Michigan -7.5 -112best of 7
WinEastern Michigan 81%
Miami (OH) @ Pittsburgh4.3 pt gap
Model vs mktPittsburgh -11.7 · mkt Pittsburgh -16.0
LeanMiami (OH) +16.0
Best priceMiami (OH) +16.5 -106best of 6
WinPittsburgh 80%
Western Michigan @ Michigan3.3 pt gap
Model vs mktMichigan -23.2 · mkt Michigan -26.5
LeanWestern Michigan +26.5
Best priceWestern Michigan +26.5 -108best of 7
WinMichigan 95%
Full Slate — Mid-American · Week 1 · 11 games
Toledo @ Michigan StateToledo 67%
Model
Toledo -6.1 · mkt Toledo +10.5
proj Toledo 33.8 · Michigan State 27.7
leans Toledo +10.5
◆ Mid 1
Michigan State -10.5 -110DraftKings
Toledo +11.5 -115FanDuel
Ohio @ NebraskaNebraska 77%
Model
Nebraska -10.4 · mkt Nebraska -23.5
proj Ohio 21.4 · Nebraska 31.8
leans Ohio +23.5
◆ Mid 0
Nebraska -23.5 -108DraftKings
Ohio +23.5 -112DraftKings
Akron @ Wake ForestWake Forest 87%
Model
Wake Forest -15.7 · mkt Wake Forest -22.5
proj Akron 18.6 · Wake Forest 34.3
leans Akron +22.5
◆ Mid 0
Wake Forest -22.5 -108DraftKings
Akron +22.5 -112DraftKings
Massachusetts @ RutgersRutgers 99%
Model
Rutgers -35.6 · mkt Rutgers -30.5
proj Massachusetts 9.9 · Rutgers 45.6
leans Rutgers -30.5
◆ Mid 0
Rutgers -30.5 -110DraftKings
Massachusetts +30.5 -110DraftKings
Ball State @ Ohio StateOhio State 100%
Model
Ohio State -45.3 · mkt Ohio State -50.0
proj Ball State 9.5 · Ohio State 54.7
leans Ball State +50.0
◆ Mid 1
Ohio State -49.5 -106LowVig
Ball State +50.5 -112DraftKings
Sacramento State @ Eastern MichiganEastern Michigan 81%
Model
Eastern Michigan -12.3 · mkt Eastern Michigan -8.0
proj Sacramento State 21.9 · Eastern Michigan 34.3
leans Eastern Michigan -8.0
◆ Mid 1
Eastern Michigan -7.5 -112DraftKings
Sacramento State +8.5 -110BetMGM
Miami (OH) @ PittsburghPittsburgh 80%
Model
Pittsburgh -11.7 · mkt Pittsburgh -16.0
proj Miami (OH) 20.2 · Pittsburgh 31.9
leans Miami (OH) +16.0
◆ Mid 1
Pittsburgh -15.5 -110DraftKings
Miami (OH) +16.5 -106LowVig
Western Michigan @ MichiganMichigan 95%
Model
Michigan -23.2 · mkt Michigan -26.5
proj Western Michigan 14.4 · Michigan 37.7
leans Western Michigan +26.5
◆ Mid 1
Michigan -25.5 -112FanDuel
Western Michigan +26.5 -108DraftKings
Central Michigan @ New MexicoNew Mexico 75%
Model
New Mexico -9.4 · mkt New Mexico -12.5
proj Central Michigan 23.9 · New Mexico 33.3
leans Central Michigan +12.5
◆ Mid 0
New Mexico -12.5 -108DraftKings
Central Michigan +12.5 -112DraftKings
Kent State @ South CarolinaSouth Carolina 99%
Model
South Carolina -32.9 · mkt South Carolina -34.5
proj Kent State 13.8 · South Carolina 46.7
leans Kent State +34.5
◆ Mid 0
South Carolina -34.5 -110DraftKings
Kent State +34.5 -110DraftKings
San José State @ Eastern MichiganEastern Michigan 58%
Model
Eastern Michigan -3.0 · mkt Eastern Michigan -3.8
proj San José State 25.7 · Eastern Michigan 28.7
leans San José State +3.8
◆ Mid 1
Eastern Michigan -3.5 -106FanDuel
San José State +4.5 -106LowVig
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.